저자: Pasha · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리의 2025년 1분기 13F 보고서를 분석. 버리가 대부분 중국주(알리바바, 징동, 핀둬둬)와 여러 종목을 매도하고 에스티로더 한 종목만 남겼으며 평단 63달러 부근에서 추가 매수했다고 설명. 몰리나헬스케어 손실 추정, 시장 급락 후 리테일 매수세 유입과 스마트머니 이탈을 언급. 개별 종목 가격 방향에 대한 본인의 명시적 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
What's going on everybody? Michael Bur just posted his quarter 1 of 202513F filing and we're going to be going over his holdings and what he sold. So, let's get into it. So, jumping on to Data Roma, we just got, you know, the newest information here. We see Michael Bur's holdings as of 31st of March.
All he's in is SD Lauder. So, let's go over to the activity because he did have quite a bit of holdings before. Now look at this. I mean, this is a crazy sell-off. We did see a crazy sell-off in the market um you know, for probably a couple months. It was probably one of the um biggest sell-offs in such a short time period as well as an insane recovery just in the overall market.
Now, looking through these, it, you know, it looks like all Chinese stocks are out of the picture. So, let's just go over the top five sells, I would say, because you know, I don't really care about these. He sold them off. Um, but let's just go through these one by one. So, Alibaba, we'll go year to date.
Alibaba, he was adding to this position for quite some time. I think over a year, he was buying into it. Um, he was buying in the very low $80, $70 ranges. And guess what? he sold in the first three months of this year. So looking at Alibaba, he was in a range of $80 to about $150 or so. So he was probably exiting around this resistance.
And you know, we never know. He could have potentially entered back in over the past 3 months um at the sub 100, but who knows what he was doing. Overall this position he probably exited at almost 100% gain on average. So that's Alibaba. It's definitely interesting. He's dropping all of his Chinese holdings.
So same with the Chinese. We got two more by do looking at the year to date. Looks like he had a range of exit anywhere from 77 to about $101. also one of those that essentially sold off after that. Um, I'll show you guys later in the video just uh something kind of interesting just uh correlated to that really big sell-off that you guys have seen in the S&P 500 and in the NASDAQ.
A lot of these super investors definitely did not want to be holding, you know, at all-time highs. Um, and like I said, definitely very interesting that uh we've seen the market rebound so much. But JD also very interesting one. This one he probably received the most profit. I would say he was buying this one in the $25 range, potentially even less.
Um because I think this got down to about $20 a share and he was buying up um we saw multiple quarters he was buying this stock. Looking at the dollar range, anywhere from $33 to about 45. So almost a 100% return if he did sell on these highs. Um but this one has, you know, come back down about a 30% drop.
So next one is healthcare. We'll do Molina healthcare. And I think the rest of these we don't really have to go through. Um it's just interesting to see his top ones. Pin Duo Duo kind of falls into the same category as BU and JD, but Molina is an interesting one because it's healthcare and it's interesting that he ended up selling it off.
This is one of his more recent um purchases and I'm actually curious. I don't even know if he sold this at a profit because um he sold he bought this I'm pretty sure in quarter 4 and I mean we can we can look really quick activity um Molina Healthcare actually quarter three so he bought a little bit he bought even more his initial position quarter two so if we're looking at at the chart um quarter two would be right around here.
So, pretty dang high level for the initial position. Um, well, quarter two starts right over here. But anyways, it's pretty high um price point for where he was entering. He might have probably entered end of June, which is about $300. Then he added on to the position in quarter three, which was around, you know, over $300 a share.
And then looking at where he exited the full position, it was anywhere from $265 to um well, the highest it looks like is $334. So, it seems like he most likely took a small loss on the Molina Healthcare. And you know, it's a little bit unfortunate because it did have a little bit more pump in it. Um where he probably would have gotten like a 10, 20, maybe even 30% profit.
but does look like he either barely made break even or um like I said got a little bit of a loss on that one. Okay, so overall, you know, just a massive selloff. Michael Bur's not really new to this. He definitely has had a lot of quarters where he did massive sell-offs. This is probably the first quarter that I've seen in a long time where he essentially just leaves one stock in his portfolio.
Um he might have potentially opened up shorts that he has already closed out um because the you know quarter two we had the massive selloff and recovery. So that is possible. But the interesting thing is he has kept SD Lauder and doubled down on his position. So as you can see here he's got $13.2 $2 million approximately in these shares.
And just taking a look at, you know, where he doubled down on it. Um it's not looking that great. So he doubled down either um anywhere from $85 a share to I guess $63 a share. So that's $63 a share is the lowest that he doubled down on this. And since then it's kind of really stayed fairly flat and down.
Um so it's interesting that he doubled down on this. I mean we could look we could look at the uh I mean see how how crazy of a downtrend this has had um since its peak in 2020 end of 2021. So it's interesting that he's doubling down on this. It could be potentially a falling knife. But looking at valuations, um, it seems that the valuation might potentially not be too bad.
Uh, if we're looking at, let's see here. Well, actually, never mind. I was I was thinking of another company. This actually looks pretty terrible. So, they're losing cash and it's something that if we do go into a recession, we'll probably get hit even more. Uh, but yeah, interesting that he purchased this.
They have some free cash flow. Um, but their net income is negative. And I guess we could do a quick check of what exactly is going on with this. So yeah, their return on invested capital has plummeted. Um, their revenue growth has not been too bad, but overall their earnings per share has dropped significantly since 2021 and 2022.
So, it's an interesting one. I mean, we could check what their margins were. They're sitting about at about 10% net margin, a little bit more with free cash margin, and they've just kind of fallen down a little bit. Uh, recently, we could, I guess, go to Trading View just to see if we have an economic outlook on this one.
Just out of curiosity to see what Michael Bur's thinking. Like I said, since this is quarter one filing, you know, these super investors, they're able to file basically two and a half months after or sorry, one and a half months after the quarter ends. So, this is a little bit outdated information. It could be possible he already exited this position at a loss um and already picked up other positions, but this is the most recent information that we do have.
So as for analyst estimates for revenue outlook, I mean analysts are thinking 325 on earnings per share um in 2028 and that's almost that's like an 18 PE for uh revenue that's three and a half years out from now. So just interesting to see what what he's thinking with this one. I mean, we could look at price to book um on this, which is the the book value is yeah, not worth much.
Anyways, kind of interesting to see what he's thinking. One thing that I would like to mention is that this is something that we saw earlier in the year. Um this is basically what Smart Money um was doing. And guess what? a lot of smart investors were getting out of the market slowly. Um, and retail has been buying up and this incredible jump that we've seen overall is basically retail just buying buying buying and a lot of these money managers were actually selling um before that incredible dip which retail has bought up.
So, it'll be interesting to see what else happens. Um, if you guys want to uh want a review of, you know, Warren Buffetts or um any other money managers, you know, let me know. I'll keep them on my radar. Um, but Michael Bur is definitely the one that I'm most interested in. I think he's uh yeah, I think he's a interesting guy.
He's he's definitely outperformed the market. Um, he's done, you know, a lot of interesting stuff like shorting during the housing crash, things like that. So, I think he's the most interesting one to track. Anyways, make sure that you guys don't forget to like the video, comment down below, like I said, which professional money manager, you know, super investor you would actually want me to cover on these quarterly filings.
And you know what? Subscribe if you're not subscribed already. I appreciate you guys for watching and I'll see you in the next
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