저자: MichaelBurry및JamesRickards,소속미상출연자포함 · 외국인
요약 보기
금은 역사적으로 강세이며 2024년 초~5월 약 14% 상승해 S&P500(11.7%)을 상회했다. Burry는 1분기 금 관련 실물 펀드 Sprott Physical Gold Trust를 매수하는 등 금 비중을 늘렸고 알파벳·아마존은 매도했다. Rickards는 달러 통화량(17.9조) 대비 금 보유량(8,133톤, 7.2조 달러) 계산을 근거로 금이 온스당 약 27,500달러까지 갈 수 있다고 주장했다. 다만 2001년 대비 10배 상승 사례를 들며 장기 가능성을 강조했다.
다듬은 글
Legendary investors strongly support gold and expect a significant price increase. Prominent investors, most notably James Burry and Michael Borry, are very keen on investing in gold. Michael Borry, who became a legend after the film "The Big Shot" starring Christian Bale, recently dumped tech giants Alphabet and Amazon from his portfolio and invested heavily in gold.
Burry was one of the few investment fund managers who foresaw the 2008 housing crisis, betting against the tide on the mortgage market and making a huge profit. Since then, his portfolio has been closely watched by the public. According to Yahoo Finance, Skion Asset Management made several significant changes to its portfolio in the first quarter of 2024.
The most important changes were the sale of shares in Amazon and Alphabet, increased investments in the Chinese companies JD.com and Alibaba, and a large investment in the precious metals sector. Burry also made a significant bet on gold by purchasing 440,729 shares of the sports physics gold trust Phys, worth $7.6 million, at the end of the first quarter.
This makes it the fifth largest position in its portfolio. The official website of the closed-end fund states that it holds almost its entire assets in physical gold. A unique feature of the SportPhysical Goldtrast fund is that investors have the right to exchange their holdings monthly for physical metals, provided they reach a minimum redemption amount.
This requirement is very important because the shareholder must have enough units to achieve a full leverage of approximately 400 ounces or 12.4 kg, according to the article. High profit in the gold price: it seems to have succeeded again in predicting market movements. The price of investment gold rose from US$2,062 per ounce at the beginning of the year to around US $2,343 per ounce at the end of May, which corresponds to an increase of around 14%.
To put this extraordinary growth into perspective, it is good to know that it significantly outperforms the leading stock index, the S&P 500, which rose by 11.7% in the same period. Investment guru James Rards even expects an even higher rise in the As Yahoo Finance reports, Richards predicts that an ounce of gold will reach $27,553 in the future, representing a tenfold increase.
The investor offered an interesting argument for his assessment: "My latest prediction is that gold could actually exceed the $27,000 mark. I'm not saying this to attract attention or shock people; it's not speculation, it's the result of thorough analysis," Richards wrote on his blog, "The New Gold Standard." Richards explained that in a system where fiat currencies like euros or dollars can be freely exchanged for gold at a fixed price, a high gold price leads investors to sell gold for currencies, while a low price tempts them to buy gold.
He pointed out that the money supply in the US is $17.9 trillion and that maintaining confidence in the stability of the currency would require 40% gold backing. This was a legal requirement for the Federal Reserve from 1913 to 1946. In other words, the US should have a portfolio worth They possess $7.2 trillion and currently have 8,133 tons of gold reserves.
The final step of Recard's calculation is relatively simple: he calculated the value of $7.2 trillion based on a mass of 8,133 tons of gold and arrived at the calculation that gold should be worth $27,533 per ounce. That would be a whopping 1,000% more than today's value. However, it should be noted that this would n't be the first time the value of gold has increased almost tenfold in a short period.
At the beginning of the millennium, in 2001, gold was worth about $270 per ounce, while its value this year exceeded $400 per ounce. Thanks for watching, see you in the next video.
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