저자: NicolasMerton · 외국인
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비트코인 단기 조정 후 중기 상승 가능성을 주장하며, 주식시장 고점 신호와 연준 양적완화 기대를 근거로 든다. 비트코인: 단기적으로 6,000~6,500달러대(6,000 지지선, 5,500 가능성)까지 조정 후 재상승을 예상. 일봉 RSI가 과열(88 부근)이고 이중천장 형태라 단기 급락 가능성을 언급. 비트코인 중장기: 2019~2020년에 걸쳐 9,000~10,000달러, 나아가 15,000~20,000달러까지 상승 가능하다고 전망. 2020~2021년에는 큰 상승이 나올 것이라 확신. 2,000달러 하락 가능성은 낮다고 봄. 주식시장: 나스닥·다우·S&P500이 삼중 또는 이중천장 형태이며 상승쐐기 패턴에서 하락 이탈 중이라 진단. 나스닥 7,600, 다우 25,000, S&P500 2,800 이탈 시 공포 확산 우려. 거시 변수: 연준이 금리를 인하하지 않고 추가 양적완화 언급도 없어 주식 상승 동력이 약해졌다고 판단. 기업 자사주 매입이 시장을 떠받쳐 왔다고 평가하며, 각국 중앙은행의 긴축(양적긴축)과 금리 상승이 압박 요인이라고 설명. 기관 자금: 피델리티의 기관투자자용 암호화폐 거래 서비스가 비트코인의 기관 헤지 수단화 기대를 키우지만, 당장 모든 기관에 열리지는 않아 과도한 기대는 경계해야 한다고 언급. 리스크: 단기 급락 가능성, 과열 지표, 주식시장 붕괴 시 전이 위험, 규제·스테이블코인 등 불확실성. 출연자는 장기 상승 견해를 유지하며 매수 주문을 6,000~6,500달러대에 걸어두었다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
let's go not everyone my name is Nicolas Merton here a day - - in today's May 20th of 2019 old folks I hope y'all are having a fantastic day wherever you are and today we're gonna be talking about the dichotomy in tones between crypto currency markets and equity markets predominantly US stocks as we've seen recently in most major indices we've been seeing a similar pattern of topping out on most of the major indices from the Nasdaq - the Dow Jones into the S&P 500 and this is causing a lot of fear that we might start to see a serious pullback over the next few weeks and months an exit of a lot of liquidity or money out of these markets well work at Abbas may be going too well there is one sector that has been doing well this year in a year where pretty much every asset has been down and that is cryptocurrencies so we're gonna be talking about the short term of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and also what to watch in equities in order to see if maybe this could be the catalyst that carries crypto forward so let's go ahead and dive in - thanks guys so we've already talked about in the previous video back a few days ago when we were down in this price range at 7300 yesterday we had a really big pop up out of nowhere not as substantial of volume as we'd seen before but nonetheless the price made it there so as we've been in this kind of range here we've been talking about how we do expect Bitcoin to come down to the six thousand two to five thousand and I'd say much more reasonable around 5500 range possibly on this Green Line that we've seen it's held support for a little while the reason I do see this happening guys is because there is a few different things at play here a V RSI is pretty dramatically for extended we had two different periods as you can see here on the chart where the RSI was reaching an 88 point range daily that's not very healthy to see especially seeing as if we take a look at indicators again VT things that actually kind of value Bitcoin as a network or see how overvalued or undervalued Bitcoin is depending on the network volume that it's you know network traffic it's basically servicing we can see that it's obviously right now it's technically in fundamentally overbought the price has gone pretty much parabolic and I think this whole double top here kind of plays into that doesn't mean that I don't think bitcoin is set for some higher levels going into the rest this year this monster rally has definitely changed my tone on Bitcoin guys and as I'm gonna kind of dive into here over the next few minutes as much as I do believe in the short term we're gonna have a pretty sharp correction closing down a good chunk of these gains getting the our side back down here to an oversold range and something that would be much more technically favorable I do believe that there is good reason why Bitcoin is moving the way it is I do believe that it will continue to possibly move higher over the next one next two to three months here we could substantially see Bitcoin go up to ten K and the reason I stand by that is because of what's going on in traditional markets so there's funny article I just want to kind of dive into here and I think it kind of plays into it the European Central Bank does not consider crypto as a threat okay and they see a future in stable coins well this is actually really funny so I actually like stable coins person I think they're going to be necessary for the transitional phase in order before we can really use crypto as currency to be fair guys let's just be real for a second as much as I love crypto as a you know it's a future store value as a you know investment vehicle and I do want to see crypt of being used as currency it's too volatile right now for me to give you Bitcoin for something and in six weeks time you know you're going to have a valuation of that Bitcoin being something completely different I can tell you well most businesses even that working crypto don't pull their crypto right so it's very important to you know kind of keep this in mind but the European Central Bank what's really funny is they don't consider kryptos a threat but it is going to be a major threat in the sense of stripping value from traditional markets right this is something that they haven't considered yet the fact that it could strip a lot of liquidity and valuation from equity markets from property markets to something that doesn't have a tied to national origin that's very very important guys something that is a I think I think we had basically Anthony papahana on CNBC is doing an interviewer a piece with Kevin O'Leary and the team over at CNBC and actually liked his presentation there it's a non correlated asset it's not correlated to anything it is actually more than anything the perfect hedging asset that we've seen and as we can see here futures markets from the Nasdaq to the S&P 500 to the Dow Jones to the Russell 2000 all practically down you know 0.5 to 1.5 percent here so the market is looking to open down actually I think we just opened up here so we can take a look at the nasta at the current price action and I can tell you how this chart is not looking good here so there's a few different things to me to talk about the first thing is that this was pretty clear we talked about this if you guys remember you can go back to my daily updates we focused and on this ascending ascending wedge here which is obviously a bearish base basically a bearish pattern descending wedges where you have lowering lows and lowering highs and coiling at a price usually leads to a breakout in this case where you have hiring lows and higher highs and it gets more and more narrow you tend to have a breakdown and we got that now people would say oh this has to do with the trade war this has to do with all of the kind of surface level things that the media is throwing at you but I got to be fair with you all I really don't believe this is the case what I do believe is happening here is that the market is finally reacting and obviously maybe in combination with the trade war in a variety of other macro factors its reacting to the fact that the Federal Reserve did not cut rates when markets reach back up to similar highs and it didn't provide any kind of word on possibly producing some next layer of quantitative easing which is basically where they inject capital into financial markets buying up financial assets and as we talked about we actually talked about this on my newsletter recently how basically the fad at this point with how high equity markets are they are going to have to take japan's style of etf buying basically buying up ETFs and stocks off of the actual equity market in their own nation they're going to have to go ahead and start buying up basically spy basically SPI so the spui ETF for the QQQ these are the the ETF that you can trade on some of the major indices they're gonna have to start buying up Apple shares a lot of major companies in the United States if they want to keep the game going because right now the risk to reward favoring before and a new investor to come in it's not very good and we can see that it's not many new buyers that are coming in it's been the stock buybacks that have been keeping up markets it's been all these really cheap ways of playing the game and keeping equity markets very high so again you guys probably know about all this I've talked about it before if you haven't heard me talk about it before there's a lot of great videos if you scroll back through my videos I'll possibly leave some link down below if he has are interested I talk about just how much they've been able to put into this market to keep it up but anyways major point here is that no matter if it's the trade war no matter if its monetary policy technically speaking if you see the Nasdaq for example break below 7600 or you see the Dow Jones break below 25,000 or if you see the sp500 grateful of 2,800 this is what I'm gonna start to see some serious fear in the market and honestly guys who can blame the market you basically almost have either what would be seen as a double top or close to a triple top here in the S&P 500 the Dow Jones a clear triple top around the twenty six five twenty six thousand five hundred five hundred point range and the Nasdaq this well which has been leading the market double topping yet again right when we made new highs on you know actually printed technical new highs it's right around the same range guy sits around around 80 to 100 so again it makes complete sense here it was it was screamingly obvious as you had this ascending wedge here in the market now why does this play into Bitcoin why am i you know rambling on about this like a crazy old man well the reason why is because I can't believe I'm using CNBC as an as an article you know kind of surface to talk about this but it is a very true we could possibly see because of fidelity because of all these new entries for institutional investing into cryptocurrencies that maybe just maybe we could see Bitcoin finally start to truly serve as a hedge for institutions in financial markets okay now I don't think it's gonna happen overnight and I think that there is a little bit of overhype in awe regards to the fidelity and fidelity brokerage services for trading cryptocurrencies in this case I'll say I'll go I didn't get the the reason why I think there's a little bit of hype the first point that we need to make clear is that as I talked about about a week ago this is not going to be open to everyone it's very important to understand it is not going to be opened up to all institutional clients right away they have a select few partners with the the company that they're going to allow to trade it first now these are I would assume some probably affluent high up clients in this case if they were being really picky about it but over time this will allow more and more as they open it up to other users to get access to these services so we need to keep that in check right and as I mentioned guys you know I can ramble on about it for weeks I really think this is what's keeping down markets so long as interest rates keep rising and along with that you see all major central banks really starting to cut the European Central Bank the Federal Reserve the People's Bank of China cutting assets down and about a year and a half's time of five hundred billion the Bank of Japan starting to flatline at the top and again just the whole cross of the board here we're not seeing quantitative easing we're seeing quantitative tightening there is a liquidation of assets here right there is a the central bank is in that cellar now are the central banks of the world and as interest rates rise capital gets more expensive so you have two major pressures being applied and not to mention that you've got this talk of a trade war and everything it would make sense that you could see again a non correlated asset that has a finite monetary supply getting some price action like this right it's not too confusing now again as I've talked about in the short term I do see us coming back down to this range at least in the low six thousands that's where I've got a decent amount of my buy orders said I've got some limit orders set across exchanges and that's what I'm gonna be adding on my positions because I do believe this is overextended in the short term that being realized I do believe as we step towards the habit as we have this kind of perfect storm of events across the world stage that we could very well see price come down to this range again continuing to support at 6,000 and eventually starting to move higher past that and going up towards 9,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 it's gonna take some time throughout 2019 and 2020 but as we go to 2020 and 2021 I'm very confident we could see some amazing movements in this market I have no doubt because guys Bitcoin itself with all the news it had back here with the BitFenix debacle with tether and you know all these fearful stories that came out the by Nance hack none of this could hold back Bitcoin because it doesn't change the fact that Bitcoin is still working Bitcoin has not broken its functionality it is working as intended it is still limited at 21 million coins there is not there was a or more than 21 million errors in the world each millionaire in the world couldn't own a Bitcoin if they wanted so if bitcoin is going to still you know go off of this assumption that it could potentially be the next store of value in the world with all the properties that it has these are going to be very exciting times so even though for example I have my buy orders down here around the I think it's 60 to 50 or like 6500 somewhere around there that's at least where I've been getting my first entries in if this comes down and it starts to pick back up don't get too greedy guys don't get too greedy wanting it to go down to a certain price range don't and please for the long god its own thing this is probably going to 2,000 or anything like that guys I hope at this point you guys realize it's probably not gonna go there I mean it could be I could be wrong you know you know there's very much a chance Bitcoin it's done this so you know it can do pretty much anything but I don't really see that happening so above all guys I've rambled today as always like to do a little bit of rambling from time to time you think it's necessary when you're diving through a lot of information but I'd like to know what you all think about this are you guys long equities do you think I'm completely wrong on it and also are you guys you know still betting cryptos gonna carry on with this parabolic price action or do you believe we could have the short-term correction and what do you think about the long-term as well you know I guess I love when you guys can leave this serious solid paragraph responses because I do read them I try to check out the comments when I can and give you guys a reply and let you know what I'm thinking as well so feel free to put it down below and if you guys liked the video please give it a thumbs up as well as supporting us on brave if you guys use the brave browser I always appreciate it it helps to support the channel and it's another kind of income stream that can help us do this more full-time so anyways outside of that guys that's it for the video thank you all so much for watching I hope you are a fantastic start to your week wherever you are but until the next video I'll see you all in the next one stay tuned you
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