저자: Chopin · 외국인
요약 보기
팔란티어(PLTR)의 4대 제품(Gotham·Foundry·Apollo·AIP)을 소개하며 국방·기업 고객 확대 가능성을 강조. 2025년 1분기 미국 상업고객 65% 증가, 고객 락인(stickiness)과 높은 고객생애가치를 근거로 장기 성장 가능성 제시. 단기적으로는 전쟁 확대에 따른 국방 수요 증가로 유리하다고 보나, 주가수익비율 657배의 높은 밸류에이션은 조정 위험으로 경고. Q2 실적 발표 전 주가 예측은 하지 않겠다고 명시.
다듬은 글
Today, let's talk about Palantir, the AI lord. I call it Palantir because my favorite king is Nvidia. Hi, I'm Chopin, you can also call me Chopin. Many people like Palantir , but its stock has already risen so much. Is it worth buying more now? Should those who already hold shares take profits? Before making a judgment, we must first understand Palantir's background.
Palantir has four main products. The first is Gotham , a software used for defense data analysis and intelligence gathering. The 2011 assassination of Osama bin Laden by the United States was facilitated by Gotham. You can think of Gotham as a super-powered military brain. When a soldier prepares to fight on the battlefield, Gotham is like a precise and fast analyst .
It can tell the soldier, "Hey, there's an enemy here! You can use missiles or rifles to deal with him!" Gotham will help locate the enemy and recommend the most suitable weapon . It can also control drones and satellites, like a commander, saying, "Go over there, take a picture of that area, take a picture in that direction." The biggest advantage of Gotham is that it can help decision-makers quickly determine what to do and what resources or weapons to use in a chaotic battlefield, so that every weapon can be used in the right place .
In other words, whether it is a cave, a bunker, or a mine, as long as there is Gotham, the place can become a place that uses AI big data analysis to shorten decision-making time. Gotham is so powerful that most people will buy Gotham. Then there is Palantir's second product , Foundry. Foundry is mainly provided to, for example, Company A, which wants to know which batch of products is most likely to fail .
By using Foundry to feed all the company's data into it and build an AI model, it can clearly know which machine in which factory and when produced the products that are most likely to fail. In other words, companies can use Foundry to capture all the data scattered in various departments and processes in the operation process , string all the data together and analyze them, so as to improve the company's operating efficiency.
Whether it is the financial industry, medical industry, manufacturing industry, or aviation industry, Foundry can basically be used to collect all operational data. For example, Airbus, an aircraft manufacturer , has used Foundry to collect aircraft sensor data, engine data, maintenance records, flight logs, parts inventory in and out, etc., stringing these data together to improve the operation process.
The third product is Apollo. Apollo is more like a background. An environment that ensures Gotham and Foundry can operate safely and smoothly even without an internet connection. Many businesses and government agencies must collect a large amount of data for analysis and decision-making without an internet connection .
This is often needed on battlefields, in factories, and on airplanes. The Apollo platform ensures that businesses and governments can use Palantir software smoothly even in private domains without cloud networks. Finally, the fourth product of Palantir is the now popular AIP. AIP combines large-scale language models with deep data analysis and AI technology to provide clients with more accurate and efficient decision support.
I know this might be a bit confusing, but let me give you an example. Imagine a US manufacturing company receives an alert that a hurricane may hit a distribution center in the southern United States, forcing it to temporarily close. They can use AIP to analyze the center's operations and help management make decisions.
In the past, it might have taken weeks or even days for management to decide whether to expedite, delay, or cancel an order . But now, with AIP, companies can make relatively accurate decisions in just days or even hours. AIP uses big data analysis to help managers make decisions much more quickly. I think PLTR's overall product plan is very comprehensive.
Let me summarize it for you. Our first product, Gotham, primarily uses AI big data analysis to integrate intelligence and make mission decisions. Gotham's applications are primarily in warfare, defense, and counterterrorism , so its clients are mostly government agencies and international organizations.
With the US government, Foundry's main function is to integrate data internally and build data models . It's primarily used for enterprise process optimization , targeting commercial clients. Apollo is a backend platform system, providing software deployment, updates, and applications. It's widely used by both government and commercial clients.
Finally, AIP integrates large AI models into the entire enterprise process, allowing non-engineers to use AI to improve decision-making efficiency . This is primarily used in operational decision-making for businesses, and is also widely used by both government and commercial clients. Through these four main products, PLTR not only assists clients with data analysis and AI big data analysis , but also provides practical assistance to businesses and governments during the actual decision-making stages.
This is why I 've been promoting Palantir since 2023. Palantir truly helps clients implement AI technology, and virtually any company can use the PLTR platform. However, PLTR's stock price is currently very expensive, rising from 7, 8, and 20 yuan to 160 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 657. Is it still a good time to buy PLTR?
If you already own shares, should you sell them? This brings us to the current global situation and the role of PLTR in it. But before that, let me remind you that I have a scam-free private community where I share many of my recent favorite companies and my investment strategies. If you don't want to join a bunch of scam-filled groups and want someone to discuss investment with you, please join my Chopard Investment Group!
OK, back to the point. From the Ukraine-Russia war, the Israel-Iran conflict, to the recent military conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, there have been so many wars and conflicts this year. Think about it, what role does the US government play in this? What does the US military need? When military conflicts escalate, Palantir has more advantages.
Why? Because the US military will need more AI support from Palantir , integrating intelligence, satellite data, and drone data so that they can make decisions more quickly. For example, when you assassinated Osama bin Laden, the United States used these resources to find Bin Laden's exact location.
For example, in May of this year, the US Department of Defense increased the amount of its original Maven Smart System contract with Palantir by $795 million. Although I also don't want a war to happen , the reality is that there have been a lot of wars this year. The more chaotic the world is and the more wars and conflicts there are, the more willing governments are to invest in high-value strategic AI tools like Palantir .
So in the short term, I think it will be relatively favorable for PLTR, unless there are unexpected negative policies or financial reports are significantly worse than expected. As for the long term, in addition to PLTR's advantages in the defense field, I believe its potential in the enterprise sector has just begun.
Ask the current manufacturing, energy, medical, and financial industries, who doesn't want to use AI to run internal data to optimize processes and reduce costs? Even a one-person company like me and a small and medium-sized enterprise want to use AI to optimize processes and speed up the pace, not to mention those larger corporate organizations.
According to Palantir's first quarter 2025 financial report, PLTR's number of US commercial customers has grown by 65% annually. It currently has 432 corporate customers, and there are more than 2,000 large companies in the United States , but PLTR only serves less than a quarter of them. So it still has a lot of room for growth, not to mention more overseas.
Its potential customers are currently Palantir's total number of commercial customers is 622 companies. This number should be even larger when the Q2 financial report comes out in a few days. In short, there are still very few overseas customers. This is what I think is the potential of PLTR. Of course, there may still be some regulatory restrictions or barriers between countries .
There may still be some barriers to entry in various countries, and it may not be so easy, but I think these can all be overcome. In addition, PLTR is really powerful. Suppose today we use Palantir's Gotham, Foundry or AIP system. Your entire decision-making logic, your entire data connection and your operation process will be truly embedded.
If you want to change the system , it is equivalent to reorganizing your entire brain and destroying your entire nervous system to rebuild it. The risk is higher and it may cost more money and more time to adapt. Compared with the general customers' preference for the products of general companies , the simple preference is more solid .
Therefore, the frequent use of this company's products is completely different from the adhesion that is welded into the body. This is why PLTR's Rule The reason why PLTR's revenue of 40 can climb quarter after quarter is that customer stickiness is very high , so naturally the customer lifetime value is also high.
Therefore, whether it is a business or a government, once they use PLTR's system platform, I think it is relatively difficult to leave or switch . The threshold is high. For example, units like the Pentagon and the intelligence agency are unlikely to change their systems again and again. Next, you may ask , PLTR will release its Q2 financial report in a few days .
Will it be good or bad? Okay, don't speculate on the stock price, or you'll get slapped in the face. But I think the performance shouldn't be too bad . Last quarter, the company announced a second-quarter financial plan of $934-938 million, a 54-million increase from the first-quarter's $884 million.
They also project 2025 revenue of $3.89 billion to $3.902 billion. It seems Palantir will continue to grow, no doubt. Palantir's financial plans have historically been relatively conservative, so I think it's possible that next quarter's revenue or financial plan will be higher than the previous quarter's.
Of course, we 'll have to wait and see the actual financial report in a few days. As for the stock price, that's not certain. Don't assume my comments will necessarily lead to a rise. I'm not a fortune teller. After all, analyst expectations can differ from actual conditions . News, general managers, and so on can also influence the stock price.
So, today's focus isn't on predicting the stock price, is it? Okay, everyone must be wondering: with valuations so high now , is it still worth buying ? Is it still worth buying with a P/E ratio of 657? If you own the stock now, should you sell it? Honestly, I can't give a definitive answer to these questions , as everyone's investment strategy is different.
But here's how I see it: If you're focusing on long-term holding and are looking at growth potential over the next five to ten years , I think PLTR's story is still going strong, and you could even say it's currently at a point. But from a short-term perspective, you really need to pay more attention to valuation.
While growth stocks typically have higher P/E ratios because investors are more willing to pay a higher price, I think the current stock price already reflects a lot of "dreams." If growth doesn't keep up, the stock price could easily see a significant correction . So, it's better to be cautious in the short term!
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