저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 급락장에서 한꺼번에 던지기보다 분할 매수를 시작하되, 추가 하락에 대비해 신중하게 접근하라는 입장. 시장 상황: 다우 약 767포인트 급락, S&P500 -2.98%, 나스닥 -3.47%. 미·중 무역전쟁이 통화전쟁 우려로 번지며 발생. 시장 폭이 하락 10 대 상승 1 수준으로 극단적 패닉 신호. 부정적 요인: 증권사 목표가 하향·투자의견 하향이 이어질 것으로 전망. 애플은 중국 관세 영향(아이폰 비용 증가)으로 추정치 하향 가능성 언급. 홍콩 시위와 대규모 총파업이 장기화되며 중국의 강경 진압 가능성과 추가 시장 충격 우려. 트럼프 관련: 트럼프가 중국산 수입품 관세를 10%에서 25%로 올릴 수 있으며, 민주당 후보 워런 등 대중 강경 정책 우려도 언급. 기술적 지표: 자체 오실레이터 -2.7로 아직 과매도권 진입 전. 완전한 바닥 확인은 아니라고 판단. 긍정적 요인: 10년 국채금리 약 1.73%로 배당주 매력 상승, 고배당주 수요 기대. 미국 내수 중심 기업 실적은 양호하다고 평가. 개별 종목: 마이크로소프트는 고점 대비 약 10% 하락, 중국 노출이 적어 대형주 중 안전한 편이며 120달러대에서 매수 가능하다고 언급. 뉴코어(Nucor)는 배당 3% 수준의 미국 대표 제조업체로 긍정적 평가. 한 시청자 보유 바이오 종목(BMD 추정)은 30% 하락 후 매도보다 보유 권고. 기타 언급 종목: 아마존, 보잉, 보고서 발표 기업(FANG 계열 언급). 출연자 전망: 단기 조정 가능성이 크고 추가 하락 시 분할 매수 기회로 보며, 장기적으로는 우량 기업 주식 보유를 권고.
다듬은 글
Quay mark I'll be e and put this all in context so call me at one eight hundred December three CBC or tweet me at Jim Kramer when will the pain stop and that's all anyone really wants to know if turn an agonizing day another agonizing day where the Dow plunged seven in 67 points it was actually worse at one point the S&P plummeted two point nine eight percent and the Nasdaq notice died three point four seven all that technology in there and this is because of China's latest move to retaliate against Trump by turning the trade war into a much feared currency war oh we had some big milestone city milestones that make me want to call the bottom now most other markets that's big what exactly what I've been doing but in this market I think we need to be a little more cautious especially because I fear an up opening tomorrow that will suck people in only revisit the lows we saw today and then some I'm not gonna let that happen on my watch we've reached a level where the downside volume to upside ratio was ten to one now a 10:1 the late great mark Haines always said you had to buy something you had to buy something you had to buy anything or you'll regret it remember he did call the Haynes bottom up some ten to one call I agree with the latest rains we've seen all kinds of stocks get thrown out even though they had nothing to do with China we're listening all kinds of crazy theories about what could happen next in the trade more people are beyond fearful they are outright to feed us and defeatism means they sell stocks I am NOT a defeatist I don't even like the talk isn't this exactly the kind of panic where you're supposed to buy stocks hand over fist not so fast on the one hand I do think you need to start putting money to work tomorrow not at the opening let's see what happens wait till it's down when the other hand I'm hesitant to tell you buy stocks aggressively you need to be a little cautious just need to be patient well it certainly paid off so far didn't it why because we've got a strange brew of positives and negatives here so let's take them one by one I'm going to start with the negatives and then we'll finish with the positives I like that first we're that going to stock downgrades where the sweeping day units from the big strategies where the number cuts off you want devaluation where waiting for the other shoe to drop here I'm betting many analysts who were paralyzed today will come out of their foxholes tomorrow now some will reiterate there by call it's easy to do it just at these lower levels but others will be anxious to turn tail especially when the stocks in question are still up huge and they can get out of Dodge without really hurting themselves you wonder why I'm not pounding the table here say dope let's just pick one let's pick the obvious let's pick Apple moving downwards with all the trades rimmel many analysts want to cut numbers better they just reported that spectacular number recently after all my Trump's latest tears do directly impact the cost of the iPhone sure people love Apple's products so maybe a 10% tax won't be that big a deal who knows what gets passed one who was but what is it but you better believe it means something I wish the White House to give it Apple an exemption because by slapping its hair from the iPhone they're just making apples Korean and Taiwanese rivals more competitive hey make Samsung great again the administration doesn't care they don't think like I do they want Apple out of China period now in a story so we need to see estimate cuts price target cuts and outright downgrades before we can get bullish on Apple or anyone else that's caught in the actual crosshairs of the trade war the second big negative Hong Kong people are ignoring this how can you ignore these images pro-democracy protesters have shut down the city there's a general strike they've turned violent they're fighting running battles with police in the streets it's been nine weekends in a row how long can the Chinese government let this go on we've spent a lot of time talking about how President Xi can't afford to look weak in the trade negotiations I think you'll feel compelled to crackdown on Hong Kong for the same reason maybe he goes full Tiananmen Square on the city if he sends in the People's Liberation Army you better believe our stock market's gonna get hit again that doesn't mean we get bubbling socks but it does mean we got to be a little more cautious third- president Trump really does smell blood in the water here he thinks he has the Chinese government on the run you know I think the trade war is justified but Trump keeps getting increasingly inflammatory the more he ratchets up the tension the more stocks will indeed come down and he's willing to accept that again I agree that it's time to take on the Chinese I just wish it weren't by angry tweets now I have it on pretty good authority that the president wants all the tariffs on Chinese imports the 25 percent instead of just someone 10 someone 25 as he sees a higher tires give us more leverage so after this new duty 10% import Duty goes into effect on September 1 I'm betting we'll see another round of tariff hikes and that's especially true now that the China's playing hardball letting its currency drift lower versus the dollar to offset the impact of the tariffs now it's easier to raise tariffs on all goods to 25 and then hold out the olive branch of cuts back to 10 if the Chinese offer to change the ways and mean it forth I think the Chinese government has misread the political situation here in America totally misread it they want to wait Trump out and make a deal with more friendly Democratic administration but that depends on who the Democrats nominee Lisbon warns the second place in a number of polls tops in Iowa and if you read our position papers she's even tougher on the Chinese than Trump is final reason to be cautious the technicals even after today's brutal breakdown we still aren't actually oversold the averages have been flying so high for so long now we're just taking out a lot of levels of the downside which means there's no real natural place to land I'm waiting for the proprietary SMP oscillator that I pay for I followed hit -5 that's a classic sign that we've come down too far too fast but we aren't there yet in fact we're really at minus 2.7 that's not good so if we're waiting for all these shoes to drop why even bother to try pick stocks at all why am I still saying you should get involved and start buying tomorrow simple because bond yields which everyone say who's so scared they've plummeted right now the benchmark ten-year Treasuries giving you a 1 point 7 3 percent return if you're an investor who wants income and a lot of people do dividend stocks are pretty much the only game in town so there's a whole cohort of 3% yielders that's become a lot more attractive here stay tuned it for the break for a list of my favorites for now all you need to know is the interest rates in the rest of the world are so low you better believe our scheme to lower if only from pure pinnacle the lower people flee into bonds as a safe haven that puts downward pressure on those yields Plus here's a little reality check overall earnings have been quite good for all sorts of companies both domestic international we just had a fabulous quarters with a live person and at Fria the pod company and both are on tonight you'll hear the stories after the bell we got a big nificent quarter from Kramer fav take to interact with that Strauss that's not deserves to be higher sure the stocks with overseas exposure might have more downside but the domestic games are viable and I think a lot of the Bible right now again want a downtick don't pay up at the openings up please I'll find you don't forget the president is a mercurial man the Dow Jones Industrial Average keeps plummeting Oh first he lashes out a Fed chief j-pal stewardship and that's an easy one I hear Jay where he might leave some positive chatter about the trade negotiations the China it just needs a channel i tantalizing of a Wall Street to make the panic stop that's a time tomorrow we will open down a lot I mean why not I mean what does he have a loose meanwhile tons of stocks are down dramatically many are already down 10 percent from their highs that's usually where I start to like to buy emphasis on the word start you want to buy your shares gradually in stages so you can back up the truck of the market keeps rolling over not yet remember the United States is a service-oriented economy not a big exporter so there's plenty domestic stuff that works here of course everything is obscured by the collapse of Fang plus Microsoft and today today's trading that's when panic looks like bottom line I have to tell you again nobody ever made a dime panicking take a deep breath keep your head remember that stocks get cheaper as they go lower their quality companies behind them if you slowly buy the stocks of copies with great fundamentals you'll be in good shape when the smoke clears am i promising that well Bri close to it let's go to Glenn in California Glenn how you doing Jim Cramer hey I'm a big fan of yours thank you very much yeah yes the reason why I'm calling is because I own Microsoft stock and everything and I know Microsoft is down at this moment but Microsoft is targeting hit hit up one hundred fifty three dollars a share what do you see microphone the next month well let's understand this stock has had a remarkable move okay it's a big cap stocks the biggest in it it's only got about what about ten from its high let it come in it is an expensive stock at this moment but it's doing quite well my take is that Microsoft is probably the best of the large caps to ride it out they have very little China and they're valued much more rigorously than saying Amazon is valued that was a brilliant quarter Satya Nadella shot the lights out that's one to buy in the 120s and I'll be paddling the table when it gets there let's go to Brianne and California Brianne hi mr.
Kramer thank you so much for taking my call of course I had a question regarding the terrace and the federal rate cut and if that what kind of effect that will have on new corps you have the CEO I'm not too long ago and I bought some stock and it's not been doing so well I'm wondering with the buy yeah you don't want to cut and run nuclear-nuclear is a 3% yield it's got a great balance sheet it's gonna be the winners last man standing I know there's a lot of talk about recession year I don't like that I don't think it's reasonable not with employment the way it is not with the way the country is doing Nucor is a great American manufacturer may be among the best along with Boeing I still put Bowie in that category so I think that you're gonna be fine I actually think that below 50 buy some let's go to Steve and cowboy Steve we are Jim yeah I've been I've been watching since cut a little grammar days against China and felt very strongly that we should have tariffs Larry was the free trader is not something what's going on I know my stock today is low by a biomed I am down 30% this stock caught a bid today in a terrible market so should I sell tomorrow even if it continues to move higher or should I hold it here you know I really felt that that was a terrible overreaction last week and a BMD which is by the way the stock is up the most mess in p2000 3000 I guess it just felt like it kind of had it coming I personally think that you did the right thing this was the right level to to I think this was the right limit and I think that saying that I'm not sticking my neck out that much after what happened last week I own the worst day of 2019 it's important to remember to take a deep breath and I'm not a Zen guy or Zendesk I for that matter you can be doing some buying here but remain careful don't buy a stock that's up let it there's an up opening ignore it let the market come down do not be over anxious we'll make money tonight on an agonizing day I'm here to keep your eye on the prize I'll go through the rubble to find some opportunity for you then I want to focus on something positive last week áfreeá reported a true blowout quarter that sent the stairs up 41% in a single session I want to know what these guys are doing right and I've got the exclusive with the company's top exactly but first I'm hoping if the phone lines pay american we're gonna get through this together we always do and we got through 2009 this could be child's play so call me and stick with crep
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