저자: TomLee · 외국인
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시장 급락일 이후 Tom Lee는 연말 S&P500 목표치 3125를 유지하며 미국 주식이 여전히 가장 유망하다고 주장한다. 무역 갈등과 통화전쟁 우려는 인정하지만 미국 펀더멘털과 기업이익이 강해 상대적으로 잘 버틸 것이라고 본다. 글로벌 채권의 마이너스 금리 확산은 인구 감소에 따른 디플레이션 신호로 해석하며, 미국은 실질 GDP와 기업이익이 견조해 해외와 디버전스가 나타난다고 말한다. 이 디버전스가 향후 몇 년의 핵심 스토리라는 입장이다. 비트코인은 올해 달러와의 상관관계가 끊기고 주식과는 음의 상관, 금과는 양의 상관을 보이며 글로벌 리스크 헤지로 입증되고 있다고 평가한다. 기관 자금이 실제로 유입되고 있어 신고점 가능성이 높다고 본다. 금은 1350달러 돌파 이후 최근 급등이 추세를 강화했으며 더 오를 수 있다고 주장한다. 미국채는 금리 하락(가격 상승) 가능성을 언급하고 안전자산 선호도 강해질 것으로 본다.
다듬은 글
there was a rough day on Wall Street Stocks closing out their worst day of 2019 tech energy financials bearing the brunt of today's gain so what's next for your money let's bring in fun straps head of research Tom Lee Tom great to have you with us good to see you your year-end price target is 3125 yep how are you feeling about that today I still feel really confident about it I mean I feel like we're watching another horror movie a movie trailer right that miscommunication Trump tweets China retaliates but at the end of the day I think you know u.s.
still is the equity Tina right there's no other place to go I think that p.m. eyes are going to strengthen by the end of the year the long-term yield curves been communicating that for 16 months and you know this is the best year for equities since 2009 so I as much as I understand why markets are nervous I still think this is a bullish setup you're not worried about the possibility of a currency war yes I think that they're not only their currency war I think that there's a lot of nervousness across a lot of markets but I think the u.s.
is still pretty well-positioned fundamentally and I think you know if you think about how much is priced in you know the VIX term structure inverted today so I mean it's not like markets are just discovering nervousness they've been nervous for six days and today was a big crescendo so the bond markets are interesting we talk about this all the time 20 now five percent of all sovereign bonds negative yields with 50 year yields or nay I mean some stuff that you would never even considered ten years ago is any of this problematic at all I mean it it really speaks to I think the divergence of demographics you know me it to make things even worse high-yield bonds in Europe have negative yields right 14 high-yield issuers are issuing at negative rates but population where populations been shrinking we have negative yields and so I think it's deflationary so that US is still growing organically and I think real GDP and I think US corporate profits are strong so I think it's a divergence if you look at SP versus rest of the world it's really broken out to new highs I mean we're talking 50 your highs and I think that that's really the next couple years story so global turmoil volatility in the in the equity markets currency a currency war those would all be good things for Bitcoin and yet you don't necessarily think that for instance there's a currency war that's going to happen so why do you think bitcoin is going to launch to new highs on the back of all this yeah what bitcoins done something pretty interesting this year you know last couple years it's been really correlated to dollar so weak dollar has been good for Bitcoin strong dollars been weak and it's been really correlated to risk markets this year it's D linked from the dollar because the dollar has been strong bitcoins been up which is a real breakage it's gone negative on correlation to the equity market and now it's positively correlated to gold so I think Bitcoin is proving itself this year to be a hedge against global risks I think that makes an authentic institutional source of diversification I think that's going to help it propelled a new highs is it contradictory though time for you to say we're confident about a rally to 3125 we don't see all of these worries that everybody else is factoring in his worries as as real threats and yet we do see Bitcoin rallying because it's going to be a hedge against sure I think what yeah it's so you know not to be too glib ssme gonna 3125 is you know as a 5% in the second half of 2019 so it's basically what you expect in a normal year for equities after a really strong first half do does S&P and Bitcoin have to move up on the same days they don't you know we've sort of been bullish on Bitcoin because crypto winners over and the technicals aren't proving and I think there's a whole roadmap of how there's morphia to crypto on-ramps developing that's really bullish for Bitcoin but it doesn't have to be bullish for equities alright Tom great to see you it's only a fun strat what do you think Bitcoin goes now I think certainly new highs I mean so the one the one thing that I would say about Bitcoin for the first time since I've been in and in since 2013 we are actually starting to see real institutional players using Bitcoin as a hedge and buying into Bitcoin that was not the case a few years ago if you remember in 2017 we were all waiting for this herd to come and they never showed up the herd is here right now and people are allocating to it so that is a change this year so the store of value part of the Bitcoin story is changing now from a the alternative to central banks and fiat currencies would you say is I mean yeah I think I think people at the narrative of why you own big coin it's starting to unfold in front of our eyes we're seeing that happening we with these currency wars and the thing about Bitcoin I don't get too far up here but it's it's reflexive so the higher it goes the more you want to own of it because it's a better store of value as it goes up the other thing you are like many people out there watching the show and you don't want Bitcoin and don't think it's a hedge there are plenty of people who fall into that camp if not Bitcoin then what as your hedge in times like this oh well I mean first of all US Treasuries they're gonna go lower and and if you look at the relative spreads between Europe and all these you know 15 trillion in negative yielding bonds but also a flight to quality you're gonna get that there's no question look gold gold took basically five years to break out through 1350 and we've had a couple now surges in the last two months that have not only reinforced that move but certainly tell you that gold can go higher you
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