원문 보기
hello and welcome to the global dialogue I'm Shireen ban and joining me now is JP Morgan's Jamie Diamond thanks very much for joining us here and welcome back to India it's great to have you back this is your first visit since the pandemic I I'm thrilled to be back uh it's unbelievable and so every time I come here I love coming to India and your visit is coincided with the big event that JPMorgan emerging market index uh uh you know so you timed it appropriately didn't you yeah perfect I think it's a great sign they're in the index and uh yes so you know let's talk about India since you are here what's been the impression since this is your first visits post the pandemic we've just finished hosting the G20 and there's a lot of focus and attention on India and its potential as well as the economy what's your first impression of being back here so I love coming here I've been coming here since 2005.
we've gone from 6 000 employees to 60 000 employees they travel the world and they were it's not call centers anymore it's everything technology analytics cyber uh it's extraordinary tomorrow I go to a new Mumbai center with 10 000 people uh uh and then look at this conference I remember eight years ago or nine years ago when stars like 50 or 75 clients now it's 700 investors around the world you know 70 companies or 100 companies presenting I think the optimism about India is actually actually completely Justified well what you believe is driving that optimism today what would be the the two or three things that you believe are driving the confidence and the optimism in the India story today well I think I think I think modi's been doing a very good job and things like adhar to get a bank account to several thousand people simplifying taxes uh you know trying to open up more for foreign direct investment the international infrastructure program but just to give you universities here so we're not the only bank here there are lots of the banks with a lot of people but so is Accenture McKinsey and obviously you have your local you know Tata et cetera so those things are driving optimism it's not just because of the complications with China I think that's an opportunity I think some of this opportunity would some of his optimism would have been there anyway so given the opportunity that you see in India what is that going to potentially mean now for your plans for India you talked about how JP Morgan's grown here in India both in terms of the size of the business as well as the head count what could we expect from here on yeah I think it should be more of the same you know go to the corporate side Investment Banking cyber business we used to cover 10 to 20 companies here and we did research on them now we cover 150 plus you know we used to bank 20 or 30 multinationals coming to India now we bank I'm going to say 500 multinationals we help multinationals and also we Bank all your Indian companies in London Singapore America you know as we help them Finance or buy and do M A so my guess is the next 20 years then I'll just double again just a quick follow-up on the inclusion into the bond index and there's all kinds of estimates on what that could mean in terms of inflows into India anywhere between 25 to 40 billion dollars is the estimate over the next year and a half as the inclusion Works its way out typically what's been the previous experience of a country being included in the bond index what are the implications in the medium to long term yeah so our folks think it'll be like 25 billion it get you know it has to be bought so it gets bought over time but I think it's a wonderful thing when you index like that what it means about your Capital markets your rule of law your transparency your government financing the the indirect effect is more important you know what you want is capital foreign direct investment both you know in plant and equities and things you know Innovative companies and stuff like that so it's just one more very positive sign speaking of signs I want to understand from you what your key takeaway is about China at this point in time you were there in May and you said that the Outlook that you had on China was cautious when you talk about the risk rewards at this point in time how do you feel about China today and do you believe that we're done with the unraveling as far as the real estate sector is concerned or we're far from it yeah well I think the far more important you know to me this Ukraine war oil gas food migration it's affecting all Global relationships very importantly the one between America and China I think it America takes us very seriously I'm not quite sure the rest of the world does you know to have a European Democratic nation invaded under the threat of nuclear blackmail and I think there's been a good response but it's gonna it's gonna affect all of our relationships until somehow the war is resolved and India is going its own way you know they've made their priorities quite clear about National Security and what that means you know we're still there and obviously I'm an American Patriot so governments are going to set foreign policy not JP Morgan but I'm happy and I I think Americans should stop thinking that China is a 10-foot giant our GDP proposes 80 000 there's a 15.
we have all the foodborne and energy we need we've got the unbelievable benefits of free enterprise and freedom uh you know they're going to have their own issues and I'm not making fun of them they even have their own issues about demographics and energy and climate Etc I like the fact that the Americans are engaging them now Cody blinken Johnny Yellen Jake Sullivan and there are legitimatists around National Security unfair trade I hope the result though you know we don't have to be hostile about it there are going to be changes it is definitely not over yet so more engagement is what you would like to see more engagement and I understand it's going to cause more where you call a little bit it won't be unraveling I think it'll just be a change that flows over time about certain trade investment type of things and but it's not just America every country's be looking at its net what is National Security do I have Line energy line do I need semiconductor from China where do I get my rare Earths from that the world Ukraine woke everyone up to that and that's a permanent State of Affairs now you know the pandemic started to wake everybody up and then Ukraine accelerated this wake-up called social speak what are the long-term implications of what you're seeing play out as as foreign policy changes as National Security weighs on economic and government decisions uh you know the the US is rolling out the chips act for instance India is trying to partner with the US to ensure that we have a partnership as far as trips are concerned how do you see this impacting flows how do you see the impacting globalization moving forward yeah I think it's just going to change it so I don't think it's going to people say decoupling there's still globalization the nations are going to have companies and nations are going to be making determinations which change those flows that creates huge opportunity I think huge opportunity for India you know for services and certain manufacturing and and uh and it creates risk so I'm hoping the political leaders sit down have these conversations and make these changes in a way that's not completely disruptive but is dwarfed by the risk of war and nuclear proliferation things like that so I think we have to be very cautious about it but it's an opportunity for India and hopefully you're going to seize it I also think by the way it's affecting Global relationships though Indian American Natural Partners now you have to be you know you're here so you're between Russia and China you have to be kind of non-aligned but we're your best friend I mean anyone who doesn't think that through hasn't thought really carefully yes we can we can see that I mean there's been a lot of back and forth between President Biden and prime minister I'm thrilled that they're having those conversations and I think we've got to do a better job on the trade and investment side okay not just the labor and and uh when you say a better job on the trade investment side what do you mean that we we should sit down with India and negotiate better trade and investment relationships to open up more markets to both sides you know India can let some more competition in here we can bring in more capital and both of it so I remember telling some Indians you know after some of those negotiations it's really great but what about trade but you know since you were talking about wristlet and he says look uh he doesn't believe that higher for longer is necessarily going to be anti-growth because it fundamentally underlines the resilience uh that the economy seems to have but you're you know you're you've been cautioning everybody about don't just focus on today but worry about tomorrow so what does tomorrow look like which I agree with Larry but he also is quite concerned about it so if you have higher for longer but you've got good growth and inflation is kind of contained that's good just have more more fighting for Capital and people paying up for Capital and the world needs it it needs it for re-militarization the green economy the IRA act the chips act huge deficit spending but we need growth if you actually have stagflation that's not so good so I just say right now it feels good that fiscal stimulation was extraordinary the monetary system was extraordinary that was a global phenomenon more in the United States and elsewhere but there's a little bit of a sugar high and that's a little bit going to go away and we're hoping we have a soft Landing but all these other things is there QT Ukraine oil gas this winter disruption of trade flows so you know I think good leadership on the part of you know America India China Europe can make can make sure the negative don't happen but I I'm putting myself in quite cautious category in the cautious category and you know you just talked about the spending and I I remember you said that we've been spending like drunken Sailors so as as the party starts to wind down uh and you know tightening happens and interest rates continue to remain higher uh what do you believe are likely to be the the adverse shocks of the world is going to have to deal with that of course is the big one and the death burden I mean you know large continents like Africa are dealing with dealing with that at this point in time what will it mean for things like climate transition and many other sdg goals that we have yeah I think we gotta not get confused around various goals unbelievable debt financing and high levels of that around the world we don't know the effect of that and these deficits other than more five minutes high as we've ever been and like I said with the highest debt level already so I put that little sugar high category spending government spending is inflationary governments can't just simply spend more and more money I think it's not inflationary but I don't know the effects of that I mean like I said we can have higher rates slow down but inflation coming down and good growth I think it's more likely to not but you know again we I think people should be prepared for higher oil and gas prices higher rates as a matter of just being prepared you know you and I can guess what it's going to be you don't know I don't know no one knows but I think the odds are higher than that and so uh you know but hopefully we'll get to that I think the geopolitical situation is the thing that most concerns me and we don't know the effect of that in the economy and so I I but again I think that the humanitarian part that's far more important I think it's also very important for the future of the free Democratic world he may be an inflection point for the free Democratic world that's how serious I take it so geopolitics before we've dealt with beverages before we've dealt with recessions before we haven't really seen something like this pretty much since World War II yeah so we don't that have a playbook for this Justice there is no Playbook yeah yeah and so we don't know what the intended and the unintended consequences of this will be but let's talk is we hope that it's behind us at this point in time uh you're not particularly happy with the way that the regulator has decided to move and bring in Norms as far as capital is concerned uh and you believe that there should be more transparency in being able to deal with this what are the implications of of those proposals going through I I don't know I mean I think that that is a great question like you know one of the things I think should take place is what do The Regulators want do they want the mortgage business inside Banks or outside they want you know credit outside the banks inside do they want diversification or no diversification so like some of these rules are anti-diversification operator is capital G siffy do you want American banks have the same requirements against National Banks because right now it's 30 percent more and you know there should be cost benefit analysis transparency what we're trying to accomplish and you know I hated to do that everyone's gonna be on the screen each other I wish that would work was done beforehand now it'll probably take place and we'll see you know they're going to do what they want to do JP Morgan can't affect that you know they'll they'll hear everyone's going to put in their comments and hopefully we end up in a good place my last question to you Ai and you believe that AI is going to be driving JP Morgan's future as well it's critical to each aspect of your business what are you doing about it yeah we have a thousand people involved in it AI is as real as they say we have 300 use cases around marketing fraud risk when we move 10 trillion dollars a day it's going through AI systems every application every job every person will be affected and remember bad guys can use it too so we have to like be ahead of the bad guys in terms of voice recognition how they use data to get and even for cyber and you know and so I'm it's going to be great for mankind there may be some disruption I think governments should be prepared to deal with the disruption but they can't stop AI another thing but AI it could be around the world and bad guys will use it too so probably a very big plus for mankind but I completely understand people's concerns about the bad side of it well Jamie dimon always a pleasure many thanks for joining us here on CNBC TV to appreciate your time thank you thank you so much good to have you here well that's it then on this edition of the global dialogue from all of us yeah goodbye and many thanks for watching foreign
댓글 0