저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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결론: 인도가 신흥국 투자의 최선호처이며 비중을 유지·소폭 확대한다는 낙관적 입장. [인도 비중·전략] 현재 인도 비중은 약 20%로 역대 최고 수준이며 과거 5년 평균 5~10%에서 상향. 조정(15~20% 하락) 시 매수하려고 현금 보유 중이나 당분간 비중 유지·소폭 확대. [신흥국 내 타 시장] 2순위 대만은 미중 관계 문제로 비중 확대 계획 없음. 한국·태국·터키는 소규모 비중. [금리·달러·유가 전망] 미국 금리는 정점 통과로 보며 연준의 추가 인상은 없거나 미미할 것으로 봄. 1개월 달러 예금 금리 5%는 매력적이나 장기(3~5년) 관점에서 인도 자산 축소는 비합리적. 유가는 대체에너지 확산과 강한 달러로 정점 부근이며 크게 오르지 않을 것으로 봄. [인도 자금 유입] 중국 자산 손실 및 러시아 배제로 신흥국 자금이 인도로 집중될 것이라 전망. [종목·섹터] Persistent Systems 보유 유지, IT 하드웨어·반도체 관심 확대. 은행은 투명성 문제로 선호도 낮고 소프트웨어·산업재·소비재 선호. Metropolis, APL Apollo Tubes 보유 유지. 정부 내수 투자 관련 기업은 자본수익률·부채 기준 미달로 회피. 전자제품 제조 기업(Dixon 등)은 관심은 있으나 밸류에이션·자본수익률 기준 미달. [채권·JP모간 편입] JP모건 인도 채권지수 편입으로 약 300억 달러 일회성 유입, 이후 연간 150~200억 달러 유입 예상. 금리·자본비용 하락 요인으로 인도 전반에 긍정적. [금·중국] 금은 이자가 없어도 장기 투자로 좋으며 각국 중앙은행 매입 확대 주목. 중국은 성장률 3~4%로 둔화되나 여전히 중요 시장. 인도는 장기적으로 중국에 근접할 것으로 전망. [미국 정부 셧다운] 주시는 하되 시장 수익에 중요하지 않다고 봄.
다듬은 글
OK. Well, I think it's time for us to move on to the conversation. Mark Mobius, founder of Mobius Capital Partners, joins us on the program. Congratulations, Mr. Mobius. Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us today. Indian markets have been performing well, but now, due to the surge in oil prices, the strengthening dollar, and asset valuations, cautious forecasts are being made for India.
What is your stance on emerging markets, and in particular on India's share in the portfolio? We still have the largest share of assets concentrated in India, and we plan to stick to this strategy as we see huge opportunities there. Of course, there will be corrections from time to time. We are monitoring this and holding cash to take advantage of such moments, but we would like to see a 15-20% correction before actively buying again.
However, we are maintaining our positions and increasing them slightly because we believe the opportunities in India are fantastic and the overall outlook for the country is so positive that it makes no sense to reduce our investments. Of course. So, India is the top priority. What is the difference between India and , say, the second- priority market?
What is the current share of investment in India? Currently, the share in India is about 20 or so percent, and Taiwan is in second place, but, as you know, there are difficulties there due to relations between China and the United States. So we don't plan to significantly increase our share there. Also on our list is Korea, a little bit of Thailand, and a little bit of Turkey.
These are very minor positions. So, India remains the main one. Mark, congratulations, good day. We heard your opinion, you remain optimistic. But let's look at the global context, because many are asking: if the global situation continues to deteriorate, the dollar strengthens to, say, 110 points, what then?
If the dollar index continues to rise. What if bond yields rise? We spoke with Jamie Dimon from JP Morgan, and he hinted that US yields could rise significantly. He says that perhaps the fight against inflation there is not over yet. Oil prices, as they are, are closer to 100 than they have been for a long time.
Uh, against this backdrop, I mean, what, uh, what should investors take away for themselves? Uh, are we really saying that we will be largely protected because of some structural factors that are present here, as opposed to other places? Is it worth looking at it that way? Uh , no, not really. Of course, you know that India will be affected by these changes that we are seeing, especially with interest rates .
I mean, we can now get 5% in dollar terms on one- month deposits, which is pretty remarkable when you consider where we started. So it's very attractive and makes you think, uh, about investing in stocks when you can see a decline in performance. So there's no doubt that there's going to be a lot of uh-huh concern when people look at these interest rates.
However, I believe that if you look at the growth of the money supply in America, you will see that it has decreased significantly. Growth rates, which means the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates. If they do , it will be a very minor increase, if any at all. So I think we are at the peak of the interest rate cycle now, and they will probably continue to decline.
So if we look at the long term, it doesn't make sense to reduce our Indian assets, uh, considering we're looking at 3-5 years. Of course, for those people who are short on cash, it makes sense to cut back a bit, but otherwise, India seems like the best place. M. And is there still a lot of money , in your opinion?
I mean, uh, of course, there are very few people as knowledgeable as you, Mark, in emerging markets, uh, and an emerging markets investor, among emerging markets investors. Is there still a lot of, uh, money waiting, uh, to be placed in a market like India? Yes. You see, you have to remember that for global investors who need to have exposure to emerging markets, they are really in a difficult position because they have had to get out of China, or their assets in China have been largely wiped out and they need to look elsewhere.
Uh, Russia is out of the question. They have already lost 7% in Russia. Uh , where should they go? This is India , the only other place. So that's why I think you're going to see more and more capital in India, simply because people need access to emerging markets , and India is the best place on the spectrum of those markets.
Mark, is this 20 percent India allocation the highest it's ever been in your portfolio? Is this your most optimistic view of India? Yes. This is the highest figure to date. Of course. OK. And what was India's share on average, say, over the last 5 years? It fluctuated between 5 and 10 percent. Of course.
And we increased it. Of course, the market itself helped us . You have to remember that the market has grown, our assets in India have performed very well , and as a result, the share has increased. Of course. OK. Mr. Moises, what would you say about the banking sector here? It seems like the last time you spoke to us at the beginning of the year, you weren't excited about the banking sector , but now we have a few big banks, like HDFC Bank, whose valuation looks attractive .
What is your opinion? How do you approach this sector, given your stake in India? I'm usually not too interested in banks. Simply because banks' transparency is not very high, as you know. It is very difficult to understand where problem loans are hiding . This is not a comment on HDFC. I think India has incredible banks, but we find better value in software, industrials, consumer, so we prefer those areas.
By the way, it is worth paying attention to the bond market. The Indian bond market is expanding, as you know. JP Morgan seems to have added India to their index, and this will be very positive for some banks. Of course , this applies to government bonds, but bank bonds are also likely to perform well in the future.
By the way, regarding India's inclusion in the JP Morgan bond index : a one-time adjustment of about $30 billion is expected as India's share eventually increases to 10%. And then, according to estimates, we will receive between $15 and $20 billion in investments in government securities annually. Well, that will be a big event, although of course it won't come into effect until the middle of next year.
But this should reduce the cost of capital, especially given that we are talking about the financial sector, namely companies dependent on wholesale funding. Do you see this as a kind of revaluation event for this sector? I mean the constant decline in the cost of capital. This will certainly help India as a whole, as inclusion in this index will show investors that they should pay attention to the Indian bond market.
And, of course, this will affect the government bond market, and through it, the industrial bond market in India, which will be very good for companies. So I think we should keep a close eye on this in the future as it will have a positive impact on India as a whole. You gave us your vision for interest rates in the US.
So let me add one more question about the global situation. You said you think rates in the US have already peaked. What about oil prices , Mark? Do you have a clear idea of where they are headed? I think we're probably at the highest point right now. As you know, more and more people are switching to alternative sources, and I believe we are at peak oil prices.
I don't think they will go much higher, especially given the strong US dollar. Mark, you started by saying you see huge opportunities in India. Want to talk about some of your recent bets on India? Well, as you know, we're still invested in Persistent Systems, and we're looking at a number of other software companies.
So, there are a lot of possibilities. Good. So, you want to increase your stake in Indian tech companies. You have Persistent, but you want to add some more IT actions. Yes. We are particularly interested in the hardware space as we believe that Indian hardware in the technology space will be very promising in the future.
So I think we should take a closer look at this. We are waiting for the listing , but I believe that India will become a major producer of semiconductors and other technological equipment. Of course. OK. Mark, you discussed a few stocks earlier. It seems that Metropolis is a promotion that you used to like.
APL Apollo Tubes worked very well for you. Did you add anything else or reduce the positions in any of them? No, these are the companies we have and we continue to hold them. You know, just picking up on what you said, right? You said you expect equipment manufacturing to become an important topic. Electronics are the second largest import for India after oil.
The government, through its manufacturing-related incentive schemes, is really encouraging local companies to produce a lot of what we currently import. I mean, it's everything from home appliances to, more recently, laptops and many other products. In recent years, we have had many new listings. There is Dixon Technologies, I don't know if you follow them, Amber Enterprises, SMA and a whole bunch of other companies.
Have you or your team considered these possibilities? After all, this is a topic that may have a long-term perspective. Of course, this must be compared to valuations that already exceed 50 times for all of these companies . Yes, we are looking at them, but the problem is that many of these companies have not yet reached the return on capital criteria that we use.
We are targeting a return on capital of at least 20%, and many have not yet reached that level. Therefore, we are monitoring them very closely and looking for opportunities. But one of the most important aspects of this picture is that the Indian government should allow greater imports of components so that the companies that manufacture this equipment can integrate these components and then re-export.
This is something we need to watch very carefully. But, of course, India will increasingly produce vital components . Mark, a theme that is developing extremely well in India is a focus on internal growth; government capital spending is increasing by more than 25%. As a result, shares of industrial, infrastructure companies, and capital goods manufacturers doubled in price.
Their grades were revised upwards . And this has been happening for the last 12-18 months, and maybe even longer. Did you take advantage of this topic or just observe and stay away? Tell us your thoughts on this domestic industry topic. Yes, we considered that. Unfortunately, many of these companies do not meet our criteria for return on equity and debt.
Debt is a big problem. Some of these companies have too much debt. So we have to be very careful when we look at them. Also, companies that are too dependent on government contracts can be quite vulnerable. So we prefer companies that have a diverse client base, a large client base that can include both government and the private sector.
Mr. Mobius, what about gold? You know, we've talked about this before, with the current situation in the world regarding stocks and bonds, what place does gold have in that ? I love gold. I believe that gold is good; you must have some gold. Of course, many people say, "Oh, gold doesn't pay interest, it doesn't have any income ," but ultimately, if you look at the long-term situation with gold, you'll see that it's been a great investment in the long run.
By the way, the recent article about Singapore's gold reserves is very interesting, as they have recently increased their gold reserves quite significantly. So this is something to watch closely, and there is no doubt that governments around the world continue to hold gold and increase their gold reserves.
China is probably another good example. Mark, you know, one of the themes that's been playing out in a lot of sectors is "China Plus One," as they call it, where India is taking a place that's supposedly liberating China, even though they may not be liberating it, but what's your sense of whether this is a permanent shift that's happened?
Or, because it seems constant when you are in the middle of things, but when you step back and look at the bigger picture, what is your feeling? How do you feel? This is certainly a constant move by companies around the world, but you have to remember that China is still a huge exporter of products around the world, not only to developed countries, Europe and the US, but also to emerging markets.
So this is something to pay attention to. Of course, ultimately, we see the growth rate of this trade and the growth rate of China's GDP slowing down. We expect China to grow by about 3-4% in the future. But for India, the growth rate is much higher. So you will see India gradually approaching the level of China.
I'm not saying it will happen overnight, but it will happen over the next 10 years. I believe that at the pace that India is moving, we should not forget that China is still a huge market and an extremely important player in world trade, so we cannot ignore it. Mark, how do you feel about this manufacturing of process equipment and semiconductors in India right now?
Is this what you are observing? Yes, please. Yes, I'm following this very closely . I look at which companies are listed on the stock exchange and which ones are already listed, analyze the numbers and look for those that meet our criteria for return on capital, debt, etc. So I think this is a long-term development that we will see.
And in the not-too-distant future, we'll probably see an Indian equivalent of Apple , or an Indian Microsoft , or something like that in the tech space, and they'll be big companies. Mark, one last question. Regarding the near term: this situation with the possible suspension of the US government, a drama that repeats itself every few months.
The deadline is this weekend. Do you think they will agree? It always gets resolved somehow. Do you pay attention to this ? I don't follow it too closely , but there are so many political events happening in the US. It's still something we should keep an eye on and use to our advantage, but ultimately, I don't think it's something you can make significant money on given the market fluctuations.
Okay, Mark, we'll stop there. Thank you very much for joining us. We are always happy to see you here on CNBC TV18. Thank you for your time and thank you for talking to us. Thank you very much. So, it was Mark Mobius. One of the most astute emerging market watchers is still very bullish on India, with a 20% weighting, a few percentage points higher than India's weighting in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
So he maintains the "overweight" position, continues to adhere to it, as we heard during our conversation with Mark.
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