저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 미국보다 신흥국(인도 등) 자산이 장기적으로 크게 앞설 것이며, 달러 약세 속 원자재·귀금속에 우호적이라는 견해. 신흥국 성과: 2016년 미국 대비 브라질(달러 기준 +66%), 러시아(+60%), 카자흐스탄(+60%), 태국(+20%), 필리핀(+22%) 등 신흥국이 크게 상회. 연초 이후 인도 지수 +8%, S&P500 +2.5%, 아시아 다수 시장 +8~9%. 미국 정책 전망: 트럼프의 보호무역 발언은 실행 여부에 따라 달라지며, 실제로는 중국·멕시코만 겨냥하면 역효과로 인도·베트남 등 미국이 필요로 하는 국가를 해칠 수 있다고 봄. 세계화 수혜는 미국 기업 부문이 가장 컸다고 평가. 원자재·달러·귀금속: 2016년 아연, 철광석, 설탕 등 원자재가 약 100% 반등, 원유는 $32→$60 근접. 원자재 바닥 통과 판단, 특히 농산품이 올해 호조 전망. 서방 정부 부채 문제로 지속적 통화 증발이 예상되어 귀금속 가격 상승에 우호적. 선호 섹터: 신흥국에서 은행, 보험, 리스사, 농업·식품·음료, 광업, 부동산(특히 물류 관련). 중국 주식에 소규모 진입 시작, 중국 주식이 상방 서프라이즈 가능성 언급. 멕시코·터키도 올해 상회 전망. 중국 경제: 신용 버블 리스크 존재하나 장기 성장률 4% 수준으로 둔화는 불가피하되 선진국 대비 양호하다고 평가. 외국인 투자자 정서는 중국·신흥국에 비관적, 미국에 낙관적이라고 지적. 인도 중앙은행(RBI): 금리 인하보다 루피 안정이 더 중요하다고 주장. 인위적 저금리는 자산 보유 상위 약 10%에게만 혜택. 케인즈식 재정·통화정책의 효과에 회의적이며, 규제 완화와 민간 성장 촉진이 필요하다고 봄.
다듬은 글
of course I follow what international investors do and that I tend to do the opposite so for the last 18 months I had to hear the nonsense of how Great America is doing and that America without perform everything else when in fact over the last two years there were many markets that have significantly Alex were performed the US last year Brazil was up 66% in dollar terms Russia was up close to sixty percent in dollar terms and Kazakhstan 60 percent in dollar terms Thailand 20 percent the Philippines also around 22% intercourse and so on so yeah I follow what the international investors do and then I avoid doing the saving nonsense and recently there was again this huge of euphoria about the US and how great Trump was who hates America game I haven't seen the results yet but the fact is since the beginning of the year the Indian index in dollar term is up 8% the S&P is up two and a half percent many markets in Asia are up eight nine percent Singapore is up 9% Tyler and six percent in Asia just about every market has outperform the US but the u.s.
one man just tell you how great the Americas and that's one should overweight the US and neglect the emerging market and I think and I maintain what I said on this program before that over the next 10 years by investing in India and in emerging economies you will outperform the US by a wide margin wide margin right master president transfers and making multiple announcements sir for various search tricky political uncertainty protectionism and of course he's not kept up the pharmaceutical space with regard to drug pricing and of course h-1b visa concern is less should investors be worried about all that trumpeting and keeping that in mind how the approach in u19 farmer song well that will depend on how mr.
Trump and his team implement it's a protectionist rhetoric they talk big and they talk a lot especially through twister and we'll see what the actions are because you have tools on the turn the u.s. goes and then it says Mexico has taken advantage of the u.s. as an example or China has taken advantage of the US but that is simply not quite true and the there is another dimension to these protectionist measures the u.s.
basically does not want to retreat entirely from the world scene they want to have a say in the South China Sea they want to meddle in Europe they want to meddle in Latin America and the waters or if you really implement protectionist policies you will ne8 if the countries that actually you want to use or to boost as a bulwark against China so it was very unwise if you wanted to hurt China to try to weaken India and its industries the other than or if you try to weaken Vietnam which has also large trade service with the u.s.
provided that actually in the end reason will prevail and that some people in the administration will actually tell mr. Trump that is anybody did benefit from globalization over the last 25 years or so it was actually the US and the US corporate sector right then looking at this set up mark how should you read dollar movement especially with regards to commodity that's also Asian currencies in particular well basically I think that in the course of 2016 most commodities autumn doubt and some have had huge rallies zinc leg iron or sugar the all up approximately hundred percent from the Laos oil was at $32 and we went to close to $60 so I think that commodities probably bottomed out and my view would be that especially agricultural commodities will perform quite well this year I also believe that in this environment of eternal money printing and then they stopped for a while you know maybe in Europe or baby in Japan or reduce the excess verses but basically the government's in the Western world are bankrupt and the only way to postpone the truth and the democratic governments they have to keep the illusion going that engineers will get the pensions and people who are on Social Security they will get the Social Security so I think the stamp money printing will go on and that this will in time boost precious metal prices right Marco for a viewer shaker which are the sectors you prefer currently and when you look at India or even globally actually I'll give you what I invest in emerging markets at the present time and this would also apply to India these are banks insurance company leasing companies agriculture food beverages mining and real estate and within the real estate my favorite are companies related to logistics right the market China recently announced some capital market reforms as well as vaccines the sentiment as far as emerging market allocations are concerned and is it really of cause of concern for markets like India considering that some of those flows that are meant to meant for India may now go to China yes I think that in general there has been a very negative view towards the Chinese economy and to its Chinese stocks I'm not sure about the economy and precisely people don't know whether we will have a crash in the car because we have the fact is we have a credit bubble but the other than the credit bubble is of course also upset by a huge pool of savings so exactly how it will play out I don't know my sense it is almost written in stone that the economy will slow down to a long-term growth rate of say 4% but you know compared to Europe and to Japan and to the US 4% is not so bad and compared to the size of the Chinese economy because Chinese economy is today essentially in the manufacturing sector certainly the largest economy so 4% would actually be a good crowd but the sentiment as I mentioned to you by international investors has been very bearish about emerging markets including of course Indian China and very positive about the US and I explained to you before that I would overweight emerging market and I have started to take some positions in China not a lot yet but I think that Chinese stocks could actually surprise on the upside as I believe that they Mexican investments and Turkish investments this year could outperform other markets marker talking barter some more domestic fuels in Cyprus the big event here in India tomorrow where the Reserve Bank of India will need for a big anticipated policy move one what are you expecting from the RBI given the fact that the government's borrowing stands with a 12 year low from what we heard the budget do you think a rate cut is the need of the hour to boost domestic growth and economy back here well I think that isn't straight are important but I would say the most important for India where it's for big companies small enterprises individual instability of the currency and if the rupee it can be stable and under relatively high real race the rupee is going to be relatively stable as you see in the law squeaks the rupee has strengthened against the US dollar so that is a very good sign and if I were the policymakers in India I would aim at currency stability rather then say trying to boost economic activity with artificial low interest rate because if we look at say the experience of Japan of Europe as the compare low interest rates have had a very beneficial impact on asset price but as you know assets in a country like India or the US and I'm not singling India out would say maybe 90% of assets stops real estate bonds and companies are all opened by maybe 10% of the people so the artificially low interest rate helps a small portion of the population not the majority of the people and therefore I as you know I very question a very much questioned the validity of the Keynesian theory as of today may be a time of gain there was a marriage to boost government spending but it went too far the government became too big and diverse so as of today I don't think that monetary policies and fiscal policies are very effective any longer I think more effective would be measures that would boost the growth rate of the private sector which would include a more efficient legal commercial infrastructure and far less regulation regulation and market manipulation like mark moving interest rates up and down and targeting the exchange rate and the worst these manipulations they destroy the free market and our growth restraining growth retarding
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