저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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결론: 미국 경기 확장은 피로 상태이며 6~12개월 내 침체 가능성이 있고, 캐나다는 대미 수출 의존도 때문에 타격을 받을 수 있다. 캐나다 부동산·투자 환경: 외국인 자금이 미국보다 캐나다를 선호하며 밴쿠버 부동산은 2년 하락 후 최근 6개월 반등했다. 부동산 약세론은 수년간 빗나갔지만 언젠가 맞을 수 있다고 봤다. 자원주: 금광주는 작년 상반기 상승 후 하반기 약세였고, 1월 반등 뒤 다시 약세다. 테슬라·애플 등 성장주가 조정받으면 자원섹터, 특히 귀금속이 상승하고 캐나다로 자금이 유입될 것으로 봤다. 금 관련 종목은 방향성 전망으로 보면 상승 쪽 기대. 미국 경제: 2017년 6월이면 확장 9년째 강세장이며 회복은 약했고 각국 초완화 통화정책이 주도했다. 6~12개월 내 침체 가능성을 제시했다. 트럼프 법인세 감세로 연 3% 성장은 어렵다고 봤다. 대외무역: 캐나다는 상품 수출의 약 75%가 미국행이라 미국 침체 시 타격이 크다. 반면 중국은 미국 의존도를 낮춰 신흥국·유럽·FTA 국가로 수출을 분산했다. 미국의 중국산 철강 수입은 5%에 불과하고 중국의 대미 철강 수출은 2%라고 지적했다. 제국 쇠퇴론: 미국은 1950년대에 상대적 정점을 찍었고, 일본·한국·중국이 제조업 분야를 잠식하며 상대적 힘이 약해졌다고 평가했다. 과거 '미국이 재채기하면 아시아가 감기 걸린다'는 말은 이제 맞지 않고, 현재는 중국이 재채기하면 아시아가 중환자실에 간다고 주장했다.
다듬은 글
big issues we've been following today is whether the Bank of Canada is doing enough to stand up for Canada is the boc making us attractive to Global Investors joining us now is someone with a Global Perspective Mark Faber is the editor publisher of the Gloom boom and doom report and joins us live in studio great to have you here thank you so we know that the some American hedge funds are seeing this as their moment to pile on against the Canadian Banks against uh pretty much everything in our economy and the real estate sector what are you hearing as as a global investor in terms of how people feeling about Canada well I think there are two sides uh one side is obviously the real estate market and a lot of people have been barish about real estate and they have been bearish for many years and about the banks as well and so far they haven't proven to be right one day they'll be right and markets will go down but as you've seen in Vancouver the market went down over the last two years and now the last 6 months it picked up again so there's still a lot of money in the world world slushing around and looking at buying real estate and I think in general International investors view Canada more favorably than the US so money is flowing into Canada the SE second thing about Canada is the resource sector as you know uh we had a good move in uh gold shares last year then the second half of the year was weak there was a pickup in January but recently gold shares have again been weak and mineral uh companies anyway and I think that the moment uh the Teslas of this world and the apples go down the fun stocks which have driven the SNP the moment these stocks come under pressure and significant pressure I believe at that time the resource sector will pick up and especially the precious metal sector and then a lot of money will flow into Canada yeah I was say what you're laying at right now is the fact that even though a lot of people domestically are worried about our real estate market the run up we've had a lot of American hedge funds think it's all going to come crumbling down the world still sees it's a safe place and if the Commodities come back then it sounds like Canada is in a prime position to benefit I don't know what will come apart first the us or Canada my sense is that the USC karma is in a worse shape than they pretend it to be okay I want to ask you about that because obviously the the Trump Administration through their corporate tax cut plan they think they can that economy by 3% a year I've not met anyone who thinks they can hit three you sound like you're a lot more negative on America than that yes I think that the economy after having uh expanded now we're going to be in the E year of an expansion this June and we're more than eight years into a bull market the economy is very tired and it's never been a very strong recovery and the recovery was driven by a exceptionally expansionary monetary policies around the world not just in the US but also in Europe and in Japan and so this uh economic expansion is looking very tired and I think the economy could easily be in recession within the next 6 to 12 months now that doesn't bode well for Canada because they're our largest trading partner 75% roughly of our goods go straight to them so I can't see a situation where Canada uh can stay on course or even benefit from a global sentiment if the Amer they might love our real estate and they might love our Commodities of Commodities go up if the Americans aren't buying our our Goods how how well can Canada yeah sure this is but but I think that Canada should do the same as China namely redirect the export away from the US to other countries today the US is no longer the largest trading partner of China the Emerging Markets are the largest trading partner of China Europe and uh other countries with which China has free trade agreements so the dependence on the US is not that high during the election campaign of trump he was repeatedly talking about steel from China and so hor uh the US Imports just 5% of its steel from China the big importer is actually from Mexico and Canada for steel yes and uh for Chinese exports of Steel the US is 2% so it's meaningless for China and recently the largest bus manufacture in China was being interviewed the chairman and he said the US for us is unimportant we export to 164 different countries what do we care about the US the US is no longer a big deal for China okay let's I want to talk about that in terms of the fact that when we see economic expans expansions contraction recessions that that's cyclical and we expect that to happen but are we talking about something deeper here with the United States that we're talking about an Empire and decline I've been hearing that since I was in high school but are we actually looking at an American Empire and decline on the global stage well I think that everything is relative if you look at the US the last say 200 years he had a period of Rapid economic EXP expansion until the 1920s 1930s we had a depression but in the 19th century we had several significant recessions and the Civil War don't forget that and then in the 50s relative to the rest of the world the US reached probably its peak I'm talking about relative to the rest of the world was the most powerful military nation and economically they were well advanced above everybody else China and India were nowhere there were less than 3% of GDP each having been at the beginning of the 19th century around 50% of GDP and now over the last 30 40 years it began first with Japan infringing on Industries in the US notably the consumer electronic industry and the Auto industry and South Korea Ian and then China and I think that relative to the rest of the world the US is not as powerful as it used to be and when I went to Hong Kong the first time and since then lived in Asia in 73 until the mid 80s the saying was if America sneezes Asia catches a cold today this is no longera the case but if China sneezes Asia has a cold is in intensive care
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