Fed's December decision will be controversial and messy, says Allianz' Mohamed El-Erian

요약 보기

연준 12월 금리 결정은 불확실하고 논란과 혼란이 예상되며 연준 내부 분열을 반영할 것. 시장 내재 12월 인하 확률이 3주간 90%→30%→60%대로 급변. 10월 CPI 발표 취소, 파월 임기 말(레임덕)로 데이터·리더십 모두 불확실. AI 주도 경제에서 GDP는 4%대인데 고용은 약해 디커플링 발생, 소비 부진이 우려. 기대인플레이션은 4.5%로 높음. 개인적으로는 전략적 관점에서 인하해야 한다고 주장하나, 연준이 데이터 의존적이라 전략이 부족했다고 비판.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. My next guest says markets shouldn't over react to those dovish comments though. Joining me now is Allianz chief economic advisor Mohamed El-Erian. And Mohamed, it's great to have you on here. I mean, I guess he tried to tilt the consensus of a conflicted committee in a dovish direction. We have incomplete economic data and clearly different ways of looking at things.

02. So, how does it net out to you? It nets out as uncertain. It nets out as whatever the outcome is is going to be controversial, it's going to be messy, and it will reflect a divided Fed. Um the market is all over the place on this, Mike. As you know, in the last 3 weeks alone, the implied probability of a December cut went from the 90% to the 30 and now to the 60s.

03. Those are massive moves for a meeting that is on December 10th. So, it reflects what you said and this is why it's going to remain uncertain. The data isn't going to resolve this, especially as we heard that we won't get the October CPI inflation report. The biases of the FOMC members are very different.

04. There is no strategic vision as to where this economy is going because this has been a Fed that's been very data-dependent. And finally, Chair Powell is a lame duck. So, I think it's a 50/50 and whatever comes out will be accompanied by a message that will make it feel really uncertain. And I guess it really is only another week of Fed speak until the blackout period ahead of that meeting, right?

05. And if you don't think that any of the data we'll get in the next couple of weeks are really going to to swing the votes in one direction distinctly or another, it might be up to how the market behaves between now and then. I wonder if that even is going to be the deciding factor. And then the question is, just how high are the stakes for the economy itself in your view as to whether we get a cut or not?

06. So, I think it's remarkable, as Steve said, that Fed officials have put out so explicitly their views. This would not have happened before. Secondly, yes, where the market goes may have an influence. Thirdly, the Fed has a basic problem. In an AI-led economy, GDP growth is decoupling from employment.

07. I mean, when else have we spoken about a weak labor market when the Atlanta now estimate of GDP is at 4%? These are historically inconsistent elements and it speaks to the fact that the consumer sector is relatively weak. We saw that today. People are worried about unemployment, but we have another engine which accounts, depending on how you measure the wealth effect, 60 to as high as maybe 90% of the drivers of GDP.

08. So, this is a really rough, tough position for the Fed to be in and it's one that, unfortunately, is going to be with us in future Fed meetings as well. It's true, although, you know, at one point, and maybe in the abstract, those conditions might lead you to believe that a cut would be more likely than not simply because the Fed is meant to be targeting employment levels, not GDP, right?

09. Oh, absolutely, but the strong the strong economy is also keeping inflation up. And we saw in the in the UMich data today that inflation expectations are at 4 and 1/2%. Look, if I were on the Fed, I would cut, but I would cut not on the basis of the current state of the economy, but on a strategic view of the economy.

10. I think that AI and other innovations, robotics, life sciences, are going to contribute to a significant increase in productivity. The speed limit for this economy is going to go up. There will be employment issues to deal with. So, if you look at whether you have the ability to cut is yes. Whether you have the willingness, it should be yes because the labor market is weak.

11. So, if I was there, I would cut, but I started by saying it's about a strategic vision. This Fed has not taken a strategic vision. It has been overly data-dependent and that's why they're they're in the mess they're in right now.