저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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11/21 시장은 Nvidia 실적 호조에도 장중 급락해 Dow -387, Nasdaq -2.16%로 마감. Cramer는 실적 좋은 종목도 패턴상 약세 우려, 메모리·스토리지 'super cycle'은 고점 신호일 수 있다고 경고. 비트코인 90,000 하회와 레버리지 구조가 기술주로 전이된다고 진단. 강한 고용지표로 금리인하 기대가 약해진 점도 고베타·투기 성장주에 부담. 당분간 매수 자제, 내일 바닥 확인 후 고품질 기술주 저가 매수 고려. Nvidia는 트레이딩이 아닌 보유 관점 유지. Axon 질의에는 경쟁(Motorola) 우려로 확신 약화 언급.
다듬은 글
[ America. Other people want to make friends. I'm just trying to save you some money. My job is not just to entertain you, but to educate, to do some teaching. So, call me at 1800 743 CBC. Tweet me, Jim Kmer. Look, we we knew it had gotten harder since November began, right? But this hard? Wow. When we have reversals like this, the kind of reversal that makes you feel like you just can't take it anymore.
I suggest you simply sit on your hands and hold on. It's not a sin to do nothing. Sometimes, as I make clear in how to make money in any market, it is the best course of action. This is one of those times. If you can't take the pain and it was in abundance because the Dow opened up 428 points, S&B opened 1.4%, NASDAQ opened up almost 2.2% only to roll over with the Dow finishing down 387 points.
SB down 1.56% and the NASDAQ off 2.16%. Well, talk about a swing. Well, then you can still raise some cash if you don't have any, by selling some losers, not winners, in order to buy the winners on the way down. That's an acceptable course of action. Today's market's destructive. It's a reminder that while your companies may be doing extremely well, their stocks, they can separate.
It's coming out of the story. Case in point, the biggest stock in the world, Nvidia. Last night, a video reported one of the best scores I have ever seen. Ahead of the report, there was tremendous angst that somehow they would blow it. They'd print a subpar set of numbers and the stock would blow up.
Instead, what happened? Nvidia reported an astonishing sales number, earnings number, gross margin, customers. Fantastic. And what happened? The stock blew up anyway, but not before it soared higher both last night and this morning. Nvidia stock opened at 195. That was up about eight from yesterday, but then closed at 180.
A hideous swing that obliterated those who bought the opening and a lot of people did. The volume was high. Why do I keep stressing this huge intraday swing stuff? Okay, let's get technical for a second. When you get that pattern, it's a huge up opening and then the whole market craters including your stock.
Professionals associate that with a very nasty moment. If your company can deliver the best quarter possible and your stock finishes the session down anyway, well, you can expect more pain. Why not? Because if it can't rally on the greatest news possible, what else can make it move back up? Sure, it might not play out that way this time, but pattern recognition matters.
And right now, the pattern is terrible. I don't sugarcoat this stuff. And I say that no, not changing my stance. I think you need to own Nvidia, not trade it. But I understand the pain. There's been so much pain since it was a two. Let me tell you what you're supposed to do when you see this kind of pattern.
You have to do a checkdown just like a quarterback in the NFL looking as receivers. First you ask, did you miss anything with Nvidia that makes this quarter look a lot worse than it did at first glance? I read the conference call once, spoke to the company, read the conference call again, went to dinner with friends, and then read the call a third time with some anales.
I'm confident I missed nothing. The demand for the chips is extraordinary. Gross margin dependence. Their customers, unlike what's constantly being said by the nattering nebobs of negativity, can't get enough of Nvidia's chips and they're making a lot of money with them. The customers, I'm going to repeat that, are making excellent money with these chips, including some use cases where Meta, as Jensen Wong, the CEO, was explaining demonstr weakness of Nvidia.
You have to survey the landscape to see what would explain the weakness. For that, what I like to do is look at all the intraday charts of various stocks overlaid upon the stock of Nvidia. Here's what I found. A profound pronounced set of declines in the most elemental tech stocks. The basic semiconductors which have been ringing like crazy for weeks.
Micron, Sandis, Western Digital, all the these are storage plays. All computer companies that have been going parabolic for months now. They not Nvidia have become the momentum players. Earlier this week, a Morgan Stanley analyst used the dreaded term super cycle, which almost invariably leads to a top when you hear it.
As was the case with the last two super cycles that were called the frackusan super cycle and the coal super cycle. Both turned out to be long-term tops, heights that were never ever seen again. And then it crashed. Sure enough, these storage stocks have been craving for the last few days, almost on quue with the ill- fated ill- advised super coal.
These storage players like fracking sand and coal are commodities. Right now they're in shortage mode because they can't make enough storage to meet the demand. I'm sure we'll discover that the shortage was just alleviated somehow. We don't know. Perhaps by some semiconductor capital equipment surge and the prices have started to moving back to equilibrium.
Equilibrium means lower prices. What else? Again, sticking with the concern that the biggest capitalization stock in the universe might be behind today's reversal. I noticed that one of the most closely correlated situations to Nvidia's trading of all things is crypto, especially Bitcoin. There are a host of incredibly speculative ways to bet on Bitcoin, borrow money, ways that could be catastrophic and break down for some Bitcoin vehicles that will lead into Nvidia because there's a lot of shareholder overlap.
Sure enough, their strategy, formerly Micro Strategy, an elaboration of crypto that public documents indicate owns about 3% of all Bitcoin, a huge holding, and finances that investment with more than $8 billion in debt. That's an insane amount of risk. JP Morgan this morning talked about how Strategy may get booted from some indices because it's basically just a steam Bitcoin, not a real operating company.
The P didn't suggest it would happen soon, maybe by the middle of January. But man, there's a lot of money in index funds and the indices include strategy. The pressure on strategy from these automatic sellers could be disastrous. You kick something out of the index like that, then the index money automatically departs.
One more reason why you cannot afford to own that stock. And I've been saying that and saying that. It's not just strategy. There's so many Bitcoin companies out there. And they all trade with the commodity which broke down below the critical 90,000 level like a machete through butter. I am watching this Bitcoin immersion technologies, a company involved in Bitcoin hosting and mining.
It was down 10.83% today. Don't buy. Don't buy. Now, everyone seems to be holding on for dear life. And you know what happens when you do that? Bitcoin can lead tech down. It's that correlated because of the le leverage state of the players involved. They're your nemesis. When Bitcoin collapses, the people who bought it with borrowed money need to sell their holdings in order to raise money.
And that often includes stocks like Nvidia. That and the 2x and 3x Nvidia junk paying the h playing havoc with Nvidia stock. not the it's not the company itself. Fifth, you have to ask if there's anything totally away from Nvidia and tech that could be hurting things. The answer is pretty simple. The economy may be showing too much life.
It looks like too many jobs are being created. The employment numbers are still pretty hopeless in terms of the veracity, but we got a string of strong numbers this morning and some people are saying that means no rate cuts this year. Lots of stocks need rate cuts. The main ones are the most speculative ones.
quantum computing stocks, alternative energy stocks, critical mining stocks, longshot nuclear stocks, extremely lever data center stocks without any earnings, Bitcoin derivatives, they're all down big. I've made it very clear to you that until we get a wash out in these stocks, until they return to Earth, it will be very hard for anything to stabilize, particularly that group.
And they are mostly certainly returning to Earth. It won't be in a straight line, and there'll be plenty of opportunity still to get out when the defenders defenders make the rounds on TV, which they always do. But I think that's all she wrote for the hyperspective groups. As I've said to you over and over and over again, the year of magical investing is over.
So where do I come out? I think you have to wait for a day before you make any decisions to buy. Even after the selling, we are still not oversold. But you should identify what you like tonight as we are doing for the travel trust and be ready for tomorrow because we will definitely see bargains developing.
I see that the recession stocks like consumer package good place are getting some love. However, I like to buy them when they're hated and not loved. And the Magnificent Seven don't look all that magnificent, at least when it comes to their stocks. That smells like opportunity to me. Bottom line, I want to see what holds tomorrow.
Stocks that have come down too far, too fast, where the expectations are too low and the opportunity is too great. Those are the ones I'm looking to buy on weaknesses, especially the high quality techs that are now being thrown away with the Bitcoin bathwater. Scott in South Carolina. Scott Jimmy Chill.
Booyah. Man, what's shaking with you, partner? Hey, man. Um, I need your wisdom cap on, big guy. Big big guy. Hey, uh, I bought a stock back in late July when it went under 700. Thought it was a great deal. It ran up into earnings. It's always beat on earnings until this last time in early October. I believe you had the president on a week or two ago.
Um he explained that uh he didn't explain the EPS miss, but he explained that they made their 30% I guess sales that they were looking for. But my stock I'm very I have a I'm very convicted on this stock. I've been buying it as it's going down. I want to know should I keep on buying Axon? Okay. So Rick Smith was on, he comported himself as usual excellently, but remember Motorola is in this business now and Motorola is a powerful competitor and they could be a trouble down the line.
They weren't according to Rick now, but I think when you have a big dog that comes in and wants that business, they can afford to give some of the business away. That's what's changed the complexion of the stock and that's what makes me less convinced, but not convicted because I didn't do anything.
All right, we need to see what stocks hold their ground tomorrow because those are the ones that I'm looking to buy on we just see what bounces that's going to tell us what happen tonight. While we're all focused on Nvidia earnings, it has been a big week for retail. I'm running through the important reports and sharing what I think of the cohort.
Then Walmart reported this morning has shot the lights out. But should investors wait for a pullback before pulling the trigger? I'll give you my take and GAP report after the bell. I'm talking to the CEO fresh off the company's earnings call to discuss the numbers. Stay with Kramer. [ ]
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