There's a lot of upside in the U.S. market, says Ed Yardeni

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미국 증시는 2025년 실적 증가(S&P500 EPS 약 $285, 전년 대비 약 18% 증가 전망)에 힘입어 추가 상승 여지가 크다고 봄. 상승 근거는 밸류에이션이 아닌 실적. 해외 시장은 독일·브라질·중국 등 경기와 정치 여건이 불안해 상대적으로 매력이 낮음. 미국 소비와 기술 자본지출이 견조하고, 관세는 장기적으로 무역 협상 이슈로 보나 경기침체로 이어질 가능성은 낮게 봄. 최근 장기금리 상승은 재정 적자·인플레이션 우려를 반영한 채권자경단(Bond vigilantes)의 신호로 해석.

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01. Ed yardeni yardi research president has liked the US market has been right with his optimistic call is it time to turn the tables and go abroad Ed now not really uh I'm probably going to overstay my welcome in in the United States I've been recommending staying home rather than going global since 2010 and it's worth I'm shocked at how well it's worked uh at some point I guess it's going to stop working but the US has a lot going for it uh for example earnings are probably going to be up uh quite dramatically uh this coming year we're looking for $285 a share for the S&P 500 I think we're above all the strategists on the street and that's an 18% increase and I see the market going up on earnings not on valuation just on earnings alone I think there's a lot of upside in the US market uh foreign markets not so much as you said it's kind of a messed up world I'd love to be a contrarian and I I agree with your thinking along contrarian lines but I just can't can't get there based on what I see in terms of the economic and political fundamentals what is what is causing earnings expectations in the US in your mind to go up well my expectations have gone up for sure and uh I think it's that after three years of uh the most widely anticipated recession uh of all times that never happened you know for three years uh there have been fears of a recession if monetary policy tightening couldn't cause a recession if geopolitical crisis couldn't cause the price of oil to spike up and cause a recession what's really left well you know I think you can come back and I would come back with I am concerned about uh tariffs but I don't think that's going to lead to a recession I think it's going to lead to some serious negotiations about Freer trade uh but at the end of the day the outlook for earnings is totally dependent on the outlook for the economy which looks great to me and we've been talking about the Roaring 2020 since 2019 and it's been roaring stock market record high earnings have actually done very well up to now and we think they're going to be driven by productivity so I just posted Ed to my my Twitter or X as they call it what's your best invest not you but what what do the viewers think is the better investment bet for next year the US Germany China or somewhere else so I'd like you to you know answer that question but I think you got seriz macro point we're just observers up here you're the expert but our macro point was that with with Germany so week and Brazil's a disaster and China's stimulating but that's probably not going to work is this meaning the US and I'm going to put an eagle on my shoulder eat apple pie and a hot dog is this the most investable Market in the world because the rest of the world is still so screwed up yeah I think that's really the bottom line it's uh it it it summarizes exactly what's going on overseas things are a mess and uh the the outlook for the US remains strong the dollar has been strong um and of course we've got a tremendous amount of consumer spending a lot of Baby Boomers are retiring and spending their their nest eggs so consumers have been remarkably resilient they actually like high interest rates and then Capital spending is also hasn't been interest rate sensitive quite quite the contrary it's remained very strong because a lot of its technology 50% of nominal Capital spending in the United States is technology and and technology is something that companies really have no choice but to spend on if you either make technology or you use technology if you don't use technology I think you'll uh be at a tremendous competitive disadvantage you know Ed you're the guy who coined the term Bond vigilantes and people are using that term again when they're looking at these higher treasury yield I I don't buy that it's like deficit and debt related I feel like that it's changing outlook for inflation and growth what do you think I think it's some combination of all those things uh look I think you know I'm thinking of writing a piece for for next week with a headline the Doge Boys versus the Bond vigilantes or or the Bond vigilantes versus the Doge boys uh you you might uh recall that back in the early days of Clinton he was warned by Robert Rubin and James Carville that he uh he had to uh plate the the Bond vigilantes he he he couldn't annoy them he had to have fiscal discipline and I think uh the the Bond vigilantes have pushed bond yields up a 100 basis points since the FED lowered interest rates by 100 basis points uh on September 18th so the FED funds rates down 100 basis points and the 10 years up 100 basis points I think that's a pretty strong message from the Bond vigilantes but when you say Bond vigilantes are aren't you referring to the investors that are pushing fiscal discipline yes I is that's what you think is happening here I I think I mean since the FED raised since the FED cut rates hasn't it been just that that the economy has done really well better than expected that inflation Outlook has has gone up in light of the election and in light of the easy monetary policy but it's all related I mean uh inflation and fiscal policy and monetary policy are all clearly related and as I think what the bond viil Landers are saying look we just went through a couple of years here where monetary policy was uh was was tight and yet fiscal policy was uh so loose that it it it triggered inflation and it took uh a couple of years of tight monetary policy to bring inflation down uh and now that inflation is down is does it really make sense to have easy monetary policy and easy fiscal policy clearly the Trump Administration is going to push for a continuation of of tax cuts and um you know how the Doge boys are going to come up with $2 trillion in uh and spending cuts and by the way they haven't made it clear are they talking about a one-year cut or are they talking about over the next 10 years uh usually the CBO the conal budget office uh when they look at things they look over a 10year period I could see them doing it over over 10 years but two years uh but but one year I don't think that's very likely uh so I think the Bond vigilantes are concerned about inflation they're concerned that the FED is easing uh stimulating an economy that doesn't need to be stimulated and uh they're not convinced that um the Trump Administration is going to do much about the fiscal Outlook