The market's certainly healthier today than it has been the last few weeks: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

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연준의 금리인하 후 매파적 언어로 인한 전날 급락은 예상 가능했으며 건전한 조정이라는 진단. 중립금리는 3.5~4%로 연준 전망보다 높고 장기금리는 정상화 과정으로 추가 상승 여지가 있다고 봄. 성장 강세는 주식에 우호적이나 채권에는 부정적. 2025년 주식은 2023~24년 대비 훨씬 어려워 0~10% 수준 상승을 예상하며, 밸류주 로테이션과 Mag7 상승세 둔화를 예상. 모멘텀 추종 매매가 줄어든 시장이 더 건강하다는 입장.

다듬은 글

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01. joining us right now uh to thank thanks Dom to talk about the state of the markets following yesterday's big sale off Jeremy seagull is here Professor aren School of Business Chief Economist at Wisdom Tree good morning to you uh I think we're all trying to make sense of this clearly um the market was caught off guard I'm actually surprised that the market was caught off guard as much as they are because if you watch our broadcast uh to be somewhat immodest about it I think Joe and Becky and uh just about everybody we've had on the last week or two suggested that we may still get a cut but we're going to get a hawkish language after that and and the market seems to think that this was some kind of great surprise yeah I I agree with you and it was exactly as I expect I actually think it's a a healthy development you know back in September when they lowered 50 basis points I I said two things I said first of all the the neutral rate is much higher than what the FED has indicated I think it's between three and a half and 4% uh I also said long-term rates were going up I've said that on your program several times and I I think they're going to go up more and that's not necessarily an unhealthy development uh do you know that for the first time in almost three years the 10year is above the FED funds rate um and that's a normal situation I mean we brought the FED funds rate I mean p brought it down uh yesterday 4.33% and as you know we're 4 and a half% now on the 10e it's normal for long-term interest rates to be above short-term interest R we were three years in an inverted term structure that's not an an healthy situation so we are actually normalizing the interest rate structure um you could call it re-calibrating if you wish uh but long rates I think have a way to go further up um well that's the if that's if that's your sort of base case how do you think about equities from here well it's more challenging in 2020 5 than 2024 um but don't forget one of the reasons why interest rates are going up and why the neutral rate is higher is stronger economic growth I mean Paul mentioned that many times in the news conference that GDP growth has surprised on the upside I andan that's good for equities it's bad for bonds uh but it is good for equities now now certainly you know inflation has been more stubborn than expected I still think there's as he mentioned some rental lags that I think are going to help us in 2025 get it closer to that 2% but uh you know higher interest rates don't necessarily mean a bad situation when they're caused by rises in productivity or rises in in Real GDP and that's certainly one of the causes of the rise in the long-term rates but then you look at yesterday or today and say this is a dip here's an opportunity or do you say there's going to be a bigger dip well you know I I thought there was a lot of trend followers a lot of momentum players I mean were just they were on the train running up Tesla uh many of the other mag 7 that's not a healthy situation all it takes is a little negative knock and whoop they they jump off the train and uh I I I prefer to see a market more dominated by fundamentals than momentum players that are just taking the ride so I actually think Market certainly healthier today uh than it has been for the last few weeks where we saw a lot of momentum players how do you um estimate factor in uh bet on what happens in 2025 uh to the economy to to the equity Market in the context of the Tariff conversation we've been having all morning in the context of whatever you think tax policy is going to look like yeah I mean I think that the Tariff is the biggest question I uh uh and and the IM the immigration question are both big questions that are facing uh the market um but there's a lot of you know positive features however I don't think we're going to match the gains of 23 24 I'm really thinking of 0 to 10% probably overall I mean I would I wouldn't be surprised to see finally value stocks break up more on the upside um and maybe the mag s taking a arest from an incredible run I don't think it's any sort of bubble on the mag 7 but certainly to keep up 40 50% gains um is is something that uh would be extremely against uh the odds uh for next year so a bit of rotation a quieter stock market but still positive for investors