저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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결론: 미국은 공식 침체는 아니지만 경미한 경기침체 국면에 진입했으며, 연준의 긴축이 주식시장에 부담이다. 경기 상황: 상반기 GDP가 마이너스이고 하반기도 둔화 중이다. 소매판매가 예상보다 크게 부진했고, 이후 지표들도 하방으로 연이어 놀라움을 주었다. NBER 기준 공식 침체 선언은 아직 아니다. 연준 정책: 연준이 너무 늦게 움직인 뒤 과도하게 긴축하고 있어 무언가를 깨뜨릴 위험이 있다. 통화량(M2) 증가가 60년 만에 두 번째로 큰 월간 감소를 기록했고, 경제를 급브레이크로 멈춰 세우는 모습이다. 7월 금리 인상폭은 75bp에서 25bp로 줄어들 수도 있다고 봤다. 금리와 밸류에이션: TIPS 실질금리가 연초 -1% 미만에서 최근 +1%로 약 2%p 상승했다. 할인율 급등이 주가 하락(20~25%)의 핵심 원인이라고 설명했다. 원자재: 석유는 소폭 올랐으나 다른 상품들은 대부분 하락 전환했고, 경제 모멘텀은 급격히 마이너스로 돌아섰다. 실적: 상반기 GDP는 역성장이지만 기업 이익은 전년 하반기 대비 약 5% 증가해 긍정적이다. 곧 분기말과 실적시즌이 다가오며, 아직 큰 경고는 들리지 않는다. 리스크: 연준이 과도하게 대응할 가능성, 늦은 대응이 과잉 반응으로 이어질 위험이 있다. 하반기 GDP도 다시 부진할 가능성이 있다.
다듬은 글
what is an investor to do let's ask famed wharton school professor jeremy siegel he joins us today from philadelphia professor it's good to see you welcome to overtime yeah i agree with you scott this week was brutal today was brutal um let me tell you we're we're in a recession uh it's a mild recession it's not an official recession by the nber certainly not yet but this first half is negative gdp growth and it's ending on a slide and uh you know just when the fed is you know the most aggressive because it waited far too long it's interesting i mean you know the data that i found so interesting on wednesday i mean more even than the 75 basis points fomc was that retail sales data that we got in the morning wow that was that was shockingly low and momentum downward and every single indicator we've gotten since then has really surprised pretty dramatically on the downside so sure just hope it's not too fast you know you you uh point to a significant issue that we need to discuss and that is the idea of a federal reserve that waited too long and now is acting too much and that seems to be where we are in this world what has unsettled this market so dramatically this very issue that because they waited so long professor and they're doing uh what is deemed to be too much now they're gonna break something along the way yeah and remember i commented you know three weeks ago that we already had stopped the growth of the money supply which was the second largest monthly decline in 60 years i was sort of startled i say buy something's going on here we're going to get another money supply soon it looks like they're stopping the economy right in in the tracks uh we don't want to go through the windshield here slamming on the brakes they uh you know they had to do it what they what they had to do uh you know we might be surprised instead of 50 to 75 basis points in july you know it might be 25 uh if they really if this if this slow down really continues now we saw oil up a bit today but we know so many of the other uh commodities have rolled over um and uh uh the economic momentum is really sharply turned negative and i i think that's that's certainly uh something that the fed has to be concerned about going forward you can't have it you can't have it both ways though you wanted them to do a hundred basis points yes and and it's to capture the negative that we're serious and i think i think they did that um uh you know we we've seen horizon i look at the tip shield because i i think that's the most relevant uh discount rate uh for the stock market and i've i've never seen a rise like this it was less than minus one at the beginning of the year it almost earlier this week uh hit plus one now that's a that's a two percentage point increase in the discount rate um that is mammoth in a period of less than six months so you wonder you know why are stocks down 20 25 you know put that in a discount formula uh and you will see why that is happening and that is really all on anticipation that the fed has to step on the the brakes slow that money supply it is happening let's hope you know they can't go overboard they got to be looking at this data being too late sometimes means that uh you may react too much not yet but uh we're in the problem uh now um scott let me say something on the good side on the good side despite the fact that the first half of this year gdp is down earnings are up 5 um over uh the the previous uh six months of last year so even with a negative gdp growth we actually manage positive uh earnings growth so that that's that's actually saying something and also think about the fact that uh we're going to be in earnings we can but we're going to be at the end of the quarter in two weeks then one week after that is earning season i haven't heard a lot of warnings i mean we heard target not yet this is the time now you know maybe the fall off we're gonna start getting them but by by and large even with this slow down earnings are coming in fairly good um and uh you know a definition of a recession technically is two consecutive quarters of gdp now we're not going to get too consecutive and by the way the only reason we're having positive gdp and i think we will get slightly positive in this quarter is really what we saw in april and early may uh end of may and june so far is a negative gdp by all indicators
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