저자: LinusLim · 외국인
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피터 린치 『One Up On Wall Street』 요약 영상으로, 시장 국면·종목 분류·밸류에이션·재무지표·포트폴리오 배분을 설명한다. 영상은 피터 린치가 마젤란 펀드를 1977~1990년 운용하며 연평균 29.2% 수익을 냈다고 소개하며 그의 투자법을 배울 가치를 강조한다. 시장 국면은 4단계로 나뉜다. 1단계는 하락 후 아무도 상승을 기대하지 않는 시기, 2단계는 저점 대비 약 15% 상승했지만 관심이 적은 시기, 3단계는 30% 상승 후 사람들이 돈을 넣기 시작하는 시기, 4단계는 주변에서 종목을 추천하는 과열기다. 발표자는 현재 3단계와 4단계 사이라고 판단하며, 근거로 충분한 조사 없이 위험을 무릅쓰는 사람들이 여전히 돈을 버는 점을 든다. 종목은 6가지로 분류된다. 저성장주(연 3~5% 성장, 배당), 고성장주(연 20~25%, 10루타 가능), 우량주(연 10~12%, 경기침체 방어), 턴어라운드주(회복 기대), 자산주(시가총액이 보유자산보다 낮은 기업), 경기순환주(자동차·항공·철강·화학 등, 타이밍이 중요)다. 발표자는 현재 경기순환주가 우량주를 상회하고 있다고 언급한다. 타이밍과 밸류에이션의 중요성도 강조된다. 좋은 기업도 과도한 가격에 사면 손실이 날 수 있으며, 마이크로소프트가 2010년 고점 약 30달러를 회복하는 데 2년이 걸린 사례를 든다. 재무지표는 매출 비중, PEG(매력적 기준 2 이상, 비매력적 0.5 이하), 현금 포지션, 단기부채(은행부채 vs 자기자본 조달 부채), 잉여현금흐름, 이익성장률(가장 중요), 업종 내 세전이익률 비교 순으로 정리된다. 포트폴리오 배분은 소규모 투자자 기준 3~10개 종목을 권하며, 린치 배분 예시로 고성장 30~40%, 우량 10~20%, 경기순환 10~20%, 나머지 턴어라운드다. 근거가 확실한 종목이 3~4개뿐이면 그것만 보유해도 된다고 말한다. 발표자는 구독과 좋아요를 요청하며 영상을 마친다.
다듬은 글
hey guys what is up welcome back to my channel in today's video i'll be sharing with you my one up on wall street peter lynch summary one up on wall street is written by peter lynch and in the book peter lynch shares his investment advice and investment strategy so if you are interested in learning about peter lynch investing method make sure you stick around in this video who is peter lynch and why do we want to learn from peter lynch peter lynch is known as the manager of magellan fund between 1977 and 1990 and during that period of time he averaged a 29.2% annual returns as manager of the fund with that kind of returns that he generated for his fund his fund was the best performing fund in the world at the time and the assets under management or aum for the fund grew from 18 million dollars to 14 billion dollars an average annual returns of 29.2% for a manager of a fund that big is really spectacular and that is why i believe that as investors and traders in the stock market we can learn a lot from peter lynch alright so now let's dive into the investing advice and investing strategy that peter lynch shared in his book one up on wall street the first lesson is the four market stages in an uptrend the reason why we want to learn about the four market stages in an uptrend is that by identifying these four stages we are better able to make our investing decisions so what do i mean by that for example in the early stages of an uptrend there's a higher probability that moving forward prices will continue to rise so what we want to do in the early stages of an uptrend is we want to enter more long positions in the market but if we are at the later market stages in an uptrend what this means is that in the near future and moving forward there's a high probability that the uptrend will end and reverse into an downtrend so in the later market stages in an uptrend we want to reduce our long positions in the market and that is why we want to learn how to identify the four market stages in an uptrend in stage one these are some of the characteristics that you observe in the market the first thing is that the market has been down a while and nobody expects it to rise again and because the market has been down a while and most investors aren't making money people aren't talking much about stocks at that time in stage two the market is up by about 15 percent from stage one but few people are paying attention at this stage people are still worried about the stock market in stage three the market is up 30% from stage one at this stage more and more people are noticing the stock market and are starting to put their money back into the stock market because around at this time many people in the stock market are making money regardless whether they are savvy investor or not and that is why everybody at the party has put money into one stock on another and they'll discuss what's happening in the stock market those are some signs in the market in state three of an uptrend and in stage four most people in the stock market are making money right now and they feel empowered in the stock market because they're making money and it's also at this time that people are starting to tell you what stocks to buy and perhaps this is one of the most obvious signs in a stage 4 market uptrend when your neighbours tell you what to buy and you wish you had taken that advice it's a sure sign that the market has reached the top and is due for a tumble okay now that we have went through all four stages of a market uptrend which stage do you think we are currently at right now from my own personal experience i believe we are somewhere between stage 3 and stage 4 of a market uptrend the u.s stock market has risen quite a fair bit since the crash in march of 2020 and right now many if not most people are invested in the stock market it's not the fact that their portfolio is in the green right now that indicates to me that we are somewhere between stage 3 and stage 4 of a market up trend rather is the fact that i see people taking huge risks and not doing their proper research and still are making money that is what indicates to me that we are somewhere between stage 3 and stage 4 of a market uptrend what do you guys think which stage of a market uptrend do you think we are currently in right now let me know down in the comments below and if you are enjoying and have learned something from this video so far smash the like button because it will really help the channel grow and allow me to produce more content such as this all right let's go on to the next point the second lesson from peter lynch in one up wall street is the six categories of stocks these are the six categories that peter lynch classified his stocks under and by understanding which category the stock we are investing is in we are better able to know what to expect in terms of returns and what to look out for what peter lynch does is that before investing in any stock he would first classify the stock under one of these six categories and by classifying the stocks that he wants to invest in peter lynch is able to have a game plan for each of the stocks that he invests in based on this individual categories the first category of stocks are the slow growers slow growers stocks are expected to grow slightly faster than the gdp so around three to five percent each year and when an industry at large slows down most of the companies within the industry lose momentum as well which means that most of the companies within an industry which loses momentum tends to be slow growers and one first sign of a slow grower is that it pays a generous and regular dividend so companies such as coca-cola and mcdonald's are currently classified under slow growers the second category of stocks are the fast growers these stocks belong to small aggressive new companies that grow at a rate of around 20 to 25 percent a year and these stocks have the potential to be 10 bagger or more or what most retail investors know now as to the moon the fast growing company doesn't necessarily have to belong to a fast-growing industry it can be within a slow growing industry but all it needs is room to expand within that slow growing industry and for these fast growers peter lynch looks for the companies that have a good balance sheet and are making substantial profits for the third category of stocks they are the stalwarts they're not exactly growing fast but they are faster than the slow growth so they typically experience a 10 to 12 percent annual growth in earnings and peter lynch keeps some of these stalwarts in his portfolio because they offer good protection during recessions and hard times and stalwarts in the market right now are companies such as microsoft and apple the fourth category of stocks are turnarounds these are stocks that have been battered and depressed however turnaround stocks make up lost ground very quickly so if you are able to catch the turnaround you'll be able to profit handsomely from the stock furthermore for the turnaround stocks their ups and downs are least related to the general market the fifth category of stocks are the asset plays so what assets do we pay attention to the asset doesn't have to be very complicated the asset can be as simple as a pile of cash what we want to look out for in asset play is that the stock price or market capitalization of the company being lower than the total amount of assets that that company owns so if you are able to find a company whose current stock price is below that of its assets then you have found yourself an asset play the sixth and final category of stocks is the cyclicals cyclicals are companies whose sales and profits rise and fall in regular if not predictable fashion some examples of cyclicals are the auto industry the airline industries tire companies steel companies and chemical companies coming out of a recession and into a vigorous economy these stocks tend to flourish and their stock prices tend to rise much faster than the price of the stalwarts which is currently what we are experiencing in the stock market the cyclical stocks are outperforming the stalwarts or the growth stocks and for cycles timing is everything for these stocks catch them at the right time and you'll be able to make a tidy sum of money but if you catch them at the wrong time then you could possibly experience losses in your portfolio so those are the six categories of stocks the third lesson that i learned from peter lynch in his book one up on wall street is that timing and valuation matters buying the right stocks of fundamentally strong companies is just one part of the equation the second and third part of the equation is timing and valuation because if we buy the right stocks at the wrong price and at the wrong time we'll suffer great losses and even if we don't suffer great losses we could see our money getting stuck and not making any significant returns for quite a period of time we don't want to buy a company just because its fundamentals are good it must not be overvalued too because wonderful companies can become risky investments when people overpay for them if you take a look at this example over here back around in late march or early may of 2010 we see microsoft reached a high of around $30 and it is after two years in 2012 that price managed to reach the previous high back in 2010.
so microsoft may be a fundamentally strong company but if we buy at the wrong time we could see our money being stuck in the stock market without making any significant returns or worse suffer great losses from it and that is why timing and valuation matters too the next lesson are some of the numbers that peter lynch take a look at before making a decision when investing in the stock market the first is percentage of sales and by taking a look at a percentage of sales we are asking the question what does the product means to the company in question does this specific product make up a huge percentage of the company's total sales what percentage of sales does it represent the reason why we'll take a look at the percentage of sales is for example if we think that a certain product will help a company we first want to see what percentage of sales does the product make up of the total sales of the company if it only makes up a small percentage of sales even how good the product may be it is not really going to affect the company much but if on the other hand the product makes up a huge percentage of sales for the company then it is very likely that if the product does well it will contribute a lot to the revenue of the company so that is one thing we want to pay attention to the next thing that peter lynch take a look at is the pe and peg ratio for peter lynch an attractive peg ratio is two or more and an unattractive peg ratio is 0.5 or less i will link a video on the top right of your screen talking about the peg ratio in greater detail but for now this is some of the benchmark that peter lynch take a look at when considering the pg ratio of a company the next thing that peter lynch takes a look out for is cash position for the stock you want to see the company having an increasing cash position the next thing is that and peter lynch has this to say if there's enough cash to cover short-term debt then we don't have to worry about short-term debt and from that it is usually separated between bank debt versus funded debt and for bank that peter lynch saying that bank debt isn't very good and just because it's named bank debt it doesn't necessarily have to come from a bank bank debts are debt that are typically due very soon and that means that the lender can ask for his or her money back at the first sign of trouble on the other hand funded that which peter lynch thinks is better can never be caught in no matter how big the situation as long as the borrower continues to pay their interest those are some things to pay attention to when analyzing the debt of a company the next thing is cash flow cash flow is the amount of money a company takes in as a result of doing business and we take a look at free cash flow free cash flow is what's left over after the normal capital spending is taken out is the cash that the company have taken in that the company doesn't have to spend and because of that peter lynch prefers to invest in companies that don't have a high capital spending the cash that come in doesn't have to struggle against the cash that goes out so basically peter lynch wants to look in a company which has increasing cash flow the next thing is growth rate and peter lynch believes that the most important growth rate is the earnings growth rate a company in a declining industry can still be a great company as long as its earnings continue to grow furthermore earnings doesn't have to come from increasing its customer base it can be from increasing prices and or decreasing costs when looking at growth rate the growth rate that we want to pay the most attention to is earnings and the next thing that peter lynch takes a look at is profit margins and he takes a look at the profit before taxes or the pre-tax profit margin and one thing he points out is this generally we want to see companies with high profit margins but one thing to take note is that we only want to compare profit margins within the same industry because it doesn't really make sense to compare the profit margin from one industry to another because each individual industry have different standards when it comes to profit margins what we want to do is compare profit margins within the same industry so if you are taking a look at a company in the consumer cyclical industry we want to compare the profit margins of the company against other consumer cyclical company the fifth lesson that i learned from peter lynch in his one up on wall street book is portfolio allocation i realized that many investors have these two questions how many stocks to own and the second should i diversify on the topic of diversification peter lynch advised owning as many stocks as there are situations in which a) you got an edge in and b) you have uncovered an exciting prospect that passes all the tests of research so take note of these two criteria when you're investing and buying stocks the first is that you have to be sure that you have a mathematical edge in the markets which means that the probability of you making money is higher than the probability of you losing money the second thing is that the company has to pass all of your criteria be in fundamental criteria or technical criteria or both and if the stocks that you are taking a look at fulfills these two criteria then you can own these stocks according to peter lynch i think many at times investors get this part wrong they are taught to diversify however many investors choose to diversify just for the sake of diversification so even if these investors are not too sure about the company they will still continue to invest in the companies just because they want to diversify their portfolio and peter lynch think that this is not a good investing strategy and with that said for a small portfolio peter lynch also shares my same belief that for an investor who owns a small portfolio three to ten stocks are the stocks that you should own within your portfolio and this is peter lynch portfolio allocation he allocates no more than 30 to 40 percent in growth stocks and he allocates anywhere between 10 to 20 percent in storage and 10 to 20 percent in cyclicals and the remaining amount he invests in turn around stocks this is how peter lynch would fill his portfolio you don't have to follow this allocation what i'm sharing with you right now is how peter lynch allocates his portfolio if only three to four stocks fulfills the two criteria that peter lynch sets out for you just now then all you need is to invest in those three to four stocks because as peter lynch mentioned in his book there's no point diversifying for diversification sake if you have an edge in the stock and the stock passes your criteria in your research then just invest in those stocks that's my one up on wall street peter lynch summary hopefully you guys have learned a lot from this video and if you are new to this channel and haven't already subscribed to this channel make sure you subscribe to this channel because each week i release new videos about investing trading in the stock market if you have liked this video make sure you check out my other videos i'm pretty sure you'll like them i'll see you in those other videos to your financial success
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