저자: NickMarson · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 니오(NIO)가 중국 시장에서 테슬라를 이길 가능성이 크며, 중국 정부의 지원이 이를 뒷받침한다는 주장. [중국 정부 지원] 2019년 파산 위기 때 중국 정부(허페이·안후이성 지방정부 등)가 구제금융을 제공하고 약 24% 지분을 취득, 니오차이나 자회사를 설립했다. 이후 판매와 성장이 급반전했다고 주장. [정책 우위] 보조금 정책에서 30만 위안 이상 고급차 보조금 축소 시에도 교체형 배터리를 가진 니오는 보조금 대상으로 유지됐다. 테슬라는 교체형 배터리가 없어 제외된다고 설명. 정부·군 인원의 테슬라 구매·사용 금지도 언급. [인프라·공장] 지방정부가 배터리 교체 인프라와 국가전망공사(State Grid) 연계 계약을 지원. 연간 30만 대 규모 신규 공장(산업 자동차 파크)이 약 370일 후 가동될 것으로 예상, 니오가 공장 비용을 부담하지 않을 가능성을 언급. [지분·ADR] 정부 지분은 현재 10% 미만으로 줄었다고 언급하며, 니오 ADR 투자자는 시가총액의 약 90% 수준에만 노출된다는 점을 리스크로 제시. [경쟁 구도] 샤오펑(X-Peng)이 모델3 경쟁자가 될 수 있다는 시장 분석이 있으나, 진행자는 니오의 ET7 다음 세단 모델이 모델3를 더 직접 공격할 것이라고 추측. [실적 전망] 4월 29일 장 마감 후 1분기 실적 발표 예정, 주당 16센트 손실 추정치. 차량·매출총이익률과 기타 매출(니오파워 액세서리·클라우드) 증가 여부를 관전 포인트로 제시. 실적 발표 전 주가 상승 기대. 전 주 6거래일 연속 상승 언급. [출연자 전망] 진행자는 테슬라를 선호한다고 밝히면서도 니오에 더 강세. 캐시 우드 발언 인용: 중국 정부가 로컬 챔피언을 원하며 니오, 샤오펑, 테슬라 중 누가 될지는 불확실하다고 봄. 단, 캐시 우드는 테슬라를 최대 보유 종목으로 유지. [리스크] 정부 지분과 지원에 따른 ADR 구조적 한계, 테슬라 경쟁 및 샤오펑 추격, 실적 미스 가능성(직전 분기 9센트 미스).
다듬은 글
there's one major factor that neo possesses over north american powerhouse competitors namely tesla and interestingly whatever tesla does it won't be able to match it's something that will propel neo to become a dominant force within the chinese landscape and exponentially carve into other brand market shares in the coming months quarters and years and this may seem like a simple concept however it's actually magnificently complex and that's neo's birthplace and origin china now the fact that neo is a front-runner in terms of the chinese ev space and rapidly expanding and accelerating its reach inherently is all the more reason to believe in this company's future success within this chinese space in today's episode we're going to be looking at why neo will likely be able to out compete massive north american brand companies like tesla within the chinese market we're going to be touching on what kathy wood thinks about neo and their potential within the country and finally where i think neo will land in the coming weeks moving into q1 earnings welcome to the show my name is nick this one's gonna be a fun one before we get it weeble is giving out two free stocks worth up to 1850 for free you can trade before and after hours markets this is zero percent commission you really cannot lose the link is in my description you do not want to sleep on this one if you want to support the channel check out our patreon page we have more content behind the scenes under the radar stocks this also gains you access into our private discord channel all right ladies and gents let's get right into it alright so i want to start off by playing a clip from the legendary kathy wood she is of course the founder and ceo of the equally legendary arkhan vest you've got an ecosystem building around china we know that neo we don't own it but we think that government decree they want a local champion we don't know if it's going to be neo or x-pung which is patterning itself after tesla or if it will be tesla itself i doubt that i doubt that because china wants a local winner uh but we think they're all over uh that market now let's think about this for a second this is an incredibly important statement let's break it down for a moment kathy wood has long been one of the most bullish investors of tesla the stock remains their top holding in their innovation fund with around 3.3 million shares at a 2.4 billion dollar market value wood sees tesla as essentially having a chokehold on virtually every single aspect of the ev industry they are also becoming increasingly diversified rapidly moving into the energy space forming a near monopoly on cleantech now if you have watched my show before you will know i am a huge proponent of tesla they are one of my favorite companies however i am equally if not more bullish on neo and here's why neo is quickly becoming china pride china is the largest electric vehicle market in the world and will remain on top of the leaderboard for years if not decades to come the chinese government were quick to adapt this novel tech as decreasing carbon emissions in their highly air polluted country has become a necessity china has been searching for a domestic electric vehicle brand to be proud of to promote and to shoot in the stratosphere a real competitor to other top ev brands like tesla and many analysts and investors think that the country has found this opportunity with the homegrown neo now a thing to know and consider about chinese companies is that almost always there exists some form of government stake and sway within the company and in this case neo is no different during 2019 when neo was on the verge of bankruptcy the government stepped in they offered neo a bailout a second chance at success however in doing this they took around a 24 stake in the company nearly a quarter and formed a subsidiary called neochina now without a question this bailout saved neo from sure bankruptcy and we see that both their sales and their trajectory drastically reversed they have since been on a relentless expansion program now many analysts have noted that without the stake from local government based in hefei in hanoi province neo even with the cash position would have not succeeded as fast as they did and this is an extremely important point we see time and time again hints of the local government incentivizing consumers to turn towards neo while actively decentralizing foreign brands this was most clearly demonstrated when subsidy programs for luxury electric vehicles were being slashed in china listen up the chinese government decided that vehicles costing more than 300 000 renminbi should not be offered the same subsidy programs as economy classes therefore they cut these subsidy programs for luxury electric vehicles while neo costing more than three hundred thousand renminbi should have also had their subsidy programs cut too right nope this is not the case the government deemed that because neo has swappable and removable batteries that the subsidy programs would continue to apply to them even though they are a luxury brand now either china is thirsty for swappable batteries or they want to actively promote consumers to turn towards domestic brands like neo while decentralizing foreign luxury brands like tesla tesla of course does not have a swappable battery and therefore does not qualify for the subsidy program now it is of course beneficial for the local economy to promote neo and this is what the government is doing the chinese government recently banned government and military personnel from purchasing and using tesla's within china as concerns over the use of their cameras to potentially capture security intel for the us government rose tesla obviously denies this but it's just another reason why it's going to be hard for them to consistently stay ahead of the looming pack in the years coming it's almost a david vs goliath scenario with neo kind of being like goliath's best friend anyways we also see the local government aiding neo in their battery swapping infrastructure program they are continually aiding the company in forming deals with big names and using the state grid we recently discovered that it's unlikely that neo will be fronting the bill of their upcoming facility the new industrial auto park this is where neo's new factory with a 300 000 capacity per annum will be implemented in about 370 days time now time and time again we see china pushing the brand and propelling them forward we do see neo purchasing back some of the stake from neochina the state now just owns under a 10 stake in the company however as i've been noting sometimes it does not hurt to have friends in high places and kathy woods seems to strongly agree i don't think neo will purchase back the entire company from neochina however as neo-adr investors like me and you it's important to note that we are actually only exposed to around 90 of their market capitalization and returns something to consider i do think in the coming months we will see yet more connections between neo and the state they do want a domestic brand to dominate and it's clear they have their eyes on neo to become that brand many analysts believe that x-pong has an opportunity to act as the future model 3 competitor within china however i think neo's next model after the et7 which we have learned will likely be a sedan will be a far more direct attack against the model 3 and then will likely push out some of x-punk's market share just some speculation we'll have to keep a close eye on all of these developments now moving into april 29th after market closes neo is releasing their q1 earnings earlier than they did in past years many think this is due to the bullish nature of the quarter we know they did indeed hit an all-time record and i do think we'll see shares jump leading into the call i will of course have full live coverage of the event so make sure to subscribe estimates are projecting around a 16 cent loss per share equal to their miss in q4 which they missed by nine cents i'm going to be watching for vehicle and gross margins breaking on 20 and if we have increased other revenue namely from neopower accessories and neopower cloud i do expect we will push slightly higher above this 16 cent loss mark i will have a full video highlighting my q1 breakdown in the coming days it will be extremely interesting and i do think this could propel neo shares next week we have seen now a six day straight in the green can we go seven can we go beyond we'll have to see it is a very interesting time for the company don't forget about the weeble promo two free stocks worth up to 1850 you could trade before and after hours markets it really is a can't lose all you have to do is one sign up to open an account and three deposit in at least 100 using the link in my description if you want to support the channel check out our patreon page we have more content behind the scenes under the radar stocks this also gains you access into our private discord channel anyways everyone i'll see you all in the next video take care happy trading cheers
Comments 0