저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인은 0 아니면 수백만 달러가 되는 이항적 투자이며, 달러 대체 시나리오가 현실화될 확률이 높아졌으니 '바보 보험(schmuck insurance)'으로 일부 보유할 만하다. 비트코인 성격: 2013년 약 80달러 근처에 대량 매수했으나 이후 추가 매수는 없음. 현재 보유분은 회사 지분 형태로 운용 중. 가격 시나리오: 현재 약 3.9만 달러 수준에서 장기적으로 10만, 15만, 20만 달러 방향으로 갈 것이라 주장. 기간은 5~10년이라고 언급. 달러 대체론: 달러보다 9시그마 더 변동성이 큰 자산은 통화 대체가 어렵다고 지적하며, 현재 비트코인은 투기꾼·단기매매 영역에 머물러 있다고 진단. 거시 전망: 연준의 인플레이션 대응이 실패하고 디플레이션이 지속되면 2030년까지 금본위 유사 체계 필요성이 커질 수 있다. 확률은 과거 1%에서 현재 5~10%로 상향 평가. 리스크: 정부·중앙은행 합의 실패 가능성이 크며, 변동성이 극단적이므로 단기 매매 대상으로는 부적합. 개인 포트폴리오: 버진갤럭틱 지분 일부(약 380만 주) 매도는 유동성 확보 목적이며 회사에 대한 신뢰는 유지한다고 설명. 기후 투자와 학자금 대출 사업에 자금 투입 계획. 출연자 전망: 비트코인 장기 상승 관점 유지, 단기 가격 예측은 명시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
i've always thought of bitcoin as a very binary investment whether it goes from 80 to 8000 to 6000 to 3000 to 13 000 it just it doesn't matter this is either zero or it's millions we are driving slowly but we are driving towards a top of a cliff and then we are going to drive much much faster down that cliff or down that hill and at the end of it is a is a huge brick wall this leads to bitcoin right you're famous for calling it the schmuck insurance uh i'm not going to say that we're in the situation where the insurance is uh is needed yet but we're definitely headed that direction over a long period of time how have your views on bitcoin kind of changed over time and have you bought more bitcoin sold bitcoin or changed anything kind of from portfolio allocation standpoint um so first of all i think you said it exactly right which is that i think that this is the setup meaning i think bitcoin needed a moment like this um for it to be relevant um in 2003 oh sorry 2013 um i bought a lot and at one point i think i had almost five percent of all the bitcoins uh my basis is about 80 bucks a coin um i've never bought more um most of my bitcoin now sit with a company um and you know they use it for trading purposes they use it to run a bunch of other strategies and i did that mostly for safety and security and peace of mind i didn't want to deal with it i wanted to own equity in a business that equity can be hedged that equity can be tax structured advantageously and then it allows them to run a big business which generates cash and i can get a cash and you know dividend stream um so i have not bought since i uh initially uh basically wrote that article for bloomberg in 2013.
um my thoughts are the following right now i think what you're seeing is that it's still a speculative instrument and it's too speculative for it to be reliable um so if you're going to make the case that you know it should replace fiat currency well one thing you have to look at is the volatility of the us dollar and you can't replace it with something that's nine sigma more volatile it doesn't work um and the reason it doesn't work is that it's two again going back to what markets are important the only market that's even more important than the debt markets are the currency markets and what you see is enormous amounts of liquidity where five percent moves so 500 basis point moves are newsworthy well those 500 basis point moves in the absence of some massive exogenous event take years to play up and in that there is value because it allows more market participants to be active in that market so that they can use it as a critical pillar of how they run their business but now all of a sudden if you have 2 000 basis point moves a half hour you can't effectively use it and so what it does is it pushes it into this ghetto of day traders and and speculators and right now that's where we are we're in that ghetto and uh you need to get out and the way that it gets out is that you need to flush the speculators and day traders out and you need to have still some basis of interest from long-term holders and then you need to have it slowly look like the traditional infrastructure could really implode so again i'd go back to we are driving slowly but we are driving towards a top of a cliff and then we're going to drive much much faster down that cliff or down that hill and at the end of it is a is a huge brick wall the way we avoid it is by pivoting to a resilient economy where we introduced inefficiency and cost and inflate our way out of it or debasement the path dependence for bitcoin is if it looks like path 2 is likely it will really emerge as a flight to safety and over the next 10 years where this trajectory is going to take shape and it is a 10-year trajectory you'll have a lot of time to vector into it to protect yourself and to hedge yourself and i've always thought of bitcoin as a very binary investment whether it goes from 80 to 8000 to 6000 to 3000 to 13 000 it just it doesn't matter this is either zero or it's millions um because what it will do is it will create a quasi gold standard it'll create an index except instead of having to own gold where gold is owned by central banks it is an instrument that has value that's determined by and between its participants and it's owned by everybody so maybe the correct way to say this is that it's not gold but in gold being gold 2.0 which some people have used about bitcoin what it does is it replaces the the method of value transfer that you need for fiat money to be valuable but that only happens if the us dollar looks like it's going to careen into this wall so i think that's the bet so the setup is here so before there was no path dependence meaning you were speculating and not really hoping because you know if you were if you're using it schmuck insurance as i was you were kind of hoping it would never come in but now if the probability you know was one percent that that it would be valuable unfortunately the probability is now probably like five or ten percent um and there is a real chance by 2030 um we don't find a way to inflate our way out of this and that the only way to break the back of deflation is essentially to create some quasi form of gold standard but it'll be almost impossible to do that between governments and central banks they'll never agree on an instrument and will never agree on an exchange but then bottoms up people could decide to do it yeah and the minute that that happens individuals and people then it's a done deal all right chamoth we don't have that much time left let's talk rocket ships first bitcoin that falls into that category because that's what that is 39 000 um where's it going i mean can you play the clip in 2012 and 13 when it was at 200 and everybody was laughing at me on cnbc every time i would talk about bitcoin where is it going it's probably going to a hundred then 150 then 200 000.
in what period i don't know five years ten years but it's going there and the reason is because every time you see all of this stuff happening it just reminds you that wow our leaders are not as trustworthy and reliable as they used to be and so just in case we really do need to have some kind of you know insurance we can keep under our pillow that gives us some access to an uncorrelated hedge and it's going to eventually transition to something much more important but for right now you're just getting all these data points that prove this thing it's just the fabric of society is frayed and until we figure out how to make it better it's time to just have a little uh schmuck insurance on the side and everybody's running in it's just an incredible thing i could never have imagined it good to be a schmuck i guess if you got if you got in early and it goes to where you think it's going to go uh the other rocket i want to talk to you about uh and i know people are interested in this virgin galactic uh the company maybe it was your first spec deal i think it was you sold a fair amount of that 38 or so 40 around there why no it was less than that i sold a portion 3.8 million shares of just the pipe my overall holdings and it was literally just to make sure that i had the right liquidity to do all the things that i plan to do in 2021 but i really believe in that business it's an incredible team it's an incredible product i think the way that they're thinking about it our ceo michael colglazer is just so impressive um one of the top executives from disney that we were able to lure over the team he's building is amazing i am i'm really really excited about that and i'm just really proud to be around him i ask you because some people took that that sale as maybe a a lack of we gonna go i'm sure you understand that yeah i mean look at the at the end of the day you know if i if and when i think it's probably more when than if i have 10 times the capital that i do now i'll be able to manage my liquidity in a different way but you know at the end of the day i'm trying to move a lot of balls forward i'm making multiple billions of dollars of investments this year into climate change i'm going to try something really disruptive in student loans and all of that takes money and so you know i just have to be able to manage everything in my infrastructure to make sure that i can do all of these things and that's what it was
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