저자: TomLee · 외국인
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2024 미 대선은 초접전으로 개표 지연·불확실성이 커져 시장이 흔들릴 가능성이 높다. 베팅시장은 트럼프 우세(약 57%)였으나 여론조사는 접전. 불확실성 해소 후 펀더멘털(좋은 실적, 연준 비둘기파)로 연말 랠리 기대. 트럼프 승리 시 비트코인 단기 급등, 해리스 승리 시 단기 하락 후 2025년 1분기 신고점 전망. 알트코인은 대선 결과에 따라 엇갈리며, 해리스 승리 시 규제 강화로 알트 랠리는 약화될 수 있다.
다듬은 글
I mean turnout is really what's going to swing this election Tom Lee the managing partner and head of research at fund Strat Global advisors Reveals His 2024 us election prediction as well as how this will affect you as a Bitcoin investor last time you were on you talked about the Trump trade being pretty strong um a lot of things turned back reversed uh djt revers Bitcoin didn't hold the didn't move into the mid 70s got into the low 70s I don't know whether the banks and other Trump trade exchange and all the betting markets certainly moderated late last week came back a little bit do you think if you have a change in in your opinion on the election now and that's true because even in just the last week actually five six days ago Trump's favorability to win was almost 67% with kamla around 33 today things have changed with Trump now only a 57% favorite and KLA 42 again these are the prediction markets the official polls have things much much closer well it does seem like over the last four or five days the the election really narrowed when you look at betting markets or the polls and I know a lot of people don't necessarily trust polls but I think the quality and the adjustments of the polls have made them more accurate so I think it it is really a tossup and it's it's going to be a a very close election and something our clients are preparing for cuz because we did a survey last week 76% don't think we'll have a winner declared election night and 43% roughly expected one week after so I think markets are kind of bracing for this period of uncertainty I think that's why many of the trades have reversed and it should be noted that the number one thing that will cause volatility in a market is uncertainty meaning if there's a clear either Kamala win or a clear Trump win it's more a landslide that is much much better compared to what maybe the more likely cases will be and we'll get to this chart in a second watch the whole video so I think it's going to be a week where there's going to be a lot of worry um one thing I'm I was thinking about over the weekend though is I think the Market's fear of uncertainty will Peak before it's very likely it Peaks before the election outcome is actually decided so understanding all that and by the way not all prediction markets are created equal poly Market is a whole lot closer the Marx Market is still insanely bullish on Trump meaning on Marx and I'll link this down below if you were to put $100 let's say on a trump Victory you would have a potential return of $40 or $140 in total yet if you put $100 on comma you could secure up to $310 in total that's a potential 210% potential return less than 24 hours left I will link this down below actually just 14 hours left and by the way use Link down below or code altcoin and claim up to $10,000 in bonuses but are prediction markets like this entirely accurate I mean I would say the mainstream media showing you polls they have a skew but also the prediction markets we have to acknowledge who's using them or not using them one of the one of the things that's happened in the polls is the view that there's a lot more women going going to to vote them for but that these signals whether it be Bitcoin or whether it be djt stock or whether it be the betting markets may also all be off if this is true on the on the assumption that actually there are are is a very small percentage of the people in the betting markets who are women for example there's very small percentage of people who are women who actually trade in Bitcoin not who own Bitcoin but who trade in Bitcoin uh very uh small group of women who are trading in djt stock what do you think of that I think there's some Credence to that just because we know like when you look at the Iowa polls it was really the senior Women Voters that changed a lot and uh you're right these markets can be narrow um and they're very responsive to to changes in liquidity and it is I think it's a very tight race I mean it's it's going to be very close I think anyone who thinks that they know who's going to win is is is really playing with fate because because I think it's very tight right so Tomley at this point isn't willing to pick a candidate it's too close but once we have a winner how this will affect you as an investor I'm bullish only in the sense that election uncertainty has caused people to drisk and cash to sit on the sidelines but the fundamentals have been good earning season's been very good the FED is doish and I I don't think it's going to matter who ends up in the White House even if it's split Congress or a sweep I think markets do pretty well either way so it sets up for a really good rally into year end but when it starts in November is just what we don't know and let me share with you my prediction if you hold Bitcoin my chart depending on which candidate wins but in the latest altcoin news waves founder unveils units protocol for layer 2 interoperability so I am Sasha ianov I launched waves blockchain back in 2016 it's like an OG chain very old just no waves used to be one of the top block chains top 10 back in 2017 today it's more of an old dog in the space although the metrics the holders there is still a large community but now we are moving forward so what we are doing now we are turning waves into an ecosystem of interconnected evm chains and waves itself is becoming a layer zero that connects those chains in a trustless manner so just to be clear the waves founder is launching a new protocol for layer to interoperability actually thank you units Network for sponsoring this segment of today's video and in a nutshell units network is a modular infrastructure with layer zero scalability and reaking for consensus and I know what you're thinking Austin don't we have interoperability chains today don't we have l2s today well waves found founder Sasha ivanof explains why units protocol is actually very much needed as an L2 so the k state of this like L2 narrative you don't have like full decentralization there so what you have there is usually one sequencer node on which all those like layers run and you also don't have like trustless interaction between those uh chains because usually have just centralized net centralized bridges that connect those chains and that's where what we're building units Network comes into play so it's aiming to be the most decentralized connect conting the most chains but also there will be demand pressure from the current waves holders so we have like a network of validators uh waves validators and actually they uh validate not only waves but all those chains connected to it so what happens actually uh they uh restake their waves balance in those chains basically their contribution is based on their waves balance and the consensus that is established in w waves is exported to those higher chains making them properly decentralized and waves itself is becoming not even layer one it's becoming layer zero and all those like connected chains which were like layer twos they become layer ones because they are properly decentralized so I will link this down below for you to do your own research be aware this is launching soon November 5th on multiple different exchanges so ECT volatility things get very very volatile around launches and also volatile around elections so this is my chart this is my prediction on what happens post election and let's start with Trump looking at a clear Trump win or a clear commin to me I put best case in the sense that it's clear it's a landslide it's virtually not up for debate although we'll see what the candidates choose to Contest time will tell but if Trump wins to me that's an instant Bitcoin pump I mean he has ran on Pro economy he's also ran on Pro Bitcoin you can type in on YouTube right now every single promise Donald Trump has made to bitcoin holders and it's clear he is positioning himself he he has positioned himself as the Bitcoin candidate that being said if kamla wins just based on sentiment alone I think we'll see an instant Bitcoin and actually crypto in general dump this would be just un sentiment kamla really hasn't said that many pro Bitcoin statements I mean she put out a pamphlet for black men how she'll protect the Bitcoin rights of black men in America she's also made statements lumping digital assets and Ai and just future Innovation together so for that reason Market sentiment I expect a dump looking at a trump win in the weeks to follow I would expect we see a new Bitcoin all-time high within weeks I mean this year 2024 is only less it's only about 7 weeks remaining I think Bitcoin surpasses its all-time high before 2025 now for Kamala even though we get a Bitcoin dump on the day on the weeks probably weeks that follow this Bitcoin train is not stopping I think we see a new Bitcoin all-time high in q1 of 2025 I mean there's a clear lack of Supply on the market and black rock and Fidelity and the US Bitcoin ETFs are currently buying up the supply every single week compared to the amount of Bitcoin that are being mined also Bitcoin is already regulated so I would expect this trend to continue really I think the altcoins in the broader crypto Market that's where we're going to start to see the major differences if Trump wins I think the altcoin Bull Run starts within weeks continues into 2025 and through 2025 if commo wins I do think altcoins in the long run I think they will dump harder than Bitcoin initially but I do think in the long run into 2025 on Bey and Beyond they'll do better than the last four years but just okay in general I do say better than the last four years because really it's Gary Gensler the head of the SEC that was appointed by the Biden Administration specifically not kamla but through Biden's appointees he has been a huge net negative for crypto with either candidate they appoint their own people any appointee other than Gary Gensler will be better than Gary Gensler and there will be a new appointee no matter who wins so much less of an altcoin Bull Run in my opinion for next year if comma gets in but I do think that more regulated cryptos like in ethereum maybe like a Solana I think this will be better for them also a comma victory in general just thinking out loud might be better for Bitcoin because if altcoins are going to have all this uncertainty maybe a lot of that crypto money will just go into Bitcoin just go into ethereum cuz there's uh uncertainty in the market also maybe meme coins will really pop off if kamla wins as a big like Fu to the system maybe we'll see a future where it's just Ultra Ultra regulated and then Ultra Ultra meme coin unregulated again a lot of people get mad at me for saying Austin why don't you take a clear position on a candidate one way or the other and to that I say we have 1.49 million subscribers because we try to the best of our ability to give you all the information on both sides so you so you can make the best decision for you and that brings us to what I think would be the more likely scenario if we go weeks and weeks and weeks and we're not sure who wins candidates are contesting it from both sides I mean the polls do suggest this is going to be ultra close but if it looks like a trump win in any aspect even though it's much much less I do think we'll get a Bitcoin pump on that news although much less and also longterm this does not change a thing new Bitcoin alltime highs within weeks at least by month one or two of next year and on the flip side if it looks like kamla is likely going to win although so much more uncertainty I think Bitcoin will dump in the uncertainty although much less but again due to bitcoin already being regulated I do think we see new Bitcoin all-time Highs at least in q1 of next year and as for altcoins whether a look looks like maybe Trump will win or maybe kamalo will win in the short term I think that means major altcoin uncertainty although as the weeks continue and we do get more of a winner then I would revert to either Trump best case or k best case on where this altcoin market trends
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