저자: ElitheComputerGuy · 외국인
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머스크의 X·xAI·SpaceX 연쇄 인수로 SpaceX 주가가 고점 225달러 대비 약 50% 하락(현 110달러대)했고, 테슬라와 SpaceX 합병설이 제기됨. 화자는 머스크 기업들이 실패한 프로젝트가 많고 테슬라는 AI 기업으로서의 가치가 불분명하다고 비판. 테슬라 주가도 고점 485달러 대비 약 1/3 하락한 307달러로 언급. 합병 가능성에 대한 JP모건 애널리스트·Deepwater 의견을 인용하되 화자 자신의 예측은 없음. 지배구조 문제 및 과거 머스크 베팅 실패 사례 중심의 비판적 시각.
다듬은 글
According to Reuters, Musk supports rumors of a Tesla and SpaceX merger. Pointing to the growth of their overlap. Hooray. Exciting. So, essentially, when Elon Musk bought Twitter and couldn't make it better , he forced XAI to buy Twitter to make it seem like a successful company. And when XAI started burning money at a tremendous rate, he forced SpaceX to buy XAI to make it look like a successful company.
And then, when SpaceX became the owner of both XAI and Twitter, and that started to cause problems, he took the company to an IPO to make this whole mess look like a successful business. And now that SpaceX's stock price is falling, it's at $113 per share. It fell to $110.85 per share. Not close enough for me to make a separate video about SpaceX stock, but pretty close, right?
They went public at $135 per share . At first, people bought them for $150 a share. The high about a month ago was $225 per share. So, it has literally fallen by about 50% from its all-time high. So now that SpaceX's valuation is plummeting, it looks like he wants to merge it with Tesla. And yes, you know, that sounds quite appropriate for 2026.
And that's the strange thing that's happening right now with all of this, with Elon Musk and the corporate takeover that's happening right now . One of the things that struck me as interesting was Gwynne Shotwell, right? So, she's the CEO of SpaceX, and this is one of those random statements. What should have been a random statement that no one cares about .
But then you think about what that really means and you're like, "What the hell?" because she basically said that Elon Musk would be better off if the two companies merged. Now think about this, and I want you to really understand this about both SpaceX and Tesla. These are public companies, right? It is important to understand that in public companies, the CEO is not the owner of the company.
The founder is not the owner of the company, right? The people who own capital, the people who own shares of the company, are the owners of the company. And the strange thing that we have with all this—I don't know, Elon Musk's universe or something— is that everything is based on what he's up to these days , and that's very strange for public companies.
If you look at Tesla, it's now worth a trillion dollars. If you look at SpaceX , I don't know, it's worth somewhere around $1.3 or $1.4 trillion right now. So these are trillion dollar companies that are literally run by the whims of one particular person. This , this is strange. I mean, the board of directors has no real power, right?
We're talking about a board of directors takeover. He completely and utterly took over the council. At SpaceX, he literally took over the board, and at Tesla , he essentially did it from a practical perspective. And so now he simply controls these companies. And it's interesting to think about this in the case of SpaceX and Tesla, when you hear people talking about Elon Musk, they say: never go against Elon Musk.
It's always a mistake to bet against Elon Musk, you know, except for all the times he's failed. This is one of the strange things about Elon Musk. You understand how much people ignore his failures. I don't even think about Hyperloop anymore, right? But he failed with Hyperloop. What the hell is going on with the Boring Company?
He failed with the Roadster. What the hell is going on with Semi trucks? Uh, robotaxis seem to be at a dead end too. What happened to cybercab, cybertaxi? Remember that two-seater piece of crap that was supposed to be in development right now, but nothing has been heard about it . Er, full autopilot that doesn't actually kill people.
They are still working on it. True. There are so many things that Elon Musk does that he fails at. But for some reason, in mythology, in narrative, no one ever focuses on all his failures, you only have to focus on what he was successful at. However, I find it interesting about Tesla, especially mentioning Tesla , because the idea is that you don't want to play Tesla stock down.
If we've learned anything about Tesla, it's that you shouldn't play Tesla shares down. But if you go and look at Tesla stock, it's actually going down. This is in one year. So, they grew by 911% in a year. But if we take the figures from the beginning of the year, that is, from January of this year, they actually fell by 29, almost 30%, and in half a year they fell by about the same amount .
Uh, they fell again by almost 30%. They fell by 18% in a month. It fell 20% in 5 days, and 4% in one day, but it does what it does. One important point to understand here is: if you had bet on Tesla stock going down over the past 6 months, you would have made a pretty good profit, right? But there is a belief, a narrative, a story that you should never play against Tesla unless you are going to make a lot of money playing against Tesla.
And this is where things get really weird, right? So, we have SpaceX. SpaceX is a failed company. Nothing makes sense at SpaceX , does it? The idea that it should be a multi-trillion dollar company because of its AI that no one the hell wants to use, because of its space data centers, which is essentially sending a rack of servers into space, because it owns Twitter, and again, the space launch capabilities are impressive, but that's also the level of revenue that OnlyFans makes, right?
When you look at SpaceX, it's a failure on many levels. And that's probably why there's this connection in the attempt to merge Tesla and SpaceX. This is what they are trying to sell us now, saying, oh, I hate 2026. I said, did I tell you, you may not know this, but I actually hate the year 2026 with a passion.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk on Wednesday left the door open for a merger of the electric car maker with his other company, SpaceX, which is valued at more than a trillion dollars, refusing to rule out the possibility and citing the companies' growing overlap. And this is one of the big problems we see in Elon Musk's companies.
One of the things you hear from people is: well, you know, Elon Musk is doing something. Well, here's the thing. You don't invest in Elon Musk. You invest in Tesla. You invest in SpaceX. Maybe you're a very rich person who invested in Twitter or something. But these are separate companies. These are individual companies and separate legal entities.
And one of the big problems that's happening is that he's trying to connect these companies in strange ways. For example, one of the main topics around Tesla, right? Tesla is not a car company. This is not an energy company . Apparently, it's an AI company. I mean, I don't know what she is today, right?
So today it's like an AI and robotics company. But one of the strange things is how Elon Musk literally forced Tesla to give up the GPUs it already had. She already bought them, right? I gave them to XAI a year or two ago, right? And it 's important to understand: these are two completely different corporations, but one is simply transferring assets because that's what Elon Musk wants, right?
They're talking about this with Tesla now, right? Tesla is supposed to be an AI company. I mean, just think about it for a second. Tesla is supposed to be an artificial intelligence company, and it rents services from Grock. So, one AI company rents services from another AI company. Does this give you confidence in the value of Tesla's AI?
I guess even with the Optimus robots—that's what just blew me away. Even with the Optimus robots, they're talking about essentially having the Optimus robots rent AI capabilities from SpaceX or XAI, or whatever it's called now. Now get this: Elon Musk literally said a couple of years ago that car manufacturing essentially has no value.
This leads to bankruptcy. The only way for Tesla to be successful is, essentially, artificial intelligence, right? That was his argument. Whatever was there. And now you see Tesla increasingly tying itself up by buying artificial intelligence from other Elon Musk corporations, which effectively means Tesla is creating all these things that are essentially worthless.
And I think if you actually had a board of directors that wasn't controlled and under the thumb of that damn CEO, you'd think they could do something about it . that this is a very bad idea. But instead, they seem to be tying everything together more and more . Terra fab, which is coming out—it will be a partnership between SpaceX and Tesla.
Who owns this partnership and how much? I guess , I guess it will depend on what Elon Musk wants that particular day. Let's take a look at this. Um, as you can tell from the many collaborations, quote: " As you can tell from the many collaborations on many fronts with SpaceX, there's more and more overlap ," Musk said during Tesla's report, quote: "We can't talk about mergers and things like that on an earnings call ." He says, quote: "This should be done in accordance with due process ." So, somehow, you know, they throw it at people, a kind of bait.
Hey, hey, what if SpaceX and Tesla merge? Gene Munster, managing partner of Tesla investor Deepwater Asset Management, said that after the conversation he was even more convinced that the companies were destined to merge within the next few years. Quote : "Today I would rate the probability of these two getting together at 90%." In a video posted on social media, he said: "If you had asked me yesterday, I would have said 80%." Tesla already supplies batteries and manufacturing technology for some SpaceX projects, and the companies are jointly developing Terrafab, a semiconductor manufacturing facility designed to produce AI chips.
Supporters argue that combining the companies could simplify Musk's corporate empire and create a more integrated company spanning artificial intelligence, robotics, manufacturing, energy and space infrastructure. A JP Morgan analyst said this month that, quote, “the operational integration between the two entities is already deep,” citing shared engineering talent, AI infrastructure, Terrafab, and Musk’s leadership as factors that, quote, “ will facilitate an eventual merger.” So, apparently, this is exactly what awaits us.
Who even knows what will actually happen? Again, this is 2026 . Sometimes, sometimes, crazy things happen. Sometimes crazy things happen in 2026, but not very often. But it seems that this is exactly the path they are taking. This merger between SpaceX and Tesla has been talked about for quite some time.
Um, you know, considering Elon Musk, considering he has his little cult following around him. I would say it's almost certain. This will happen sometime in the future. But the interesting question is: what is the value proposition of this? Is n't that right? If you look at SpaceX, SpaceX is a complete and utter disaster in terms of company valuation.
And if you look at Tesla, the real question arises: what is its future? Whatever her past, what, what future does she have, huh ? If you, if you look at Tesla's stock price, right? From its high, if you go back to its high, the high was 485. We dropped to 307. It literally lost a third of its value from its high.
And the interesting thing is that whenever you talk about Tesla's valuation, everyone likes to look at this same " hockey stick." So , going back to 2019, it was worth $16 per share. So, by 2021, the price had risen to $371 per share. That is, it has increased by a huge amount. But what's interesting is that if you look at Tesla's five-year chart, you can see that the valuation is becoming a little more stable.
Here , back in 2021, it was worth $214 per share. So, it has grown by about 30% since then. But if you look at their high, it was $47 per share. So it's literally $100 less now than it was five years ago. One of the problems with all this stock price stuff is that it depends on specific days. But it 's important to understand that if you look at this, the stock has been trading in a range for about 5 years now, right?
Again, if we go back to the highs, we see a nice " hockey growth" from 2013 to 2017. But if you look at the five-year or one-year chart, you can see that the price has started to trade in a fairly stable range. And if you look at it, Elon Musk himself said that there is no value in cars, right? Tesla electric cars are worthless on their own, right?
It all comes down to artificial intelligence. But what we see from Tesla suggests that they are essentially outsourcing their AI to companies like X.AI or others. So there's a very big question about what the value of artificial intelligence is for Tesla. Besides, the main attraction should be those Optimus robots, right?
The idea that Optimus robots are a $20 trillion market, and all that stuff. And the thing about humanoid robots is, even if you believe this argument, which I do n't, but even if you do, there's a lot of competition in this field , right? Regarding electric vehicles, you have to understand that in the United States, there was extremely little competition.
Even in 2026, they had no competition during the first decade of their existence. No real competition. And even now, as I've said many times, I prefer Ford cars, right? I have a Ford Escape plug-in hybrid. I just adore him . And if Ford really focused on making electric cars, I would buy a Ford electric car in a heartbeat.
I just love the build quality, the finish, and everything else. I like the Mustang Mach-E and other models. But the thing is, even Ford is backing down, right? American companies that were producing electric cars, even for 2026, are scaling back their ambitions for electric vehicles. So, Tesla still has a huge advantage and doesn't really have any real competition in the United States.
If you look at things like humanoid robots , damn it, there's a lot of competition. Everyone is competing in the field of humanoid robots. Listen, Mark, damn Mark Zuckerberg, for God's sake, is trying to build humanoid robots. So, if you look at this, I mean, the big question is: What is Tesla's future valuation going to be, right?
Past performance doesn't guarantee future returns or anything like that, right? And it will be interesting to watch as SpaceX's financial viability becomes increasingly questionable and Tesla, rightly so, slows down, as Tesla slows down and falls . If you merge these two companies, you merge a financially unviable trillion dollar company with a trillion dollar company that's stalling , to create what are you creating there?
What are you creating? So, whatever , what do you think about it? What do you think about a possible Tesla and SpaceX merger? What do you think about how Elon Musk is luring people with this little bait? Do you think this is a smart idea? What do you think about betting against Elon Musk? What do you think about the betting myth against Elon Musk?
Although it has been proven many, many, many, many, many times that betting against Elon Musk can actually be quite profitable. For some reason, mythology says: never go against Elon Musk. I do n't know. Share your thoughts below. If you like these videos, don't forget they're on Spotify and Apple Podcast. Link below. If you want to follow me on LinkedIn, the link is also below.
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