저자: JeffreyGundlach · 외국인
요약 보기
연준은 금리를 인하할 가능성이 크지만 인플레 개선이 아닌 유동성 문제 때문일 것이며, 연말까지 시장 기대(2.5회)보다 적은 인하를 예상. 미국 예외주의 트레이드는 모멘텀 트레이드에 불과해 자금이 유럽 등으로 빠질 수 있고, 달러는 다음 경기침체 때 하락 압력을 받을 것. 유럽이 미국을 3년간 상회했고, 미국 밸류에이션은 Nifty50·닷컴 버블 때보다 높아 과열 상태라고 진단. 분산투자와 인도 장기 보유를 언급.
다듬은 글
I've I our last time we spoke I said I think they'll cut twice. The market has been pricing in much more than that almost all the way through this year. We've we've had times where there were five cuts priced in. I think now it's at two and a half over the next, you know, we've only got little more than half a year going here.
Not that many more meetings. I I do think they'll they'll cut rates, but I don't think it's going to be because of of much better inflation data because I don't think it's going to get much better. Uh I I I I doubt it's the unemployment rate is going to be a a shocker in in the near term, like in the next few months, but I I do think they'll cut rates uh because of some illquidity problems may may come up.
So, I do think they'll probably cut rates by year end. And I still think it's probably less than the market thinks, but I'm closer to the market now cuz I've stayed at two and the market has gone from five or six down to 2 and a half. But you sort of are answering the question of the moment as well.
One that JPAL can't really answer, doesn't want to now. um when you talk about the unemployment rate getting worse that that is the side of the mandate that the Fed is going to lean to first. Yeah, that would be my guess that they're likely to get worried about the unemployment rate more than worried about the inflation rate.
Although J Paul did say something really interesting that I don't know if anybody heard him say because he only said it once. He called, he said, "We'll have to see if an inflation increase is a one-time increase." Which to me makes it sound like he thinks that's possible from the tariffs. What else would we be talking about?
No, he's talking about that because he's made that case before that that their sort of base assumption is you get these one-time increases, but we're not talking about something that just goes on, you know, forever as a result of these tariffs. These tariff policy could be rolled back in in anybody's guess.
Well, we haven't even seen what it is yet, let alone what what to be rolled back. It keeps changing all the time. Um, but he's going to put tariffs on, and I think he's going to be I I I don't think he's going to get worried about the market that much. I think I think Trump cares much more about taking whatever pain he needs to take now rather than seven eight months from now when it's staring down the barrel of the midterms where economic fallout could have really serious consequences for the Republican party.
It's kind of like when Reagan came in. I don't know if Reagan really did anything but Vulkar did it to him and you know the inflation rate was so high and the economy went into that recession that really lasted about three years. It's officially two recessions. They claimed there was a respit in the early 80s but it's really I lived through it.
It was really one recession. Reagan took took the pain. People thought he had no chance of winning re-election and then he won in a massive landslide uh come come the the next one. Now, Trump doesn't have that two extra years cuz he can't run again, but he needs to he needs the Congress to be uh tilting Republican and get anything done in the second half of his term.
What do you make of the questioning of the so-called American exceptionalism trade which really came to the forefront as we went through that episode where bond yields had backed up dramatically in a really short period of time and a notion that what was to be you know the safe haven place to be for money investors here but globally maybe not so much and the dollar plays into that story too.
What's your take? I I think the so-called American exceptionalism trade is really nothing more than a momentum trade observing that money has poured into the United States from overseas over the past say 18 years the the net investment position in the United States was negative $3 trillion 18 years ago.
It means that foreigners had three trillion more invested in the US than we had invested in them. That number has grown up to by one measure 28 trillion. So it's increased by 25 trillion in 18 years. That's that's a trillion almost a trillion and a half a trillion and a half per year. And given the the tensions that are going on now, and given that Europe is outperforming, which I've talked about as being a really good trade, that's that's doing great for dollar-based investors this year.
I think that the momentum trade may start to unwind and money may come out of the United States and go into Europe who has to think about their own defense now as to re-industrialize in Germany. Uh maybe some maybe South Korea, other other people that we put tariffs on. Uh I think the money it would it's quite possible that say I don't know let's just pick a number 5 trillion 8 trillion 10 trillion could go out of the United States.
they might be repatriated to other countries. That's a huge selling. One of the reasons US has outperformed is it's been a momentum trade. But Europe is now outperformed US since we bought uh Europe selling the S&P back in 2022. Europe's outperformed for the last 3 years uh for dollar-based investors.
So I I think I I keep uh recommending that investors think about the dollar in my opinion will go down as the economy weakens. Everyone says that's nuts because they have experience. say, so when there's a recession, the dollar goes up and bond yield goes down. That's not happening now. The Fed was encouraged to ease interest rates because for whatever reason by 100 basis points, I think the 2-year was yelling at them that they were too high, but yet the dollar is down since then and you know and and and and uh bond yields are up since then.
So I think the dollar is going to be under pressure in the next recession and that's going to be a real reason for investors to think about more diversified investing. I've talked about having much less weight in the United States than in Europe and of course I always like India as a very long-term hold for my own money.
uh but I I think I think that's going to you know uh be a trend that lasts because the trend for the dollar momentum lasted so long so powerful the valuation if you look at US S&P US stocks and all the rest of the world XUS so the whole rest of the the world stock market just compared to the US there were two periods that were considered to be absurdly overvalued in the United States the highest period was in the early 70s called the Nifty50 and it it it was at it had gone up about 100% versus the rest of the world.
The second one was in the dotcom situation in 1999 which wasn't as egregious as as the Nifty50. But now the valuation that after this long move of so-called US exceptionalism this this valuation is double what the Nifty50 was versus is overvalued. People thought this is nuts that the Nift 350 market was so high versus the rest of the world.
We're twice as high and already rolled over. So, this is this is an interesting time period for people to pull the trigger on on some of these longer term themes that are starting to starting to actually reveal themselves in real
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