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peter schiff the market has already crashed hyperinflation is coming be prepared for the worst the investment advisor who accurately predicted the crash of 2008 is once again sounding the alarm this time around peter schiff the chief executive officer of euro-pacific capital who memorably predicted the collapse of the housing market in 2008 and the global financial crisis of 2010 is speaking out against the federal reserve which he claims has inflated the prices of stocks and bonds with its ultra ultra-loose unconventional monetary policies today we're going to talk all about peter schiff and his warning about the upcoming market crash s schiff was right about the housing market's myriad flaws in 2006.
but his predictions about the fall of the dollar hyperinflation the collapse of the u.s economy and global economic decoupling remain unfulfilled contrary to his theory the dollar has strengthened against other currencies as the rest of the world most notably europe has seen faltering growth here's a montage of some of ship's more prescient moments in and around 2006 just a year before the real estate implosion tore a gaping hole in the global economy being mocked by a string of pundits schiff has been one of the most vocal bears and fed critics his book the real crash america's coming bankruptcy how to save yourself and your country was published two years ago shift's been prophesying economic armageddon for a while now and as the old saying goes even a broken watch is right twice a day to be sure schiff isn't alone in this criticism of the fed guys like jeremy grantham co-founder and chief investment strategist of grantham mayo van otterlu said in a quarterly newsletter released on monday that the stock market is headed in the right direction for a crash opponents of the central bank's easy money policies like schiff over the years have warned that the billions of dollars worth of liquidity injected into the financial system would eventually create inflation they also warned that stock prices inflated by the liquidity would fall dramatically once the program ended but besides a brief october scare u.s stocks have been on a monster tear notching new records on a regular basis on tuesday the s p 500 spx which is up 0.64 percent registered its 43rd record close for 2014 closing at 2051 while inflation has been trending dangerously lower that sensational and rapid run up may alone be sufficient reason to harbor concerns about what's fueling the market's run a super low interest rate environment has forced investors into a stock hungry frenzy where else are investors going to go for yield bulls argue that there have been clear signals the us market is on much healthier footing than the rest of the global economies notably europe and asia confidence in the u.s market has resulted in the dollar rising about 11 percent since early may against a basket of rival currencies schiff points to gold as his safe harbor investment his theory is that the dollar will plunge and gold will skyrocket once the market realizes stocks are overheated gold prices will go ballistic once people realize that the dollar is overvalued schiff said forecasting that the value of the currency will fall by 90 it's entirely possible gold could get pricey what's difficult to imagine is the depreciation of the dollar or a jump in inflation on the scale shift envisions schiff believes that the dollar will tank because of too much fed intervention he predicts it will begin qe4 at the first sign of serious weakness in the stock market or the economy which would lead to a loss of confidence in the fed and by association the greenback the s p 500's correlation with the fed's balance sheet is presented as evidence of impending doom ethan harris a global economist at bank of america merrill lynch has a problem with schiff's view and the assumptions tied to the fed balance sheet chart often used to support the idea of tenuousness of the market implicitly this chart assumes that the markets are not forward-looking and it's the implementation of qe that drives the stock market when the fed buys the market booms and when it stops the market swoons harris thinks this relationship is a classic case of spurious correlation anything that trended higher over the last five years has a 90 plus correlation with the fed's balance sheet he further comments that qe is far from over as the fed is not going to shrink its balance sheet for a very long time asked about the risks of inflation harris dismissed it people confuse bank reserves with money until banks start lending their reserves those funds are not going to enter the economy and even when they start lending there's no automatic link and the process is gradual investors are still voting with their wallets however gold prices fell more than 28 last year and are slightly down this year this chart shows the ratio of gold to the s p 500 the current ratio indicates that investors are confident about the us dollar and the stock market compare this period's levels with the heady levels of 2000 when stocks were clearly in bubble territory history lacks precedence for what happens when the fed keeps rates at near zero for so long and holds trillions of dollars on its balance sheet so some serious rockiness is a given however shift paints an apocalyptic picture while stock markets can and will at some point correct and maybe even crash hyperinflation in the u.s is unlikely the fed knows exactly how to fight inflation it's the deflation that leaves the fed and other central bankers grasping at straws at this point the fed would welcome 2 percent plus inflation to ensure the economy is growing and has positive momentum in the world of currencies it's a zero-sum game the dollar rises or falls against another currency for it to devalue by 90 other currencies would have to strengthen by an equal amount for that to happen another economy would have to step up and serve as the reserve currency of the world as the us does now it's important to note that schiff was right about the last crash but wrong about the impact on u.s currencies they rallied as the rest of the global economy buckled and right now his feelings about the dollar couldn't be further from the reality the dollar continues to reach new multi-year highs against its major rivals and most analysts expect it to strengthen through 2015.
when it comes to playing defense there's one recession-proof sector that shouldn't be overlooked agriculture it's simple whatever happens people still need to eat schiff doesn't talk about agriculture as much as precious metals but the fifth largest holding of euro-pacific is fertilizer producer nutrient as one of the world's largest providers of crop inputs and services nutrient is positioned solidly even if the economy enters a major downturn its shares are already up about 39 in 2021 another way to play the agricultural boom is to invest in u.s farmland farmland could be an effective hedge because it's intrinsically valuable and has little correlation with the ups and downs of the stock market the ncreif farmland total return index has increased more than 5 times over the last 15 years 10 times over the past 20 years and 20 times over the past 30 years the best part you don't need to get your hands dirty to get a piece of the action new platforms allow you to invest in u.s farmland by taking a stake in the farm of your choice you'll earn cash income from the leasing fees and crop sales and of course you'll benefit from any long-term appreciation on top of that ] so so you
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