저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 진행자는 AMD와 엔비디아 모두 현재 하락 추세라 매수 시점이 아니라고 판단함. 기사 해석: 기사 작성자 John Balor는 2018년 암호화폐 폭락으로 두 회사가 타격을 입었지만 시장 약세를 매수 기회로 봐야 한다고 주장하고, 재무 측면에서는 엔비디아가 우위(현금흐름·배당·자본환원)라며 엔비디아를 더 나은 매수 대상으로 제시함. 기사 주장에 대한 비판: 진행자는 '하락 중 매수(buying the dip)'는 바닥을 모르는 상태에서 위험하다며 기사 내용이 독자를 오도할 수 있다고 지적함. 재무 및 성장 전망: 엔비디아는 현금과 배당 측면에서 AMD보다 우위에 있고, AMD는 부채가 현금보다 많다고 언급함. 애널리스트 예상으로 AMD는 2019년 주당순이익 약 63센트(약 37% 성장)를 예상하지만 인텔·엔비디아와의 경쟁으로 감소 가능성이 있다고 봄. 장기 이익 성장률은 AMD 연 5.6%, 엔비디아 연 15%로 제시됨. AMD 차트 분석: 월봉·주봉 모두 약세이며 약 24달러 부근 저항 후 되밀림. 18달러 지지 여부가 관건이며 15달러, 장기적으로 10달러가 지지 구간으로 언급됨. 상승 가능성은 낮다고 봄. 엔비디아 차트 분석: 최근 두 달간 급락 추세이며 140달러 지지선 유지 여부가 핵심. 140달러가 무너지면 120달러, 100달러가 다음 지지로 언급됨. 140달러 유지 시 160~180달러 반등 가능성을 열어둠. 리스크/조건: 두 종목 모두 하락 추세가 끝났다는 확인(바닥 확인)이 있어야 매수 국면이 온다고 보며, 현재는 그렇지 않다고 판단함. 출연자 전망: 두 종목 모두 약세 지속 가능성이 높고, 최선의 경우 지지선 위에서 횡보할 것으로 봄. 엔비디아가 기사 작성자 주장대로 더 나은 매수인지는 차트상 아직 매수 시점이 아니라고 결론.
다듬은 글
Welcome everyone to HueFin News. Today is December 17th, 2018, and this is the home of price prediction and all the news according to the chart. Today we're going to talk about whether AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) or NVIDIA is the better buy. We'll look at an article about these two microchip stocks, then at the price charts, to see which one is a better buy in my opinion, in our opinion, and in the opinion of this article.
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Today we're talking about an article written by John Balor, who apparently works for the Motley Fool. It was uploaded two days ago, December 15th, 2018. He gives credentials for AMD and NVIDIA and argues which one would be the better buy considering the many other factors each company has. For our part, we'll just look at the price chart. That saves you a lot of time, without doing much fundamental analysis. Those things are almost pointless for investing, day trading, swing trading, whatever you do, even long-term investing. Once you boil everything down, the only thing that matters in the financial market is how much someone is willing to pay for a share or a stock. It has always been about supply and demand, not fundamentals. A company's earnings, revenue, cash flow, whether a country is viable, whether one company is stronger or weaker than another, all of that can be dispelled. From an investing standpoint, it always comes back to supply and demand: how much are you willing to pay for a share? And once a stock reaches a certain price level where demand has been erased, the price falls.
So let's see what John says about AMD and NVIDIA, and then go into our analysis using only the price chart, and tell you whether either one is a buy, or whether neither one is.
Some of the points John highlights: he opens by saying both companies had a very hard 2018 because of the cryptocurrency collapse. Many cryptocurrency miners have shut down, since many of these coins lost 85 to 90 percent of their value over 2018. He says the graphics cards miners used to mine cryptocurrencies had padded these companies' revenue growth earlier in 2018. He then writes that investors should view the recent market weakness as a buying opportunity, since there are still things to like about both AMD and NVIDIA for the long term.
I'm confused by that statement. He calls it a buying opportunity for both AMD and NVIDIA, yet he's asking which one is the better buy. That doesn't make sense together. And why would you tell someone to buy a particular stock when you haven't found the bottom? That goes with the popular idea of "buying the dip." Buying the dip isn't a feasible or knowledgeable approach, because you don't know when the dip will stop. That statement really needs correcting, or should be removed from the article, because it can mislead readers into thinking this is the perfect time to come in and buy.
Looking at the financial strength of AMD and NVIDIA, John says NVIDIA is the winner. I won't deny that. You can see from the data he pulled that NVIDIA has more cash flow and more cash to pay down debt and give dividends to investors, while AMD has more debt than cash on its books. So yes, NVIDIA is clearly the stronger company in financial fortitude, and it should be able to endure much more hardship if these chipmakers keep moving to the downside.
On capital returns, AMD doesn't offer a dividend, but NVIDIA does. So John gives NVIDIA the edge there too, which is very positive for NVIDIA. So far AMD hasn't won either of these categories.
Now the growth expectations. All of this is hypothetical and estimated, so it can change as time plays out. Analysts expect AMD to end 2018 with a mid-single-digit share of the server market but to reach double digits by 2020. They also expect AMD to report around 63 cents per share in earnings for 2019, a 37 percent increase from 2018. But AMD is fighting powerful battles against two large rivals, Intel and NVIDIA, so that 37 percent estimated growth could be somewhat diminished given the formidable players it has to contend with. Analysts currently expect AMD's earnings to grow only 0.56 percent annually over the next five years, while they expect NVIDIA to improve earnings by 15 percent annually over the same period. So NVIDIA clearly takes first place in that valuation area.
To summarize the article: John concludes NVIDIA is the better buy. These articles always include phrases like "the future is always uncertain, especially in a highly competitive chip industry." He still maintains that NVIDIA's capital returns and consistent profitability are the key differences between NVIDIA and AMD. With the stock down 46 percent over the past three months, he says this looks like a particularly opportune time to consider buying shares of the leading graphics card provider, NVIDIA. So he's already telling you NVIDIA is the better buy. We'll check the price charts to see whether that holds up, and whether either stock is a good buying opportunity.
Looking at AMD first, the monthly chart is currently moving down about 2.9 percent, almost 3 percent, today. The weekly chart still shows weakness in AMD. The market isn't telling us this is a buying opportunity. We still have about 13 trading days left before the month ends, and the weakness is still present on the weekly chart. On the weekly basis, we're still noticing minor weakness; the market is holding consolidation. We came up to around $24 during the week of December 3rd, but we're still showing that the market is weak. We don't have much stop power left from last week, so it's still telling us AMD is a weak stock, and we're not seeing an upside move forming. It might come back down to $18. If decreasing sales in graphics cards and the chipmaker business continue, the $15 level is still the area AMD needs to hold for support. Looking further into 2019, which is a very long time, $10 could be another longer-term support area for AMD. But overall, I don't see this stock trying to move up right now. So according to the price charts, AMD is not a buy.
Looking at NVIDIA, the monthly chart shows this stock has had a very drastic downtrend over the last two months, and it's still ongoing. The market is trying to hold the $140 level as support. It's trying to do so again for December, and it did it last month in November, so $140 is a very strong support area. We'd need to see buyers come into the market at that $140 price. If we break below $140 in the near term, then $120, maybe even $100, becomes the support area for NVIDIA.
The weakness is reflected in NVIDIA too. The weekly chart shows the market isn't eager to move up for NVIDIA either. So both stocks are indicating more weakness ahead. Like AMD, NVIDIA has to hold $140. If that holds, NVIDIA should bounce from there and we should see an upside move. How high it goes is still undetermined; it might hit $160, or even back up to $180, if the overall uncertainty in the stock market becomes more definitive and gives us a path forward on the many issues analysts and experts don't know how to handle.
Looking at the daily chart, the market is still showing weakness here, holding consolidation at $140. That's essentially NVIDIA's last gasp: it needs to hold $140. If it can, I'll be looking for NVIDIA to move up, but that's yet to be seen.
So NVIDIA is weak, AMD is weak. NVIDIA has to hold $140 and AMD has to hold $18 for either to move up, but both stocks are still trending down and still show weakness. According to the price charts, neither stock is a buy. John thinks NVIDIA is the better buy, but from these two charts, neither one is a buy right now. Both stocks are still in a downtrend. The better-buy scenario should only come into play once the bottom is found, and that isn't here yet. Expect both stocks to keep showing weakness and move lower, at best holding consolidation, as long as AMD stays above $18 and NVIDIA stays above $140. That's what you should watch for on these two stocks.
It's really simple once you understand what you're looking at on the price chart, rather than trying to work out fundamentals the way John does in this article, which takes too much time to decide which is the better buy. The price chart already contains everyone's expectations of what the stock will do. John, the other analysts, and the experts have all already placed their bets, and the price chart shows where those bets sit. If you can see the overall bet, you can profit from it too. That's what we're here to show you across stocks, cryptocurrencies, forex, and commodities. As long as we have a price chart, starting with bars and volume, we can determine whether an instrument is a good buy.
That's our analysis. We've given you our perspective on what the price chart is reading. We'd really like to hear your opinions on which of these two graphics chipmakers is the better buy. Do you think AMD, NVIDIA, or neither? Give us your opinions in the comments, and make sure you
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