저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 레이 달리오 신간에서 뽑은 투자 팁 25개를 소개하며, 버블·신용사이클·금리·신흥국 관점에서 위기 대응 원칙을 강조하는 영상이다. 1) 사전 행동계획: 최선·최악 시나리오별 대응을 미리 정해두면 감정 개입 없이 투자할 수 있다. 2) 외화부채 리스크: 외화 부채가 많은 기업·국가는 통화가치 하락과 금리 급등으로 위기에 취약하다. 3) 자기강화 사이클: 버블 생성→붕괴→침체 사이클이 반복된다. 적극적 투자자라면 사이클을 활용할 수 있고, 아니면 분산투자가 낫다. 4) 인플레/디플레 위험: 거주 지역과 경제 상황에 따라 포트폴리오 비중을 달리해야 한다. 5) 버블 형성: 저금리가 자산가격 상승을 부추기고, 자사주매입·레버리지·그림자금융이 버블을 키운다. 버블 정점에서 시장 낙관이 가장 높다. 6) 컨센서스는 이미 가격에 반영: 대중과 반대로 움직여야 한다는 원칙이다. 7) 중앙은행은 늦다: 버블은 경제 일부에서만 생기므로 통화정책만으로 관리가 어렵다. 긴축 속도가 가장 빠른 시점은 주식시장 고점 약 5개월 전이다. 8) 위기 시 자산 방어: 금·부동산·원자재 등 실물자산 보유가 도움이 된다. 9) 평균 맹신 경계: 시장 평균은 개별 자산과 크게 다를 수 있다. 10) 너무 좋아 보이면 고점일 가능성: 과도한 낙관은 경계 신호다. 11) 수익률곡선: 단기금리가 장기금리 위로 올라 역전되면 대출 유인이 줄고 침체 씨앗이 뿌려진다. 12) 돈의 생성·소멸: 부채로 돈이 생기고, 연쇄 부도 시 빠르게 사라지므로 현금의 가치가 커진다. 13) 정책 당국은 느리고, 위기 후 수년간 고통이 지속된 뒤에야 대응한다. 14) 금 헤지: 위기 시 금 가격 상승을 헤지 수단으로 고려할 수 있다. 15) 금리와 자산가격: 저금리는 자산가격 상승, 고금리는 하락 요인이다. 16) 신흥국: 아무도 원하지 않을 때 싸게 사고, 과열 시 파는 것이 원칙이다. 환율 평가절하 국면이 매수 기회가 될 수 있으나 하이퍼인플레(베네수엘라 사례) 위험도 있다. 17) 17번째 팁 이후: 원칙을 이해하지 못했다면 분산된 주식·채권 중심 올웨더 포트폴리오가 적합하다. 18) 타이밍 시도 시 군중과 반대로 움직일 준비가 필요하다. 발표자는 장기 분산투자와 리스크 측정 학습을 강조하며, 자신의 유료 리서치 플랫폼과 모델 포트폴리오(올웨더+알파)를 안내한다. 구체적 종목 방향성 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
good day fellow investors by reading ray de leus latest book I gathered 25 investing tips from his book he's more focused about the economy how to manage crisis but underneath it all he is an investor he's a hedge fund manager and his goal is to make money in those environments and by having a similar investing approach to what he said I derived 25 investing tips from his book so let's go through them and I really believe the 25 tips will give you enormous value in your long-term investing career so the first one know ahead how you will react with your portfolio with your portal portfolio actions no matter what happens if we read through the book Ray Dalio says we used our understanding to build computer decision-making systems that laid out in detail exactly how we'd react to virtually every possible occurrence so he already knows ahead of times what he will do if something happens and that's something crucial for us investors to do so worst case scenario what do I do best case scenario what do I do and that makes investing unemotional easy and when it is unemotional when it is easy when it's programmed you don't do stupid things which is something that Munger sees at the biggest fault investors usually make number two when you invest across the globe there is always issues with currencies so be careful when investing in companies or countries that have a lot of debt in foreign currencies because those are very volatile and those can really the currency devaluation foreign debt gets difficult to pay interest rates might jump higher and then you have a crisis and you see all those small crises in emerging markets happen very often because of that number three and you by reading the book I have seen a lot of similarities with George Soros s book alchemy of Finance which is all about self reinforcing cycles and that self reinforcing cycle is something that also elaborates on because it's a common recurrence in the economy and of course we all know about the self-reinforcing cycle it starts it the early part goes through a bubble the bubble pops and we get the recession depression however if you're an active investor so I don't know 1/2 percent of the population we should really take advantage but only if you're active if you don't have the time to do that Redell yourself just be well diversified and that's it and keep doing the same things all over time if you are an active I think we can time it we I have timed it the last two cycles so bought low salt I bought low salt hi again and again so if we just follow but when I say timing and this is where a lot of viewers get me wrong I might have started timing into in 2015 and I'm still timing it so it's impossible to time it perfectly but it's possible to time the long-term cycle with more hedges a little bit less overweight on the long side etc etc or different investing style so if we follow those cycles we can see the patterns and we can adjust ourselves our portfolio balance our portfolio accordingly this doesn't mean sell everything this doesn't mean go 100 percent in gold and all those comments that I usually see so please understand about portfolio positioning before doing that and I don't want to encourage that but from the book I get it is possible to do in Ray Dalio does it number 4 think where you live are you at risk of for inflationary or deflationary recession or crisis because that really leads you to a little bit different weights in your portfolio positioning also something to talk about in many new videos I think the bubble you might think it is all great but it's a bubble bubbles usually start as over extrapolations of justified bull markets but low interest rates make investment assets such as stocks and real estate more attractive so they go up so all of that makes companies go more more debt improve balance sheet and SS go up in value net words and spending income levels rise nobody wants to miss out on the action they entered the market fueling the emergence of a bubble there is a new shadow banking system everybody tries to leverage themselves up and a lot of financial engineering takes place place read buybacks the lenders and the speculators make a lot of fast easy money which reinforces the bubble by increasing the speculators equity giving them collateral they need to secure new loans read acquisitions at the time what most people don't think that it is a problem to the contrary they think that what's happening is a reflection and confirmation on the boom as a result of this dynamic all sorts of entities built up long positions borrowing short-term to lend long term taking on liquid liabilities to invest in leak illiquid assets borrowing in one currency and lending in another to pick up the perceived spread and then you have a bubble a self-reinforcing cycle that lasts a few years then a top about a year and then we have the crisis typical cycle so be aware of debt can last longer can last shorter number six the consensus is priced in the market and what will happen is different that what the majority expects in markets when there is a consensus it gets priced in however the future is likely to turn out differently than expected in other words human by nature like most species tend to move in crowds and way recent experience more heavily than is appropriate further bubbles are most likely to occur at the tops in the business cycle balance of payment cycle and long term debt cycle as a bubble nears its top the economy is most vulnerable but people are feeling the wealthiest and the most bullish number 7 always understand that central banks lag behind what's going on while central banks typically do tighten money somewhat and the short rates rise on average when inflation and growth start to get too hot typical monetary policies are not adequate to manage bubbles because bubbles are occurring in some parts of the economy and not in others so keep your mind on individual parts of the economy that can trigger a depression how to take advantage of this all these reverses when the bubble pops and the same linkages that inflated the bubble make the downturn self-reinforcing take advantage of the bubble but also take advantage of the downward trend and you can also wait for that trend because it's really self reinforcing you can well wait for it to start what soulages saying so a lot of questions I get where we can we short something can we short can we short can be short what is the best thing to short now and I get those questions for the past three years now everybody wants to go short every one that went short in the past few years didn't do that well if we look it from a self-reinforcing trend perspective we can wait for the trend to start and then go short and then have a little hedge on what is going on number 8 from a depression-era perspective the reaches the wealthiest buy assets in a crisis buy gold buy real estate buy commodities to protect from their inflationary crisis so always keep in mind have some assets how to spot bubbles a special video coming so don't invest in the top of the bubble because that's not such a smart thing number 10 don't believe in averages averages is everything put together in one pot and that that's the average however there is no average person in the world and there is also no average financial system there is no average stock everything is different so be careful of those market averages because something can be way out of that average and something can be way below so don't focus on the average when you own investing investing also number 11 when things are too good to be true it usually is so and when things are too good to be true usually tops are being made so now it looks like the economy is too good to be true we'll see if it will be top further research is necessary to let's say made the probability's Ray Dalio is always about probabilities and positioning yourself according to the risk reward not about being right he always looks where he is wrong so you might think you're right but always look okay what if I'm wrong and then go back to the first one what do I do if I'm wrong with my portfolio it is about the yield curve typically nearly stages of the top rise in short interest rates narrows or eliminates the spread with long rates lessening the incentive to lend relative to incentive to hold as a result of the Eagle yield curve being flat or inverted less borrowing less collateral etc etc and leads to less lending worse financial condition negative psychology short-term lending in relation to long term less lending less borrowing less growth early in the top some parts of the credit system suffer but others remain robust so it isn't clear that the economy is weakening so while the central bank is still raising interest rates and tightening credit the seeds of the recession are being sown the fastest rate of tightening typically comes about five months prior to the top of the stock market so let's weigh about let's wait about the fastest rate of tightening number 14 don't forget about how money is created and how it disappears so money is created whenever you buy something on that there is more money there is debt that there is credit and so money is created however when part of those cycle of those chain default then money simply disappears asset values go down and everything collaterals disappear and money disappears extremely fast so even if there is abundance it's extremely quickly to turn from about abundance into scarcity so let's think cash is king so what do we have to understand as investors we investors only have to understand how the economic machine works and anticipate what will happen next easy to say hard to do but I think it's possible 16 as I said policy makers are slow policy makers typically failed to recognize the magnitude of the problem initially instead of enacting a number of one of policies that are into to move the needle so as policymakers are slow on the up side to prevent they are slow on the down down side to heal it's only after what is usually a couple of years and a lot of unnecessary economic pain that they finally act decisively number seventeen have a gold head hedge this is the gold price from the average of the crisis that he has been seeing indexed so from the top it goes up to a beautiful deleveraging but by more than one hundred percent so as gold prices go up you might want to think about hedging yourself with a little bit of gold especially now as we are close to the top number eighteen prices can't go much higher so in other words at higher prices and lower expected returns the compensation for taking risk becomes too small to get investors to beat up prices which would drive prospective returns drop down further so at some point in the top it really senses that it's too risky to push prices higher and therefore the sentiment turns and it becomes negative as always nineteen interest rates are key for asset prices low interest rates high asset prices high interest rates low asset prices about emerging markets buy them where they are not wanted and sell them when they are hot when things are good asset prices in local currency plus the currency appreciation are very attractive that plus the country's hot economic activity encourage more foreign inflows and fewer domestic and flow outflows over time the country becomes the hot place to invest and assets become overbought talk about market bubbles emerge investors believe the country's assets are a fabulous treasures to own and that anyone not not in the country is missing out however after the positive the negative comes this is the stock market chart from Croatia from below 1000 points in 2000 2002 when I started investing I sold two thousand six seven two thousand eight it reached about five thousand points in 2009 it was close to 1200 back in the crisis and then it was stable painfully stable over the last 10 years however play currencies in an appropriate way as said by when those are cheap by when nobody wants them because then after the cycle has passed he says he's 1224 months from the bottom nobody looks at those countries nobody wants they're still in pain from the losses of the past and then it's time to buy those things because those currencies are cheaper and those economies will benefit from those currencies this Lee it's also 22 take advantage of the new cycle typically takes a few years for the country to recover however the country when all the monetary policy adjustments are made is back to the early part of the cycle and starts a new motor cycle where productive investments opportunities attract capital keep in mind the risk though because think okay those countries some countries especially emerging markets will go into hyperinflation Venezuela and then you lose everything number 24 if you don't understand this do nothing be happy with diversified stocks bonds we can go to an all-weather portfolio and then simply mechanically adjust according to the risk and you have to learn how to measure the risk that's the key so that's more videos for me to make number 25 if you think you can time the market be ready to go against the crowd that's the key you have to do the opposite of what the crowd does because the consensus is priced in and the consensus is usually wrong over the long term so read as much as you can subscribe to this channel if you want more in-depth research on stocks please check my stock market research platform where you can find what I do and how am i building my portfolio for the long term as we are building a model portfolio that will look like an all-weather plus alpha portfolio thank you for watching looking forward to comments and I'll see you in the next video
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