저자: PeterSchiffvsSteveCortez · 외국인
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2017년 8월 북한 핵탄두 소형화 보도 이후 시장 반응과 트럼프 경제 성과를 두고 두 출연자가 대립. 결론: 시장 전망 자체보다 경제 성과 평가에 대한 정치적 논쟁이 핵심이며, 명시적 자산 가격 예측은 없음. 북한 이슈: 코르테즈는 트럼프가 이전 대통령과 달리 북한 문제를 직접 다룬다고 주장. 쉬프는 다우지수가 사상 최고치 부근이라 지정학 이슈의 영향이 제한적이며, 시장 거품을 정치적 책임 회피 수단으로 쓸 수 있다고 언급. 경제 성과 논쟁: 코르테즈는 규제 철폐(규제 16건 폐지 대 신규 1건)와 기업 실적 개선, 소비자 신뢰 상승을 근거로 경제가 가속화되고 있다고 주장하며 향후 세금 인하 시 실적이 폭발할 것이라 예상. 쉬프는 성장 가속의 증거가 없고, 고용은 저임금 시간제 일자리 중심이며 노동참가율은 여전히 낮다고 반박. 오바마케어 폐지 실패와 사전 질병 보장 유지도 비판. 고용 수치: 7월 20.9만 개 고용을 두고 쉬프는 오바마 시기와 비교해 특별하지 않다고 봄. 코르테즈는 노동참가율과 임금 상승 조짐을 긍정적으로 평가. 달러: 트럼프 취임 이후 달러 약 10% 하락. 쉬프는 이것이 트럼프 정책 효과가 아니라 기대 후퇴 때문이라고 해석. 리스크: 쉬프는 트럼프가 달성하지 못한 성과를 과장하면 지지자 실망으로 되돌아올 것이라고 경고. 재정적자 확대 우려도 언급. 출연자 전망: 쉬프는 경제 성과 주장에 회의적이고 시장 거품 가능성을 제기. 코르테즈는 경제가 가속화되고 있으며 향후 성장이 이어질 것이라고 낙관.
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comments here was the Revelation by The Washington Post that apparently the defense intelligence department has gotten a report that the North Koreans have developed a mini successfully developed a miniature Warhead a nuclear warhead that's not even a warhead it goes right into the missile itself joining me now Peter Schiff europacific Capital CEO and also veteran Market strategist and former Trump campaign operative Steve Cortez uh Steve how serious is this or is it just saber rattling and and lip service on both sides right uh well no it certainly isn't just saber ring on our side I think president Trump clearly means what he says so how serious is it it's an incredibly serious situation and I would say by the way the last two presidents largely just ignored the whole North Korean issue and hoped it would go away thank goodness now we have a real leader who is going to confront them so that we don't have a much worse confrontation down the road uh Peter what do you make of this and the market is responding negatively to it well you know we're at an all-time high in the Dow and we've barely surrendered much uh much of those gains as a result of this I have no idea what to make of it yet I'm just learning about it for the first time as I'm sitting here you know waiting to do the interview but you know maybe it could end up being a good uh a good excuse because you know Donald Trump has made the mistake of putting the Trump brand on this stock market and you know this was a big fat ugly bubble when he was running for office it's bigger and fatter and uglier now and so maybe if the market can start falling and they can blame it on uh on on some military action maybe that'll get them off the hook we originally brought you both on because you were both Trump voters you are both Republicans and yet you now are pretty diametrically opposed on the question of whether president Trump and the economy are doing better than they were uh on from the day they started uh Steve you have a couple of reasons you say absolutely the economy's improved quickly we put the list of them and tell me why you really think this and and more so what's behind it versus just sentiment sure and uh and sentiment certainly is improving and we certainly see that in the stock market but it's not just sentiment it's real tangible earnings growth on the ground and that's primarily what the stock market is discounting what is future what are future earnings worth the main uh reason I think that the economy is accelerating is deregulation this president has already in just a matter of months been so successful at cutting regulations when he came in he established the rule uh president Trump's like a bouncer to overcrowded nightclub he said two have to leave for everyone to get in regarding regulations well we've done quite a bit better than that or team Trump has uh they're now they've eliminated 16 regulations for every new one during the first six months regulatory burden has been an albatross upon our freedom and our growth and that's changing dramatically under President Trump Peter what metrics are you looking at that you now really feel that the economy is nowhere improved at all well I don't see any evidence that growth is accelerating at all under this President I mean I'm I'm glad that he has managed to repeal some regulations it's unfortunate we couldn't get rid of the mother of all regulations Obamacare which he promised to uh to repeal but unfortunately the president said he wanted to preserve uh the ban against pre-existing conditions which is the very essence of Obamacare which is why I was confident yeah but but you say that there are there are lots of jobs you know 209,000 in July what is the problem with that well because while Obama was President we were creating 200,000 jobs a month we had a low unemployment rate under President Obama and president Trump got elected because he rightly criticized those fake numbers he was truthful with the public about the real state of the economy voters knew that the reason the unemployment rate was low was because so many people had left the workforce and Donald Trump mentioned yes we were creating jobs but they were low paying part-time jobs the same thing has happened now we're still creating low paying part-time jobs we still have a very low labor force participation rate nothing has changed and the president looks like a hypocrite to say that everything was awful under and now it's it's basically the same now and all of a sudden it's great that's that's not true that nothing has changed now do we have more work to do absolutely but labor force participation rate is starting to tick up it's let's be fair wages wages are starting to tick up so we're going in the right direction yes hey let me talk Peter let me talk food stamp participation ticking down the trends are going in the right directions and corporate earnings aren't ticking up corporate earnings are exploding once we cut taxes and we will and the dollar now 10% since Trump was inaugurated what is that telling you the dollar the dollar value since Trump was inaugurated but he said he'd weaken the dollar he said it was too high that can't be a surprise but it's not a good thing that it's happening but it's it's not because of what he's done I think the the dollar originally rallied because people were confident that there was going to be some significant change under Trump one of the reasons that the dollar surrendered those gains is because nothing has changed look I the problem with Trump taking credit for victories that he hasn't won is it's going to come back to bite him because he's setting people up for a lot of disappointment a lot of the voters who voted for Trump because they believed what he said are going to be disillusioned when nothing changes it would be better if Trump was honest about how bad the economy still was so that we can actually have some real results instead of taking credit before it's due we we have breaking news but as we run Steve very quickly and very briefly what about that you know we we do have similar numbers from Obama to president Trump it's early it's only 200 days in quickly the biggest difference is is are the intangibles of confidence consumer confidence is soaring that matters it becomes real a virtuous cycle the manufacturer survey at people believe people believe in growth again and that belief can become self-reinforcing once we cut taxes the economy is going to sore we have many hundreds of days to go so there deficits are going to sore when we cut taxes it's great to have voter versus voter Trump voter versus voter great to see you both Peter Schiff and Steve corz you didn't rankly have the bows to put country before passing
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