저자: AlfaMarkets진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
래리 핑크(블랙록 CEO)가 CNBC에서 단기 비트코인 강세를 언급한 것을 소개하며, 반대 시각으로 비트코인 사이클(약 500~530일 상승장, 할빙 후 814일 경과)에 따라 약 3개월 하락 가능성과 실현가격(Realized Price, 약 5.2만 달러) 하회 필요성을 제시. 반면 Clarity Act 통과 기대와 6만 달러 지지대를 근거로 상승 가능성도 병기. 최종 방향은 명확히 제시하지 않고 구독 유도로 마무리.
다듬은 글
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is very bullish on the price of Bitcoin in the short term. He has recently made statements that are perhaps dissonant with what other analysts, perhaps even most analysts, think, who have a more bearish view in the short term, and in this video we are going to analyze both perspectives.
This is perhaps the basis of the view of Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock, who proposes an upward trajectory for the coming months, and the more skeptical, more bearish view, which suggests that Bitcoin still has downward potential in this market. When you finish watching the video, I would love for you to leave a comment with your opinion, with your perspective regarding the trajectory of the price of Bitcoin.
We will read it and give you an answer. Let's now turn to the statements made by Larry Fink on the American financial news television network CNBC. And we saw, as I mentioned in this video that you can find on social media, that leverage in Bitcoin has been cleaned up and that stability has improved.
He then concluded by saying that it is very bullish. [snort] BlackRock's view, or Larry Fink's in this case, contrasts with that more bearish perspective for the price of Bitcoin that we are going to see next. And it is based, I mean the bearish perspective, on two main factors. The first of these is the evolution of Bitcoin's cyclicality.
And it seems that we are observing, at least in the last 10 or 12 years in Bitcoin, that bull markets, and the most recent ones are marked here in blue and green, have a duration, which we see on the X axis, of around 500 days. Note that the Bitcoin highs, both in the black line, which is the current bull market, and the blue line, which is the previous one, as well as the green line, which was the one before this one, lasted about 530 days.
And the bear markets, which follow the bull market, we know that Bitcoin moves in bullish bursts and then corrections, since the corrections last from the halving for about 900 days. According to this perspective, we can quickly perceive how, since 814 days have passed since the halving, the most skeptical, perhaps more bearish view for Bitcoin in the short term, would be based on the fact that this cyclicality would still bring about 100 days, about 3 months, of a downward trajectory, thus coinciding with the duration of the last bear markets.
Now, one can counter-argue and say, hey, Bitcoin is not a deterministic mechanism, which acts like a Swiss watch where it punctually finds a ceiling at one moment and then a floor at another, but rather Bitcoin has a life of its own, right? We could discuss this, and if you're interested, let me know in the comments.
This is the first basis for opposing that view of the Riffin, for thinking that there is still bearish room to move in the price of Bitcoin. The second one, uh, is fundamentally based on on-chain analysis and we have it here at Alfa Bitcoin, on the indicators page, you can find the ultimate floor indicator, which is the realized price.
And what we see in the realized price is that in all Bitcoin corrections, the price has fallen below this level. You can see it here, in 2015, we saw it in 2019, we saw it again in 2022, and watch out, because currently in 2026, the price is above this level, it's right now at about $63,000, uh, maybe a little more, because today it has gone up and the realized price is only at $52, so this analytical perspective also suggests that we still have to fall below the realized price to find a floor.
And I believe that these two are the basis for having a perhaps even slightly more bearish view for the price of Bitcoin in the coming months. Which one is bullish? Well, we can really base the bullish trend first [clears throat] on an economic event that could serve as a catalyst for an upward movement in the coming days, which is the Clarity Act that will give a clearer regulatory regime to the entire cryptocurrency industry and that Trump, as is usual with him, is pushing, saying that if not China will do it first.
In short, whatever the outcome of this bill, if passed, it could have a very bullish effect on the price and could be approved this July with a fairly high probability. And the second bullish factor we see here at Alfa Bitcoin is the Bitcoin price analysis itself . And notice that what we are seeing here is a support zone around $60,000 that is holding.
We are seeing signs of strength, or at least of possible institutional build-up, in this region. This technical analysis, which reveals the actions of major market players, combined with the potential imminent approval of the Clarity Act, could vindicate BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and propel Bitcoin's price in an upward direction.
Here at Alfa Bitcoin we do Bitcoin price analysis for our community members every week. We analyze Bitcoin, as well as stocks and ETFs. Live sessions on Tuesdays and Thursdays where you can receive all the information you need in a very brief and summarized way. In fact, of these two perspectives, the bullish and the bearish, we, the Alfa Bitcoin analyst team, have one, which we have shared through the Alfa Bitcoin community's private Telegram group .
If you want to be part of the community, you can go to alfabitcoin.io in the video description and choose one of the memberships you can subscribe to, either the annual price or the monthly option. And with that, I'll leave you. If you liked the video, don't forget to subscribe, like it, and let me know in the comments what you think the price of Bitcoin is heading in, what direction it seems to be moving.
Comments 0