저자: FinaDom Investing · 외국인
다듬은 글
do you really think this is a generational buying opportunity well i think for the right stocks but because our our viewpoint cover and tech since late 99 in these downturns from what we believe are the names that are going to be able to navigate and valuations that we believe are way oversold so i look at software cyber security i look at names like microsoft you can name it like amazon apple among others that's why to us we're not just gonna sit here and say you paint them all with the same brush it's a bifurcated tape fundamentally when i look at the trends over the next call two three years when i look at the cloud trends i look at semis i look at ai i look at what i believe is a fourth industrial revolution you stress test these numbers look this is fundamentally different the buy side they're already looking now 2023 numbers assume mild recession ahead of the sell side so my point is that numbers here relative i mean if you look at m fang from an ebitda perspective i mean 12 times you're starting to look toward what i go almost be market multiples for what i've used probably the best growth names across tech can you make the argument to me today that apple deserves to be at a 30 pe or does it deserve to be closer to the 17 where it was before the fed put all of the the punch in the bowl okay so that's a good example let's just look at apple yes the services business is a different business today and i believe going forward than it was two years ago so you're talking about an 80 billion dollar revenue stream that basically has been a big part of the re-rating in apple and it's always been my contention apple's a name when you look at it straight pe instead of some of the parts in terms of looking services and hardware you ultimately what i believe is you know undershoot what should be the core valuation so my point here is that i'm not saying the froth the web vans the global crossings what we saw in 2000.com front and center that's not going to happen i'm just saying you have to separate the have and have-nots and valuation here relative to when we go back to 0-809 and even 0-102 relative to growth we view now is the time for the names that we've talked about in our tech playbook totem but is is apple's services business 13 points of valuation better than it was two years ago and and i think when you look at apple services business you look at the growth you look at ultimately the margin on the services piece i think it's something going into the pandemic the market was a v-squared sign now it's worth three four hundred billion and at one point in the pandemic we're looking at 1.5 trillion so i think a big difference with some of these names i'd argue the same with amazon some of the parts what's the cloud business worth with google i'd argue right here you're assigning minimal growth and minimal evaluation to the cloud you stress test numbers on the other side of this get every bare argument out there but it just comes down to like scott we've talked to 25 of our checks this week cios you know product manager trying to understand spending yeah stress test these areas it's firm and that's why we'll cut you'll see numbers get cut because the street will ultimately assume a mile recession i fully expect you to show up here and pound the table on apple and tell me all the reasons why it's great and everybody should buy it and right now the market doesn't necessarily care about all those reasons so why should we look i mean we've done checks over the last week and and we were ready to cut numbers if we thought coming out of the supply chain we saw that zero covert really having a massive negative impact instead it's the opposite i actually think right now tracking slightly ahead i think from a demand perspective what we're seeing on services what we're seeing on iphones much better than expectations and it comes down to streets baking in you're going to see numbers cut we think the opposite that's why i know when we look at apple here i view it as a table pound the risk reward and i think based on checks further bullish uh based on this name i mean you you come on i know you always criticize what you call the haters right when people try and come out and talk negatively about the stock but the stock does seem to have uh an issue lately that all of those fundamentals are being ignored tell me why there's no reason that the stock could go from 137 where it is right now down to say 125.
why couldn't it go there if market sentiment remains as uneven as unsettled as it currently is look i'm not saying that we can't go up but my fundamental issue is the services business that's the game changer that's why i believe ultimately we look out six nine months mount 12 we're gonna have a stock with the chewin front in other words i believe services is the key change in apple and the other thing the iphone demand story you got 25 percent that have still not upgraded their iphone in three and a half years that's the install based story and like we said right now many yelling fire in a crowded theater we did checks ready to cut numbers instead it's actually maybe even slightly better all right so let's pivot to tesla a new nine-month low for that stock which talk about you know getting beaten up lately it's it's an obvious understatement has your view on tesla changed uh in any way there are some who suggest that this is the last of the so-called meme stocks if you want to put this in that basket uh that roll that are rolling over right now as we speak yeah well look we cut our price target this week from 1400 to a thousand still bullish you know in terms of the long-term story but but it was a cop because look fundamentally based on our checks in what we're doing in asia in terms of china i think it's going to be a delivery miss we want to impact in terms of what that's going to be in the quarter still bullish on the longer term story in tesla but let's just be clear the twitter circus show what we've seen coming out of us combined with what we see especially in the xero code in china can't wear the rose colored glasses we had to cut the price target and and that was really where we came out you've said before that musk accounts for what like this drama accounts for like 100 bucks something like that is that is that right i think it's increasing in terms of what that overhang has become because because of the worries that if tesla stock keeps going down what that can mean in terms of a margin call does he have to ultimately put up more stock that's why this circus show is basically turned into a category 5 hurricane how much of your price target cut was due to concerns you have about china and then how much legitimately were due to this ongoing soap opera with musk all because of china when we actually look at the must situation i still think that you know a lot of that started to get baked into the name but as we see today it starts to cascade and at the end of the day you know it's been a black eye for musk and at a time you need him to navigate the storm you want to see him on twitter just focused on twitter rather than on tesla in terms of what was in the supply chain so playing off of both of these stocks uh which have huge weightings in like say the nas 100 for example there are some who say that that one of the worrying signs still in the stock market is that people are still too enamored with tech these stocks went way up too much their valuations increased on fed liquidity a lot of that's coming out of the system now and until investors break the love affair they have with some of the names like this the market overall can't get can't get real sure and and totally get the argument but i just think when we look at the transformational growth in tech that's not stopping in terms of cloud cyber security obviously names like pow out that we saw last night names that are holding up i believe the amount of tech spending over the next four to five years will actually be more than what we've seen over the last 15.
so it speaks to my view from a multiple perspective you don't just throw the talon on these names because what we're seeing on fundamentals play out and that's going to be the debate as we saw today uh front and center before you leave we have an you
Comments 0