Charlie Munger explains why you don’t need a diversified portfolio

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분산투자는 무지한 투자자에게나 필요하다고 주장. 잘 아는 투자자라면 3종목, 극단적으로는 1종목(예: 코스트코)만으로도 충분하다고 말함. 과거 자신의 집중투자 경험과 복리 계산을 근거로 제시. 자막 내용은 주로 집중투자 철학이며 특정 시점의 가격 전망은 없음.

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01. if you had a foundation today with let's say a billion dollars would you be comfortable with it being invested in just three stops well let's take the foundation I'll change your question around so I want to answer it am I comfortable with a non-diversified portfolio of course I'm if you sake the mongers I care about the mongers the MERS have three stocks we got to block a burshire we got to block a Costco we have a blocka we lose fund and the rest is dribs and grabs so am I comfortable am I securely Rich you're damn right I am and could other people be just as comfortable as I am if didn't have a pass portfolio with a lot of names in it many of whom neither they nether understand or their advisers understand of course they be better off they did what I did but and and is three stocks enough what are the chances that Costco is going to fail what are the chances that burer haway is going to fail what are the chances that leelu's portfolio in China is going to fail Chan of any one of those things happening are almost zero the chance that all three of them are going to fail of course it's kind that's one of the good ideas I had when I was young when I started investing my little piddly savings as a lawyer I tried to figure out how much diversification I would need if I had a 10% Advantage every year who wor stocks generally I just worked it out I have any formul that I just worked it out of my high school algebra and I realized that if I was going to be there for 30 or 40 years I'd be about 99% sure to do just fine if I never own more than three stocks and then my average holding period was 3 or four years and once I'd done that with my my little pencil I just I never I know believe this ball Dash they teach about wide diversification and if you're diversification is for people who don't know anything Warren calls them no nothing investors if you're a no nothing investor of course use it on the average but if you're not a no if you're actually capable of figuring out something that'll work better you're just hurting yourselves for looking for 50 when three will suffice hell one will suffice if you do it right one if you have one CCH what else do you need in life and so the whole idea of that the know something investor needs a lot of diversification to think we're paying these professors to teach this crap to our young and that people think they should be paid by telling us to diversify where it's right it's an idiot decision and where it's wrong you shouldn't be teaching what's wrong so it's what's going on in corporate finance teaching is that people are getting paid for dispensing Baler Dash and not sense I never believed it it was a great help to me it helps if you're out in the market and the other people are believing Baler Dash and you know what the hell is going on it's a big help but so of course you don't want a lot if if your uncle Horus who has no children has a immense business which is immensely secure and powerful and he's going to leave it all to you if you come to work in the business you don't need any diversification you don't need any Corporate Finance professors you should go to work for Ultra horse it's a CCH you only need one CCH and sometimes the market gives you the equivalent of an uncle Horus and when it does step up to the pie court with pikart with a big pan Pik Hearts like that don't come very often when they do you have to have the gumption and the determination to to seize the opportunity shly I was lucky imagine learning that from your dead great-grandfather at a very young age but you know I spent my whole life with dead people I really like there's so they're so much better than any of the people I'm with here on Earth all the dead people in the world you can learn a lot from them and they're very convenient to reach out both know those problems of transportation and so I really recommend making friends among the eminent dead which of course I did very early that's been enormously helpful some of you wouldn't have helped me but Adam Smith really did