저자: Invest Daily · 외국인
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So I think it's a possibility. My view is that the dollar has far more downside risk than the investing public perceives. In theory, the US could print money and keep the stock market up in nominal terms, right? But if the Fed prints money and cuts interest rates right now, I suppose the dollar would weaken, and that weakness could exceed the price gains on the domestic stock market.
In other words, you may make some money in US stocks, but you may lose it massively on the currency. I think that's a possibility. In real terms, I think we've already seen the top of the US market. I call it the Trump top. Do you think he's been talking about gold recently, even on his social media account over the past couple of weeks? He's been saying that whoever owns the gold holds all the cards or makes all the rules.
What are your thoughts on Trump talking about gold? He's even talked on video about the gold standard. Do you think it's viable? What is he doing with gold? Well, I don't know. My view of him is that he doesn't know what he's talking about in 90% of the cases. I'm sure someone in the administration suggested that a temporary solution to the problem would be to revalue gold massively, to say $10,000 an ounce. But I don't see how the US could do that without first checking precisely whether they own any gold. That is a big question.
How much gold does the US still own? A lot of people are talking about auditing Fort Knox, and how some of the gold there might be leased and not actually theirs. What would happen if they did a real audit of Fort Knox and the supposed gold that's supposed to be there isn't there, or it's leased? What would that do to the market?
Don't be so kind. It's been stolen by the politicians. The Bushes have for sure taken some, and the Clintons. So what happens if they do an audit and it comes back empty? What would it do to gold prices and the market? Would people ultimately lose trust in anything the US says, like "oh, we have this many tons of gold"? If it's not there, it's been stolen. What would happen?
Well, first of all, I don't think they'll audit Fort Knox. Maybe they know it's not there, or whatever. My view is that there's significantly less gold at Fort Knox than they claim to have. If the public read tomorrow in the Herald Tribune, the Wall Street Journal, and everywhere else that Fort Knox has no gold, that it's all gone, in my view this would be disastrous for the US dollar, right? And the price of gold would, in my view, go through the roof.
How much more upside do you see gold having right now in 2025? Yes, but it is impossible to say what something is worth in an inflationary monetary period, right? I could give you a 20-minute speech on why gold is grossly overvalued, because I compare it to wheat, corn, or soybeans. Or I could give you a speech saying gold is still grossly undervalued, when I consider how many individuals own gold, how much money there is in the world, the monetary quantity of all countries, and the debts of all countries. So I can make both cases, and I cannot tell you whether gold is cheap or expensive.
I can only tell you that in my view, owning gold is probably a relatively safe asset because it's not a liability of someone else. Does that make sense? If I have a bank deposit or buy a bond, someone owes me money. But if I keep gold and store it in my garden, or in a safe deposit box, I think it's relatively safe. Not 100%, because the government can declare ownership of gold illegal. Absolutely.
And with Russia and China aggressively accumulating gold, do you think this could trigger a broader shift away from the US dollar and global reserves? Are they trying to completely move away from that control? The dollar as a reserve currency is finished anyway. The question is whether it happens today or in 10 years. The days of the US dollar as a reserve currency may end, and the whole financial system may change: either they are no longer reserve currencies, or we move back to a gold standard, or to a cryptocurrency standard, or something else. I wouldn't bet that in 10 years the dollar is still a reserve currency.
What political, geopolitical, or environmental risks could threaten the gold or silver supply? Could a gold-backed cryptocurrency or a BRICS trade agreement weaken the dollar's dominance? Yes. Or a war could weaken it, or a default. All I can say is that no paper currency has remained a reserve currency forever. The only reserve currency that has lasted throughout history is gold and silver, which makes sense when you think about it. If you bought an ounce of gold or silver in Roman times, I'm not saying it was a good investment through today, but you still have that ounce of gold and silver, right?
Even looking at market psychology, if you look at gold ETFs, they now hold more metal than most central banks. At what point does speculative positioning itself become a systemic risk to gold's safe-haven status? I don't know at what stage. My view is that the more people own gold ETFs and gold, the safer gold will be, because it's politically very difficult for a government to take away something owned by everybody. It's difficult to go to people in the US and say, "Now your property is ours, the government is taking it over."
Yes, they can take it over indirectly by bankrupting homeowners first, and then the homeowners have to sell to companies like Blackstone and BlackRock. So ownership shifts from the private sector to the government sector. That's terrifying if it moves from private to government hands.
It's terrifying that the government could lock people in during COVID, but it happened. Nobody thought it would be possible in a democracy, but it happened. It still feels like a crazy dream looking back to 2020. I'm happy people woke up, or somewhat woke up, though I'm not sure they did. You think they're still sleeping? I think the next government, or this government, would tell people they have to stay home for this or that reason. They'll always find an excuse, and that's an excuse to have more control and power over people.
What would your advice be right now, Dr. Faber, for the youth, the young person out there who's struggling to save money and just getting into silver and gold? Well, my advice is always diversification. You need to own assets in real estate, in stocks, some cash, and some precious metals. Don't overtrade. Don't speculate in gold, but acquire gold, silver, and platinum as a store of value that you keep for emergencies, for your old age, or whatever. But don't speculate in gold and silver in the futures market. There you get a margin call, you have to sell at the wrong time, and you lose all your money. Yeah. I think people should move away from get-rich-quick schemes and overnight wealth creation toward long-term wealth creation. This
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