저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
SK하이닉스(SKHY) 기술적 분석 영상. 당일 6.58% 급락, 주간 약 19% 하락 언급. 20/50/100/200일선 모두 하회, MACD·On-Balance·Stochastic·Fish 지표 모두 약세, RSI 26.93으로 과매도권 근접. 피벗 지지 134.64/132.8/127.52, 저항 139.92/143.36/148.64 제시. 연환산 변동성 66.79%. 148.45 상회 회복 전까지 신규 롱 자제 의견. 면책 고지 포함.
다듬은 글
SPY C trade desk note for the session. The work here is data-driven built on daily closes, 8 to 10 names a day across price action, momentum, and structure. On the tape today, SK Hynix Inc. ticker SKHY. Standard reminder before we get to levels. This is information and education, not investment advice.
Earnings and headlines move price fast, so clear every decision with a registered and qualified advisor. If the desk work helps your process, like and subscribe on our YouTube channel. First read of the morning, risk versus reward measured by the Sharpe ratio. The Sharpe ratio currently stands at 0.26.
A reading below one indicates historical returns have not fully compensated investors for the volatility assumed, which argues for caution and disciplined position sizing. The shares last traded at 136.49. A single session decline of roughly 6.58% from yesterday's close of 146.11. Evidence of near-term supply.
Over the trailing week, the stock has retreated approximately 19.25% from its close of 169.3, confirming a defensive short-term bias. The drawdown panel at the bottom of the chart measures the retreat from recent highs. Readings that hold above the yellow reference line are consistent with a healthy uptrend, while readings beneath the blue line point to oversold conditions or sustained selling pressure.
A value near zero indicates price is holding close to its recent highs. From a portfolio perspective, trend structure defines how much risk a position deserves, and we measure it with the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages. The 50-day moving average sits at 170.67. The 100-day at zero, and the 200-day at zero.
Within this framework, the stock is currently trading in a mixed position relative to its key moving averages, which yields a neutral structural reading until a decisive break emerges. Summarizing the full alignment, price currently trades below the nine, below the 20, below the 50, below the 100, and below the 200-day moving averages.
In aggregate, the stock trades below one of its three major moving averages, a posture consistent with sustained distribution and broader selling pressure. For chart reference, the 20-day moving average is plotted in green, the 50-day in red, the 100-day in yellow, and the 200-day in cyan with current values displayed along the right margin.
The In-Out Wave in the middle panel serves as the short-term momentum overlay in this framework. The In-Out Wave is currently negative, reflecting deteriorating short-term momentum and persistent selling pressure. The accompanying histogram is below zero, strengthening the case for near-term downside.
Taken together, these readings describe an active short-term downtrend. For risk management purposes, the pivot ladder defines where stops and targets belong because these are the prices at which participation has historically been heaviest. The current pivot price level is 138.8, displayed as the white horizontal line on the chart.
Three key support levels sit at 134.64, 132.8, and 127.52 with corresponding resistance at 139.92, 143.36, and 148.64. Support is plotted in green and resistance in red. These levels frequently define the boundaries of short-term action. And a clean break through one level often sets the stage for a move toward the next.
The on balance volume curve, shown alongside its moving average in the middle panel, tracks cumulative buying versus selling pressure. A rising curve typically precedes or confirms upward price movement. The on balance volume line is plotted in pink with its 6-day moving average in cyan. Trend lines.
The chart displays multiple trend lines drawn through significant pivot points. Lower trend lines act as dynamic support and upper trend lines as resistance, and price tends to respect these boundaries particularly once they have been tested several times. Entries are typically most attractive near support with protective stops just beneath, while exits are best staged just below resistance before reversal risk builds.
Following a clean breakout, prior resistance frequently converts to new support and former support to resistance, so these levels deserve careful analysis before any capital is committed. MACD, middle panel, lagging by design. Price confirms. The MACD histogram is currently contracting, indicating momentum is decelerating.
The MACD value stands at minus 7.8, firmly below zero with the histogram at minus 5.96. With both measures negative, the indicator signals sustained downside pressure. The relative strength index, or RSI, is a momentum oscillator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes on a scale of 0 to 100, and it remains one of the most reliable gauges overbought and oversold conditions.
The RSI is plotted in the middle panel with a current reading of 26.93. It has been falling over recent sessions, signaling fading buying interest and raising the probability of further downside. Complementing the RSI, the parabolic SAR is plotted as a yellow series on the top panel and is designed to flag potential trend reversals.
When SAR sits below price, the trend is bullish, and when it sits above, the trend is bearish. The current SAR value is 175.67, and it sits above the current price, confirming an active downtrend. Now, let us talk about volatility because it directly shapes how large a position should be and how much risk it carries.
The annualized volatility for this stock is 66.79%. This sits above the 30% threshold and is rising, signaling expanding price swings and elevated near-term risk. It helps to remember that sudden volatility shifts can deliver outsized gains or losses, and that quiet stretches often become the setup zones for the next major move.
From there, we move to the Fibonacci retracement levels, which identify key support and resistance from recent price swings. The 61.8% retracement is among the most respected levels in professional practice as price frequently revisits it before resuming trend. Measured over the past 30 days of price action, that retracement sits at 160.23.
Over the 60-day range, the equivalent level is 159.49. Both are marked as yellow and white horizontal lines on the chart. The stochastic oscillator is displayed in the middle panel. When the stochastic trends upward, momentum favors the buyers. When it trends downward, momentum favors the sellers. On the daily stochastic, the current trend reads bearish.
Fish indicator transforms price data. Reversals easier to identify. Positive bullish. Negative bearish. Two variants of the fish indicator are computed and plotted in the middle panel. The primary method in red and green, and the secondary method in orange and cyan, cross-checking the two filters out a meaningful share of false signals.
The fish difference under the primary method is 0.27. A negative reading that confirms continued downside momentum. Under the secondary method, the fish difference is 0.29. A negative reading that reinforces the case for further price erosion. With both fish methods below zero, the indicator describes a coordinated bearish regime, and agreement of this kind between the two methods constitutes a high conviction signal.
We close where every risk review should close with the levels that define where the thesis is right and where it is wrong. Several horizontal lines are drawn on the chart, green marking support and red marking resistance with price typically oscillating between them until a decisive breakout occurs.
The major support levels are 133.8 and 136.49 and the major resistance levels are 151.5 and 157.73. Support and resistance evolve with price action develops and a detailed breakdown of pivot support. Active support is labeled as one and as two and active resistance is labeled R1 and R2. All key metrics for SKHY are summarized along the right side and top of the chart.
The Williams percentage indicator is displayed in orange in the middle panel. It responds quickly and is most useful for identifying short-term overbought and oversold conditions with readings above 50 supporting a bullish bias. On the latest system signal, a bearish trigger occurred at 195.73. Before considering new long exposure, watch for price to reclaim and hold above 148.45.
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