저자: Thomas · 외국인
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테슬라(TSLA) 하락 흐름에 대한 기술적 분석이며, 추가 하락 가능성을 제시함 핵심 결론: 테슬라는 모멘텀 약화와 추세 전환 신호로 하락 중이며, 다음 지지선인 약 242달러 부근까지 밀릴 수 있다고 봄 모멘텀 분석: 고점이 올라갈수록 상승 힘이 약해지는 약세 다이버전스가 나타났고, 하락 파동의 매도세는 강해짐 추세 전환 확인: 이전 저점 이탈 후 낮은 고점과 낮은 저점이 형성되어 하락 추세로 전환된 것으로 판단 진입 신호: 240분봉과 일봉에서 약세 장악형 패턴이 나타났고, 지지선 이탈 후 약세 깃발형 패턴이 확인됨 주봉·월봉: 주봉에서도 약세 장악형이 나왔고 월봉에서도 유사 패턴이 형성 중이며, 이번 달 남은 기간이 많아 확정은 아님 추가 하락 목표: 1차 지지 약 303.48달러, 2차 지지 약 297.6달러를 하향 돌파하면 약 242달러까지 하락 가능성 제시 리스크 관리: 고점 대비 약 80포인트 하락해 과매도 구간이므로 추격 매도는 지양하고, 반등 후 약세 깃발형 확인 뒤 대응 권고 지지선 참고: 일봉 기준 303~304달러, 297.5달러 부근 지지 여부를 주시 출연자 전망: 단기적으로 추가 하락을 예상하나, 지지선 부근에서는 신중한 접근을 강조함
다듬은 글
hey there everybody Thomas with base camp trading it is Thursday July 6th and we're going to take a look at Tesla in this massive down move we've had over the past couple of weeks and I kind of want to point out what's happened how you could have to been able to know that this was getting ready to drop um based on price action momentum and then we're going to talk a little bit more about okay well now that it is selling off what do we expect to happen next what's going on next so first thing first we're going to start on a lower time frame we're going to start on 240 we're going to go to a daily then we're going to go to a weekly then we're going to go to a monthly cuz that's how you get a big picture a long-term picture you start with small smaller time frames and we look forward to get bigger from there so first thing you would wanted to look at here with Tesla and this is why momentum is so important and if you come into the Trad room you'll see me I I talk about naked trading and price action trading all the time that's the number one most important thing but number two is momentum pay attention to the strength of a market and you can see here as we were continuing to climb the trend was staying and uptrend staying uptrend all the way up here but as we were climbing momentum was weakening and how can you tell that well you look at peak one Peak two peak three okay look at the strength of those rallies on each one then the second thing you look at is look at the strength of the sell-offs coming in so you can see we have more sellers coming in on each downswing so the down swings are picking up strength the upswings are losing strength okay so that's your first big tip now a Divergence that's what's called a bearish Divergence and a Divergence in and of itself is not enough to say that the Market's going to completely reverse it does mean we look for consolidation which you got here and which we started up here but it doesn't mean it's going to completely reverse so what do we look for once the consolidation starts to say all right we could have a bigger move down well the first thing we're going to look for is the previous pivot low and we're going to look for a trend change okay so the if you don't know the definition of a trend I'm going to link a video in here uh called naked trading or or fundamentals of price action trading I'll teach you all about how to read a price action Trend but to put it quickly we're looking for lower high lower low pivots so how does that work well we need to come down we break through the previous pivot low right here all right so that's step one we broke the previous pivot low and then we bounce and we put in a lower pivot high so now we have a lower low and a lower high so lower lows plus lower highs equals downtrend now as of this point right here we have changed Trend and that suggests that or gives us the okay and the clear to say okay we can continue to head lower from this level okay so a Divergence in itself does not always mean complete reversal watch for the price action to confirm now there are a couple other things here though that also could have helped you with timing entries into the trade what are those well number one um just like we had back here we had a bearish engulfing pattern right here now the difference between this bearish engulfing pattern right here and this bearish engulfing pattern right here is the Divergence we had bearish momentum on the second one we did not have bearish momentum on the first one okay so this is saying hey heads up bearish engulfing if it breaks that bars low we can look for a bigger move down to the support level which was at 662 which obviously we broke right through there the second thing you look for once you broken the support we look for the first one or two bare Flags so where's a bare flag right here is be flag down bounce back up break previous bars low accelerate lower back up break previous bars low accelerate lower and the second one's even better because it was not only a a bare flag but it also again had a bearish engulfing pattern bearish engulfing is a gap up engulf the entirety of the previous bar closed down below it okay now if you're sitting there going well Thomas that's a whole lot to base off of just the 240s you can see why the 240s hopefully by this explanation why they were so bearish but let's move on and take a look at the dailies because there's a couple things that would have tipped you off on the dailies as well so if we come up here we look at our dailies once more we're going to look at the peaks of the price action and look at the momentum a very nice well-defined bearish Divergence and same thing look at the prev previous pivot low if we can break through there then we should be okay to start really pushing down that's the first test obviously it broke down through there now at the top here as well we had bearish engulfing one and then right over here we had a bearish engulfing as well earlier this week momentum obviously picked up quite a bit to the downside and we've really fallen through the floor um now we'll take it one step further and say well okay let's say we're not trying to pick tops we're not cuz I personally don't do that I don't go counter Trend to the trade so I would have been looking to sell over here so how would we have known that we're still bearish this week well if we take a look at our weeklys same thing bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly now we did not have the bearish Divergence but you got to keep in mind the dailies and the 240s will build up into the weeklies and the monthlies so we can still catch very nice down moves or very nice counter momentum moves on the shorter time frame charts even though the weeklys and monthlies are still bullish um now we're starting to change to bearish obviously but we have a bearish engulfing on the weeklys and now we're also potentially forming a bearish engulfing on the monthly there's still honestly a whole lot of time left obviously for the rest of this month though so now that you see okay understand how you would have known that this was a good setup I understand why we were selling it let's talk about what's next so you need to have expectations on how a trade should behave and how a trade should play out so what are we looking for well the next things we're going to be looking at are a support level at 30348 B support level at 2976 if we can get through there then we're in the clear to drop quite a bit more down all the way down to 240 so or so 242 next down to the next support the other thing I want to say be careful of you don't want to be chasing this Market down okay it's selling off yes but I'm not looking to sell down here why because we're really extended now we've just dropped from a high of 390 all the way down to 311 so we're down 80 points off the high so be careful be patient watch for something like a bare flag or watch for it to consolidate have a little bit of a bounce and then continue to push lower don't sell at the bottom okay so keep that in mind as well and also don't want to be selling right on top of support so the next couple things we're going to be watching for we want to see momentum stay bearish watch for a bare flag on the dailies we're going to also pay attention to the support on the dailies at 30340 and 2975 so that's all I have for you for today I will see you all in the trading room bright and early tomorrow morning don't forget to like And subscribe if you enjoy the video and until next time happy Trading
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