저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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결론: 그랜섬은 주식시장이 장기 약세장 중반이며 단기 반등은 있을 수 있으나 인플레이션·저성장(스태그플레이션)과 인구 감소로 장기적으로 1970~80년대식 환경에 재진입할 위험이 크다고 본다. 약세장 흐름: 올해 상반기 S&P500 하락 속도는 1939년 이후 가장 빨랐다. 단기 강세 반등(베어마켓 랠리)이 한 달 이상 이어질 수 있으나 바닥은 현재 수준보다 훨씬 낮을 것으로 본다. 밸류에이션 기준: 실질(인플레 조정) 기준 S&P500이 고점 대비 약 50% 하락할 것으로 예상. 추세선 기준 공정가치는 약 1년 뒤 3,000 부근으로 제시했다. 과거 큰 버블 붕괴 때는 추세선 아래까지 내려간 사례가 많다. 이익 조정: 경기침체 시 기업이익 감소가 추가 하락 요인이며, 이익 감소와 PER 하락이 동시에 나타날 수 있다고 본다. 종목 언급: 아마존은 2000년 닷컴 붕괴 때 92% 하락 사례로 설명. 테슬라는 정점에서 지나치게 비싼 가격이었다고 평가. 빅테크(Amazon 등)는 훌륭한 기업이나 초거품 종목으로 분류하지 않았다. 시장 심리: 시장은 대체로 합리적(약 80%)이나 약 15%는 낙관에 휩쓸리고, 약 5%는 비관으로 비합리적으로 과매도된다. 극단적 비관기(2009년 3월 등)가 최고의 매수 기회라고 강조. 연준 평가: 연준의 인플레 판단 실패 가능성을 지적하며 기록이 나쁘다고 평가. 과거 20~25년간 저금리와 중국·동유럽 노동력 편입이 자산가격 상승을 지지했다고 설명. 거시 리스크: 유가가 여전히 높고 식량·비료·천연가스 가격 충격이 인플레 압력을 만든다. 우크라이나 침공 이후 원자재 급등은 일부 되돌림. 경기침체 우려가 금리 인하 기대로 전환돼 주가를 떠받치는 현상을 설명. 인구·자원: 주요 선진국(이스라엘·중국 제외)의 출산율이 대체출산율 이하이며, 중국 출산율은 약 1.4 수준으로 급락했다. 고령 인구 증가와 노동 공급 감소가 장기 인플레 요인. 원자재는 저비용 고품질 자원이 고갈되는 추세로 장기 상승 전망. 사회 리스크: 식량가격 급등은 정치 불안을 촉발할 수 있고(아랍의 봄 사례), 스리랑카 사태처럼 짧은 기간에 체제가 흔들릴 수 있다고 경고. 미국 민주주의 상태가 80~100년 내 최악이라는 우려 표명. 노동 참가: 미국의 경제활동참가율은 2000년 대비 하락했고, 유럽에 비해 비경제활동 인구가 많다고 지적. 출연자 전망: 단기(수주~수개월) 반등 가능, 중기 이후 약세 지속, 장기적으로 인플레이션·스태그플레이션 재진입 우려. 개별 종목 매수 추천은 없음.
다듬은 글
the first half of this year is about as fast as stock markets ever decline I remember seeing that the first four months was the fastest decline in the s p since 1939 when I was one year old and they were preparing for World War one so that's a pretty good excuse to go down and this was the fastest decline this is about as fast as markets go down they always have good rallies there's nothing as quick and spectacular as a bear Market rally they had one in late 1929 to early 1930 an absolute doozy of 45 and of course with historical hindsight they signify very little but at the time they frightened the pants off the Bears and they give hope that all is over all is forgotten and it's back to the races and I suspect we may very well have a pretty decent bear Market rally as we sit I wouldn't be surprised if this went on for at least another month in terms of the entire bear Market it would be unusual for it to bottom out anywhere near this high I would expect that by the load that the s p would have declined by 50 from the peak in real terms so you do have to adjust the stock market for inflation and also the trend the trend in the market is a little over four percent a year and as time passes you should put that into the fair value so a year from now when the bear Market might end trend line value would be almost 3 000 on the S P of course there's no rule that says you've stuck at their value but typically in previous big bubbles breaking they go down below that they went down below of course in the housing bust of 09 and they went down in every Great Bear Market break they went below Trend except Alan Greenspan's specialty in 2000 in 2000 the s p was heroically overpriced it came down 50 but a 50 decline it was only fair value it only hit the track and then bounced as the FED raised to re-stimulate the NASDAQ went down 82.
that's a lot of pain and it's possible that would do that again but you do have to adjust for inflation there was very little inflation around in 2000 but this time with inflation running at 809 it does move the nominal value of the s p upwards and one shouldn't move side of that the second shoe is going to drop which is profits so you have even a mild procession you get a big whack from profit margins and the p goes down but also the earnings you're multiplying it goes down it is quite likely and plausible that earnings will drop in recession I don't include classic fangs as being in the super secular category I think you could throw Tesla in at its peak that was super speculative great company but a bit of a silly price there but the others like Amazon and so on they're great companies but I wouldn't have included them as super specs and yes they're down quite a lot it's hard in a bull market to get your brain around what happens in a bad Market let me go back to Amazon in the 2000 burst didn't just come down as its sales continued to grow of course in those days it didn't have earnings things because it was running on borrowed resources it didn't have to it was still growing like the week it came down 92 percent 92 percent with strongly Rising sales a brilliant successful new idea that went on to own the world and be worth afford you how is it possible it came down 90 92.
think about that sometimes as you go to bed I like to say 80 of the time the market is pretty sensible and doing a possibly good job of estimating value for all the companies a little under 15 of the time it gets carried away with optimism and by the end of that time has nothing to do with actual earnings it's all in the head projecting out hundreds of years into the future assuming the perfect conditions will stay perfect forever every bubble takes place with near-perfect conditions and huge profit margins and the market runs with that and assumes it will stay there forever and of course conditions mean profit margins mean Reverb and good times become bad times and that is a problem and the remaining five percent the market gets carried away on the downside and starts to be completely irrational as it was beginning to be in March of 2009.
it was getting pretty silly pessimistic I wrote a piece reinvesting went terrified that my sheer luck came out the day the market hit its low and it said get a policy get a plan present it to your committee or yourself and start to throw your money back into the market you feel powerwise everyone always does and Now's the Time to wake up the market is cheap and of course that happened in 1974 and 82 which were classic lows and the market got down to 7pu and what I call terminal paralysis sets in where you're so frightened you can hardly move you can hardly get to work forget buy stocks and that's of course as Warren Buffett would have said that's exactly the time you have to do it and it's only five percent of the time they are much quicker than the crazy bull markets if I'd been asked about would the FED get inflation wrong when inflation came long at any time I would have said of course they'll miss it they'll be late their responses will be pretty ill judged the fed's record is terrible what is impressive is how much room they have been cut by the market I mean the market is incredibly forgiving to the fed the FED happened for 20 years 25 years to benefit from that amazing era as 500 million Chinese raced into the big cities and were plugged from marginal farming into highly profitable industrial system and then they joined the World Trade Association and made everybody's stuffed dogs and everybody's iPhones for that matter during that phase 500 million extra Chinese 200 million Eastern Europeans plugging into away from communism into capitalism that was a golden Theory Goldilocks if ever there was one and the FED got to take credit for them it's done nothing in terms of increasing the growth rate but superficially it felt like a golden age because asset prices went up because inflation came down and rights were allowed to come down and in the end rates were forced down and low rates may leverage cheap make private Equity deals wonderfully easy and profitable and they push up the price of real estate and they push up the price of stocks and that's the way it was and this time if you adjust for the passage of time the price of oil is not as high but it's still multiplied recently by three times so that is imposing pain on consumption and is imposing inflationary pressure we also have because of the invasion of Ukraine we have had some extra spikes in the price of food fertilizer and natural gas particularly in Europe interestingly they are now almost all of them lower in price than the day before The Invasion and this is a lovely example of how the stock market works the stock market is saying whoops there's so much damage from commodity price Rises etc etc we're going to have a recession but the recession isn't bad news because the recession is going to get the FED back in in our camp of low interest rates again and helping stock prices and we're looking out into the future and therefore that's the good news so the fear of a recession becomes a wishful thinking about future interest rates and so the market gets a retreat for a while it's quite remarkable but it's fairly typical and that's what we're having now and that's why we might have a bit of a rally for a few weeks I think in the longer term to get the next few quarters who knows what happens really but in the longer term we are really running the risk that this is back to the 70s we have problems with the availability of plentiful cheap resources and we have problems with planful cheap labor the birth rate has crunched in every developed country except Israel and China that's a very very important segment of the global economy to say the least and every one of them has lower than replacement level so in the end after accumulating lots of older people as a higher and higher percentage we start to actually have the population drop secondly with 10 and 20 years in depending on the country into having smaller baby cobons so we know with absolute certainty since they're alive already the 20 year olds arriving in the marketplace will be fewer and fewer for the next 20 years and we have not experienced this before this has happened incredibly fast China has gone from Plenty of babies to a baby crunch almost overnight their fertility rate that needs to be 2.1 is probably running about 1.4 and even in the U.S the UK we're running about 1.7 we've never seen levels like this so we're going to have a hard time getting enough labor we're going to accumulate old people who are very resource intensive they need a lot of medical care they need a lot of people care and we're not going to have all that many people they're they're supplier people to look after as old fogies is dropping steadily from now on for the rest of your life for sure and at the same time I believe the correct interpretation of the commodity data is that but it wasn't only china shop the rapid growth rate for 30 years in China but it was also showing signs that the best and cheapest most plentiful resources had simply been mined or pumped and that we are running down into the second tip if you look at the track the trend has been pretty robustly up since 2002 and my guess is it will continue to rise and that will pose a real stagflationary pressure for a couple of decades and that's why I fear this is re-entering the 70s and 80s if you prefer it re-entering the 20th century once again so inflation will always be part of the discussion sometimes it will be low sometimes it will be higher but it will always be on the agenda the same with stagplation there will be pressure on growth that we have not had we have had a glorious honeymoon period for 20 years where raids always came down and where Chinese workers were always available and inflation was a thing of the past and it is no longer a thing of the past and unless we're lucky and have some sensible behavior from governments around the world this installation will go in little waves and will become moderately embedded at best and really embedded the worst the risk of destabilizing the whole global system have risen and continue to rise it is quite scary the risks are in the develop world too but the speed with which Sri Lanka went from jogging along okay to complete chaos I mean that is that is shocking isn't it the whole system it took less than two years to go from to an outsider anyway looking pretty stable to looking out of control it doesn't take much and when you mess with food the terrea square days of the Arab Spring they chanted bread Freedom dignity bread Freedom dignity but bread was first and that was just based on a temporary 150 increase in the price of wheat well we just had another one that was 150 increase in the price of Wheat and there's likely to be pretty powerful repercussions around the whole of Africa the Middle East and who knows where the thing about these pressure points is it's often unexpected light tree like it things you didn't have on your radar screen suddenly blow up bad things can happen anywhere in the US you'd have to say our democracy looks to be in the worst shape for 80 100 years or more through my eyes with attempts to overthrow democracy as far as one can tell it's dangerous times without a war and ironically the war May improve some things but it certainly increases the aggregate risk of some terrible mistake being made in the end resources will become more important as I like to say it doesn't take much for the four loaves of bread for a haircut to become four hair cuts for a loaf of bread in the end loaf of bread is more important than a haircut and they have a lot of the world's resources out there in the emerging World maybe that will turn out to be a trump card we still haven't reached the utilization rate the percentage of people working is way down from 2000.
in 2000 we had about as high a participation rate as anyone on the planet and since then ours has come down the Italians and and so on I've gone up we have one of the lower participation rates which is really the definition of unemployment how many people do you have what fraction are working and the rest are in a sense unemployed and we do not equal the EU the way we State the unemployment rate we're always very proud but we have more people not working than Europe does they seem to have found a new willingness to resign if their job is crummy and they're not paid enough and they have been treated diabolically badly since that 1975 and they get paid a ton more money than they used to and we do not
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