저자: 짐로저스 · 외국인
요약 보기
짐 로저스는 금과 은이 향후 1~2년에서 3년 사이에 크게 오를 것으로 전망하며, 현재는 은을 금보다 우선 매수 대상으로 꼽았다. 전망의 근거: 은은 사상 최고가 대비 약 60% 하락, 금은 약 10% 하락해 역사적으로 은이 훨씬 싸다는 판단이다. 그는 본인도 현재는 금·은을 사지 않고 있으며, 가격이 더 하락하면 추가 매수할 계획이라고 밝혔다. 투자 방법: 금과 은에 대해 누구나 일정량은 보유해야 하며, 지식이 많다면 더 많이 살 수 있다고 말했다. ETF, 금 현물, 주식, 선물 등 다양한 방식이 있다고 언급했다. 자산시장 비교: 채권은 역사상 가장 비싼 수준이고, 뉴질랜드·한국 등 일부 국가의 부동산은 버블이며 악화되고 있다고 평가했다. 주식은 일부에서 버블이 형성되고 있다고 봤다. 반면 상품(원자재)은 여전히 가장 싼 자산군이며, 은과 설탕 모두 사상 최고가 대비 크게 하락한 상태라고 주장했다. 주식시장 전망: 인도 등 세계 증시가 계속 신고가를 경신하고 있어 버블이 당분간 더 갈 수 있다고 봤다. 모든 종목이 버블에 들어설 때 매도를 고려하겠다고 했으며, 현재는 매도하거나 공매도하지 않고 있다. 다만 마지막 폭발이 있다면 그때는 매도와 공매도를 시작할 것이라고 밝혔다. 리스크: 은·금 가격 하락 가능성과 주식시장 버블 붕괴 가능성을 언급했으나, 구체적 시점은 제시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
jim it's such a treat to have you join us today especially at a time when you continue to be very very bullish on commodities let's dive right in especially uh you know during this time of year here in india everyone's out there looking to go shopping and particularly of course for some of those heavy metals so how's gold looking to you right now please go out and buy me some gold it always looks good to me i mean i have my gold right here but if you don't want to buy gold buy me some silver you know i'll take i will take both uh i i'm actually not buying either one right now although i expect to buy more uh i'm not very good at market timing but i hope that if they go down some more i will buy more of each before this wait before this is over the next year or two or three gold and silver are going to go up a huge amount that's so interesting jim because i was going to ask you given the kind of gains that we have seen yes they've been looking good but you know are they starting to look expensive and what's the kind of increase you're anticipating so when you're saying the next two or three years i mean how much more and then is this a good time then to get in and stay invested in through etfs or what would you recommend but if if a person does not own some gold or silver she should buy some more she should certainly buy some gold and silver everybody should have some gold and silver if you know a lot about it then you can buy more and you can buy a whole lot of gold and silver if you know a a whole lot about them and you will get the time you can buy etfs you can buy gold itself you can buy stocks there are many you can buy futures there are many ways to buy gold and silver depending on what you know okay so between gold and silver then which one is which one comes first and why for me today today's prices silver comes first silver is down 60 from its all-time high gold is down 10 from its all-time high so on a historic basis silver is much cheaper if i were buying either one of them today i would buy silver okay fair enough and in terms of commodities vis-a-vis what we're seeing otherwise in equity markets how do you think you know it stands on a relative basis as an attractive investment option as you look around the world we know that bonds are above bonds have never been this expensive in the entire history of the world so that's a boat if you look at property in some countries new zealand korea some places property is a bubble and getting worse if you look at stocks i mean stocks are beginning to form bubbles amazon never goes down samsung goes up every day 10 cent goes up every day the indian stock market's making new highs so stocks are certainly not cheap they're becoming forming bubbles in some places the cheapest asset class in the world commodities silver is down 60 from its all-time high sugar is down huge from its all-time high these are not bubble numbers commodities are still the cheapest asset class right now are you expecting or anticipating any kind of correction or crash in the equity market jim because as you mentioned it's a global phenomenon especially what we're seeing on wall street and here in india we've just continued to see markets trend higher and higher from one record to the other watch india today they will tell you that's how you know you think i know i watch into you today no i i would suspect that the bubble is going to last for a while long because not all stocks are in the bubble yet but when everything is in the stock market bubble then it will be time to get out i am not selling yet i am not selling short i am certainly not selling sure but if this thing has one last explosion then i hope i'm smart enough to start selling and to start selling short all over the world
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