저자: RayDalio—영상진행자추정,소속상세는설명란부재로미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 달러 약세와 스태그플레이션 위험을 경고하며 가치투자자는 그에 대비한 균형 포트폴리오를 구성해야 한다는 주장. [지정학·제재] 미국의 対러시아 제재는 경제전쟁 수단이며, 장기적으로 달러 자산 보유자에게 큰 영향을 준다. 인도의 러시아 직거래 등으로 달러 체제 이탈 움직임이 있다. [역사적 사례] 1971년 닉슨의 금태환 중단 당시 달러가 오히려 상승했고, 1933년 루즈벨트 시기에도 유사한 사례가 있었다. 과거 역사는 현재를 이해하는 가이드라는 주장. [통화 가치·부채] 대규모 재정적자 → 통화 증발 → 화폐가치 하락 구조. 부채를 경화(hard money)로 갚으면 디플레이션성 침체, 연화(soft money)로 갚으면 인플레이션. 현재는 후자 쪽으로 가고 있다고 봄. [금리·채권] 금리 인상은 장기 기술주 등 위험자산에 불리. 채권 펀드는 마이너스 수익률이 될 수 있어 쓸모없어질 수 있음. 인플레이션율(7% 수준)이 금리(2%대)보다 높아 연준이 어려운 상황. [대안 통화] 암호화폐, 금, 위안화(디지털 위안 포함)가 달러와 경쟁할 수 있다고 봄. 모든 통화는 부채 기반이라 상대적으로 모두 가치가 하락한다는 견해. [결론] 스태그플레이션 시기가 올 가능성이 크며, 투자자는 이에 맞춰 포트폴리오를 재구성해야 한다.
다듬은 글
we all know how devastating military warfare can be but do you know about the effects of economic warfare and the ensuing bear market what implications would the dollar devaluation have for value investors and how are the sanctions the u.s has imposed on russia playing their role in destabilizing the dollar ray dalio has been closely acquainted with this dynamic cycle and in this video we bring you some of the most important advice from him before we move on make sure you press the like and subscribe button so that you don't miss out on anything related to financial freedom and stock market investing welcome to five it happened back then but will it happen again ray dalio is the owner of the world's largest hedge fund known as the bridgewater associates he has been observing the historical cycle which leads to a potential downfall he warns all the value investors about the consequences that such events historically tend to have on the economy and today on the dollar as a reserve currency the billionaire has studied the last 500 years of economic cycles and now explains how another change in the world order is going to happen it has happened before according to ray dalio the us is imposing sanctions and sanctions are a source of economic warfare it is going to have huge implications in the long term for the dollar don't forget that others are trying to get out of the dollar system for example india is directly dealing with russia and that is going to have serious effects for dollar denominated asset holders consequently they're not going to hold on to those assets because they feel like they're going to get grabbed soon so what's happening now has happened many times before because when dalio was working as a clerk on the floor of the new york stock exchange president nixon declares that we're not going to give you gold that the dollar is backed by at that moment dalio observed that the dollar was going through a devaluation when he went up on the floor of the stock exchange thinking that it was going to depreciate a lot he saw that it actually went up a lot the same exact effect took place in history on march 5th 1933 during president roosevelt's era according to dalio history is very important because it helped him study the great depression and anticipate the crisis of 2008.
the past is a guide to what is happening now stock market the only thing that matters for the stock markets is the cash flow and when a conflict begins to emerge the cash flow is halted to a certain degree that's how a conflict can have its toll on the market what we're seeing now is that the value of money when you run very large deficits falls over time for example when you run large deficits you actually spend a lot you're spending on social programs environmental programs technological programs so when you spend money on a big scale more than you're actually earning you have to print more money to make up for that difference and to make up the purchases this entire cycle results in the devaluation of money the two examples for such inflationary periods can be the crisis of 1971 and 2008 when cash is trash the market goes up among other things and people begin to learn that the bonds that they are holding on to have negative returns this is going to change the value of money and the value of the dollar to be particular that money goes into other assets produces more inflation and you start to enter a certain type of environment according to ray dalio the environment we're building up to is very much like the environment of the 1970s how to deal with debt so there are two ways of dealing with debt you can either pay it back in hard money or you can pay it back in soft money if you pay it back in hard money you have a serious problem on your hands you are moving towards depression because history tells us that whenever we've paid in hard money eventually that got abandoned and we had to print more money that was what happened in 1971 a similar cycle took place in 1933.
ray dalio thinks that we need to learn about how much money someone has what is the value of money and how much money does one have in debt instruments and do you want to own that as an asset that is a bad asset to own new money changing nature of money what is money and is the dollar going to remain the same sort of reserve currency we're looking at many forms and new types of money different types of money will compete with each other in the environment we're entering it can be crypto it can be gold maybe the digital remnim b competes with the us dollar think about how much money is being stored in debt assets and that is going to yield bad returns in the long term all types of currencies have a lot of debt under their belts so when you're comparing them or you're looking at one relative to the other there is going to be a lot of printing ray dalian says that currency equals debt and that when you're holding a lot of currency you're actually holding a lot of debt so all of these currencies will decline in value relative to other things now the million dollar question is that will the dollar decline more in value than all the other currencies it's almost certain that we're going to step into that kind of environment in which there's a shifting of those currencies that means you might see a lot of renminbi being used and india has a direct link with russia over currency that is an important store of currency but how that is a store of wealth is a completely different question so a currency is a medium of change and a storehold of wealth and this storehold is going to be a problem not only for the dollar but for other countries as well that's why we have inflation as money goes into other things and the cost of borrowing is so low relative to the inflation rate a new nature of money is emerging we're in a paradigm shift basically a paradigm shift is a shift from a mindset and positioning of that mindset to another mindset and positioning of that for example the mindset we were all in was that the inflation rate was low and the bonds and the cash owned by us is going to bring no problem even the companies don't mind about it and their inventories are huge even homeowners don't worry about this situation and so on once that shift begins it causes a reinforcing dynamic it's like everybody is in a bull market or we've been in a 40-year bull market in bonds so when the shifts start to take place you see behavioral shifts that reinforce the cycle in the paradigm for example when there is a selling of bonds that makes it more inflationary in itself because the amount of debt that has to be sold is not just the deficit but the bonds are also bringing in debt so now the interest rates have to rise a lot or the federal reserve has got to come in there and buy more and then you get wages people normally make wage settlements the paradigm shift we're moving towards is the result of the conflict which is disrupting efficient systems raising interest rates when you raise the interest on bonds when you raise the interest on cash and you actually tighten the money then that makes other assets less attractive such as risky and long duration assets like tech stocks so you produce that squeeze but that's two percent or a little more than two percent but the inflation rate has been considerably higher than that not to mention that we have a seven percent inflation rate let's say that it gets low something like five percent but it is still tightening and that is too much for the market and the economy so the fed is going to be in a very difficult place in a few years from now here's the problem if you're borrowing more money than you're actually lending and you're under a substantial debt you're either going to pay back in hard money or soft money and so it creates a very difficult trade-off so what do you do you spend less money that is only going to make the situation worse how will it feel like having bonds but with no returns that bonds are going to be useless and that is how the stagflation starts because the bond funds are going to yield negative returns one man's assets are another man's debts and this cycle goes on where we're heading according to ray dallian most likely we're going to have a period of stagflation and then value investors will have to understand how to build a portfolio that's balanced for that kind of an environment so every investment is going to be an exchange of lump sum payment for future cash flow and the cost of money is a consideration relative to the return of money and so when we look at that money and think we can hold on to cash or bonds that actually changes the inclination to hold cash but also one has to look at the expected return on equities in other words one calculates the present values of future cash flows you estimate what are those earnings going to be in the future and what are they worth today stocks are not having expected returns which are not more than bonds which would not be more than cash so as that happens the relationship between bonds and equities stocks and cash and the rates at which companies buy and the rates at which companies earn money has a pervasive effect on the economy and the markets looking at the environment we're entering considering the global economic hegemony you might want to analyze the six stock categories that are important for every value invested to prepare for the period we are looking forward to check the six stock categories free ebook in the description below and take action now to prepare for the worst what do you think about rae dalian's point of view will there be a stagflation let us know in the comment section below subscribe and turn on notifications check out the video we have picked for you and we'll see you in the next one
Comments 0