저자: CharlieMunger—영상내발언인용 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 찰리 멍거는 비트코인 등 암호화폐를 생산성 없는 자산으로 보고 투자 대상이 아니라고 주장한다. 멍거의 핵심 주장: 암호화폐는 현금흐름을 만들지 않고 가치 기반이 없으며, 다음 사람이 더 비싸게 사주기를 기대하는 구조라 결국 나쁘게 끝난다고 본다. 멍거는 비트코인을 쥐 독(rat poison)에 비유하며 '아무것도 투자하지 않는 것'이라고 평가했다. 근거 1 — 생산성 자산 비교: 주식은 배당과 기업 이익을, 농장이나 주택은 작물과 임대료를 창출하지만 암호화폐는 아무것도 생산하지 않는다고 설명한다. 근거 2 — 레밍 현상: 사람들은 군중을 따라 움직이는 경향이 있으며, 암호화폐 열풍도 이런 군중심리의 결과로 설명된다. 근거 3 — 가치 기반 부재: 금·은과 법정화폐는 각각 귀금속 가치, 정부의 법적 강제력 등 근거가 있으나 암호화폐는 그런 기반이 없다고 본다. 근거 4 — 변동성: 미국 달러는 연 약 2%의 인플레이션으로 가치가 완만히 줄어들지만, 암호화폐는 주말에 30% 하락하거나 머스크 트윗에 30~40% 폭락하는 등 극심하게 불안정하다. 근거 5 — 예측 불가능성: 주식은 경기 사이클과 GDP 등과 연관되어 전략을 세울 수 있으나 암호화폐는 무작위적으로 움직인다. 조건/리스크: 영상은 전통적 가치투자 관점의 주장이며, 블록체인 기술 자체의 중요성은 인정한다. 영상 말미에는 주식 6가지 카테고리 설명 유료 자료 안내가 있다. 출연자 전망: 암호화폐는 결국 나쁘게 끝날 것이며 비트코인은 투자 대상이 아니라는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
do you know why the communist leader in china has banned bitcoin and why they don't follow any speculation around it well like what you hear or not it's certainly the correct pathway investing money in bitcoin is at the top of many to-do lists out there but there is someone who stands firmly against this notion charlie munger is the vice president of berkshire hathaway and the right-hand man of the legendary investor warren buffett and he thinks that crypto is undermining the world currencies and it is evil as well as delusional it's human nature that people always seem to follow speculation and are attracted to things that are glowing and fascinating well according to manga evil's doing its thing and guess what it is playing with your hard-earned money this time you will have a different mindset about crypto by the time this video concludes this video is a must watch all the way regardless of your attitude regarding cryptocurrencies sometimes we get overwhelmed by popular opinion and are forced to follow what everyone's been doing this video is some piece of wise advice by charlie munger on whether cryptos are buy or not so stay put because you don't want to miss out on this the fact that we're talking about clever computer science doesn't mean that crypto will pull off wonders for you there's this thing about non-productive assets that they're not providing you with anything and to make things worse you're dependent on other people to make your money crypto has taken the world by a surprise during the last few years well to put first things first if someone comes up to you and says that that's a big time buyer you should put your savings in it simply say no according to charlie munger crypto is an investment in nothing furthermore the 98 year old stresses that he would never in his life touch them currencies have no unique value at all no doubt that blockchain technology is important but manga is quite certain that it will come to a bad end for example when you invest in quality stock you're actually buying into the company and now you can expect your share to rise as the stock prices go up and you may well receive stable dividends if you've your money invested in one of those dividend stocks similarly when you buy a farm you look at the crop every year and you consider the prices then you make a decision if it was a good investment or not so actually you're looking at the asset itself and what it is producing for you bitcoin according to manga is bound to end badly for how long can the speculation continue on one side manga has compared bitcoin with turds there are people on the other side willing to bet their houses on crypto now why is this happening why do people like to become the architect of their destruction well there's a well-known analogy underneath according to lemming syndrome people tend to follow what their peers are doing many psychologists have proved that people naturally follow the larger group instead of going through independent risks this phenomenon is known as the lemming syndrome this is derived from the popular myths of rodents called lemmings found in the arctic region that are supposed to follow herd behaviour they follow the behaviour of their peers even if they lead them to death so if people see their peers jumping off the cliff they tend to jump off too this is why people are attracted to crypto's upheaval they like to follow popular opinion and in that process they usually ignore the rational thought process when you buy a business you look at what the underlying business model is and how the business model goes about it's working and what money they're earning but in this whole scenario you've maintained the principal asset itself it's the additional income you're worried about after investing in such assets you don't only have what you bought in the first place but you also have what the asset produced now this is the problem with non-productive assets like cryptocurrencies when you buy let us say bitcoin all you're depending on is whether the next person is going to pay you more because they're even more passionate as well as excited about another next person in the line coming along but deep down the asset is creating nothing itself in crypto's case it simply does not generate any kind of cash flow now being a traditional value investor you should always consider a cash outflow to be an investment and it always produces cash inflows in some months or years to come without the need to get rid of the asset itself for example if an investor buys equity shares in some business those shares will produce cash flows in the form of dividends and similarly if you buy a house you can generate some serious cash flow in the form of rent but you are not selling the underlying asset another flaw can be the unavailability of tangible assets because cryptocurrencies are simply not backed by tangible assets now most traditional orthodox investors believe that cryptocurrencies do not make good investments and one day or another they're bound to end miserably however they also believe that crypto will not make good currencies either currencies need to have an underlying value if they're to be effective which you're not getting with crypto historically gold and silver have some underlying value because they were considered to be precious metals and they emerged to be currencies in almost every continent throughout the world now similarly fiat currencies are generating their value from the government it is simply banned or illegal to not consider these currencies in the country where they are issued with cryptocurrencies there is no underlying value decree or source from which they can derive their power another reason why traditional value investors are not standing with crypto is that they're not stable now we all know that currencies fluctuate in value the reason is that the amount of money in circulation keeps on increasing or decreasing in comparison to the assets in the underlying economy now for example the united states dollar loses around two percent of its underlying value each year due to the ensuing inflation and truth be told this is quite normal for all currencies with crypto comes some serious trouble they take this instability to a whole new level for example it is common for crypto to lose 30 percent of its value over the weekend now in the past few years crypto has been extremely volatile they have simply quadrupled in value only to come down like some comet and then rise again and the interesting thing is that the depreciation takes place due to some meaningless events as it happened when elon musk tweeted negative comments revolving around cryptocurrencies a lot of these currencies lost 30 percent or even 40 percent of their value this level of instability is not productive at any level and hence cryptocurrencies are not and cannot be considered good investments another factor about cryptocurrencies is that they cannot be predicted you can at least have some calculation or some strategy when you're dealing with stocks for example you can look at the market cycles to make your investing decisions but the same is not true with crypto movement in their value or price does not follow any pattern on the other hand stocks seem to have a direct relation with the gdp of a country with crypto the movement is quite random which makes it vulnerable to all sorts of problems so what is your opinion about charlie munger's advice on crypto are you still gonna bet everything on kryptos upheaval or are you gonna play it safe and depend on productive assets instead let us know in the comments section below investing in non-productive assets can bring about many problems for traditional investors in the long run this is why charlie munger has termed crypto as some sort of rat poison however investing in the stock market is far more productive than crypto in every sense you can receive dividends in the long run and your stock price can also grow in value if you're making your investments with certain research following for that it is very important to understand some stock categories this is the reason we've provided explain the six stock categories in detail
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