저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인은 올해 고점 대비 약 60% 하락했지만 채굴원가 기반 하방선과 블록체인 본질적 가치(신뢰 없는 거래·가치 저장)를 근거로 장기 낙관을 유지. 비트코인 연말 10만 달러 이상, 이더리움 5천 달러 회복 전망. 주식은 2027년 EPS 400달러 기준 S&P500 목표 8,000 상향, AI·에너지 인프라 투자 지속과 신용스프레드 안정이 근거. 단기 조정 가능성은 인정하나 경기 침체가 없으면 V자 반등이 기본 시나리오라고 주장.
다듬은 글
I am optimistic about cryptocurrency because Bitcoin is still the best way to transfer and store value and record transactions without trust. Bitcoin will fully recover . You know, I think the price of Bitcoin will exceed 100,000 by the end of the year. Hmm, but none of these figures really change the history of cryptocurrency .
We raised our target to 8,000, which effectively amounts to $400 in profit for 2027. Bitcoin has fallen almost 60% from its high this year. Ethereum lost two- thirds of its value. By most measures , this looks like a failed deal. Tom Lee doesn't think so. Lee's firm acquired Ethereum this week for over $40 million , and he tells us why the worst first half of the year for cryptocurrency in years has n't changed his thesis at all.
His argument is based on something specific: where the price of Bitcoin stands relative to how much it actually costs to mine it, and what would have to happen for that lower bound to fail. It's a structure that most people who watch the headlines have never heard from him in its entirety. Before we get to his S&P target or his outlook for the next 6 months for stocks, we'll start where the real test is happening right now in an asset that everyone else has already given up on.
The reason we were bullish on cryptocurrencies earlier this year, and indeed for the past 10 years, is that cryptocurrencies and blockchains solve an important problem, which is how to make trusted transactions between two untrusted parties. And this type of settlement and finality has been proven because, as you know, Bitcoin and Ethereum have never recorded a fraudulent login in their entire history.
Hmm, and that's why Wall Street is creating tokenized assets and building stablecoin rails, and I think that over time, I think blockchain will actually be used as a replacement for a lot of the legacy financial rails. For example, today in Europe, in London, the Goldman Sachs conference is taking place, and the number of participants has almost tripled compared to last year.
Hmm, I'm also optimistic about cryptocurrencies because I think as agents and AI become much richer and we start to see, you know, agents creating wealth for us and robots creating wealth for us. The opportunity for us is that we can reach a point where agents actually own more wealth than we do. You know, I call it the " uncanny valley of riches." That there may come a time when, if our delegated agents make more money than we do, we will wonder whether we work for them or they work for us.
And I think that's why cryptocurrency and a lot of technologists are starting to realize that cryptocurrency is actually one way for people to control the future role of agents. So I think those two megatrends are still there, but cryptocurrency prices this year have been, ahem, absolutely terrible.
I think part of it is , um, macroeconomic policy, you know, is not "dovey." She looked questionable 6 months ago, didn't she? The market expected two cuts, now two increases. Hmm, that's a headwind. The Clarity Act, which was supposed to help ensure and create federal rulemaking on cryptocurrencies and allow the CFTC to essentially have control over the industry, you know, it's still stuck in Congressional processes.
And, um, artificial intelligence, of course, has performed so well that I think it has not only diverted attention, but actually taken away investors' capital. So I think for me it's, um, a headwind, but they don't create what I call inter-generic substitution . I think blockchain will still be a central factor in the future of the financial services industry and, indeed, how we manage AI.
You know, cryptocurrency is a hypervolatile technology. So, Bitcoin falls from 120,000 to 58,000, and Ethereum, which is, you know, the beta version of Bitcoin, falls from 5,000 to 1,600. This still falls within the historical parameters of bull and bear market cycles in crypto. So the price hasn't reached a level that would mean something has broken.
Hmm, but what was broken was that stocks did well this year , and cryptocurrencies did poorly. And, um, I think part of it has to do with some of the macroeconomic things that Scott and I have been discussing , like the Fed becoming a little more assertive, and AI really taking away some of the capital, and the Clarity Act and the positive release that comes with it, hasn't happened yet.
Hmm, but none of these factors really change the history of cryptocurrencies because, like me, you know, like a mousetrap, blockchain is still the best way to transfer and store value and record transactions without trust. Hmm, and that's why I think Wall Street will still build and is rapidly building blockchains.
You know, it just does n't happen in our everyday lives yet. And for the same reason, I think, a lot of AI engineers are experimenting with using blockchain to govern future agents to protect us, because when AI gets rich enough, you know, humans could be taken out of this economic cycle. Um, so I think that's why I think Bitcoin will fully recover .
You know, I think by the end of the year, Bitcoin will be over 100,000, and Ethereum will, you know, be back over 5,000. So, you know, I think investors' patience is clearly being tested because it seems like Bitcoin has been down for three quarters in a row. But I don't think it's ever fallen four quarters in a row.
So that will be a test that if they don't recover from June to September, then you're right, maybe something is broken. If you look at it, it's the cost of producing it, because there's the cost of mining and finding the next block, and I think Bitcoin is now about 5% below the cost of production. If Bitcoin falls below 50 % of its production cost, it literally means you just need to crash the network.
If you can't support the management of the Bitcoin network at its current price. I mean, to me, that would be the equivalent of JP Morgan trading at half book value. Lee's arguments about cryptocurrency and his arguments about stocks are built on the same foundation. Price dynamics that look bad at first glance , but are not supported by fundamental data.
Bitcoin is trading near cost , not below it. The credit spread remains narrow, not sharply inflated. Earnings estimates are being revised upwards , even as payouts by numerous investors have declined. It's the same prism he's now directing at the broader market. The first half of the year has already grown by almost 9%.
He just raised the goal to 8,000, and the list of reasons why the second half could get tough before it gets better is growing, growing. 2026, um, should be the fourth year of double-digit growth. This may surprise viewers, but when markets post 3 years of strong growth, which we saw in 2023, 2024, 2025, um, the fourth year is actually usually pretty solid.
That was one of the reasons why we were constructive and, uh , earlier this year, it was thought that earnings could be a driver of the markets. And, uh, that's what happened, because earlier this year, the S&P consensus forecast for 2027 earnings , uh, very similar to ours, was $350, and now it's $400.
So it went up by $50. And the P/E ratio for earnings for 2027 at the beginning of the year was 19.4. It is now $18.4. So the stock market, which may surprise people, is actually cheaper now than it was in January, even though we're 9% higher. I think there's a lot of sense in being constructive here because I think there's room for further upward revisions to earnings for the US.
The drivers of profits remain unchanged. You know, part of it is due to the development of artificial intelligence and energy infrastructure that is happening now. Hmm, part of this is due to the trend of shifting investment to other markets, and of course there is still some residual government spending on infrastructure.
So it's all a tailwind for spending, and I think for the most part, investor sentiment has n't turned positive. Yes, we raised our target to 8,000, which is essentially $400 profit for 2027, and then we're trading at 20x, which is 8,000. Hmm, but from June to December, I think the market has a lot of tests to go through.
And many don't believe it because they will point to oil and all these uncertainties. But I think I've learned that markets anticipate negative shocks. So I think we could have a very serious correction. But if the economy doesn't collapse, then we actually have a negative cycle. Uh, I think the yield curve will tell us that, and the spreads will tell us that, the corporate credit spreads, but as long as the economy doesn't collapse, any correction that we have will be V-shaped.
And I know I'm saying something mechanical, but of course it will be tested, but it will still be my default belief . I think they are both beneficiaries of AI on the bottom line just as Scott mentioned that Amazon is a huge beneficiary of AI, and I think the financial services industry is also a huge beneficiary of AI.
So I think, you know, today people, investors, are buying bottlenecks because there is visible growth there. But every month, the people working on the AI bottom line are reaping increasing benefits because these are companies and software. And you know, these software companies are not monolithic, they have boards of directors, CEOs , sales reps, and engineers, and they all see what we see, and there are many ways they can benefit from AI.
So for us, it's the D rating that happened and all these stocks, uh, tell us that the risk premium is really attractive. Two assets, one structure. The Lee line for Bitcoin is the cost of production. If you cross it below half, the network itself will lose its meaning. His line for stocks is the economy itself.
As long as the growth continues, any correction that occurs between now and December will quickly fade . Four tests await the market. One deal has already been tested, and, according to him, it was successful.
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