저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 붐이 버블인지 논쟁. 그랜섬 관점 인용하며 미국 주식이 역사상 가장 비싸다는 주장 제기, 매출이 비용 증가를 따라가지 못하는 점을 위험 요인으로 지적. 버블 붕괴 시점은 예측 불가. PE 15는 장기평균 수준이라는 언급. 이후 연준 및 유가·인플레이션 이야기로 전환, 이란 이슈 등으로 유가가 올라 인플레가 재발할 수 있으며 연준 금리 인상 가능성을 언급하나 방향은 불분명.
다듬은 글
There's no arguing that ultimately, this text is definitely point number 2, which is the scary part. That's terrifying, I'm telling you, this is extremely frightening. How do you view this in relation to Jemy Grand's perspective? And US stocks are at their highest price in history. true? The most expensive in history, really [the song].
It turns out, uh, this is a bubble. The scariest thing is that the revenue doesn't keep up. I can't keep up with the expenses; they're skyrocketing. It depends on the usage, but if you ask me, I'd say... It's scary how tech companies price things. If earnings don't come in, there's a chance that... It will die, but whenever that happens, if we talk about it from the perspective of bubbles, it will burst.
It means there's no way to move forward; you have to keep repeating the same thing over and over. This makes it difficult to progress. As long as we can still create... There are new girls, and there are new men too, so we use the word "we". It's also possible to create new stories from it. This is going to be a bubble effect, with 2, 3, or 4 bubbles appearing, and then it will...
Once it's layered with the existing one, it will be able to continue. Jane seems a bit out of the loop, or maybe... Everyone still thinks they're sticking to just one location. There are two groups we should be dealing with here. We have to see it first before we can accept that it's correct. There's a chance it's nearing its end.
Number one is AGI, which means there has to be a peak of intellectual intelligence. We need to start to see some signs of invention first. Right now we haven't seen it, but we still feel it. It's constantly improving, it can keep going. Our goal is to take this channel to 1 million subscribers, so please subscribe!
We now have YouTube Membership; by subscribing you'll receive... Exclusive access to events and seminars from Pred KP and the Business Tomorrow Team. What are your thoughts on Jemy Grand's view? And are US stocks the most expensive in the world? Is it true history? Uh, okay, let's answer each question one by one.
It's expensive at... This is truly the most incredible thing in history, I saw it. Same here, no. No matter which indicator is used, I'm saying no. Definitely, it's a province where stocks are undervalued. Secondly, it stems from its fundamentals. I think the support for this isn't 100% the same in every bubble.
Each bubble has its own specific characteristics. Yes, I'm still here, but this time I believe... It's fast and powerful for a variety of reasons. Uh, well, this device doesn't have internet access. Uh, is that right? Imagine what they call... I used the word extravagance or a characteristic of... The bubble originated from Miss Price, for example, because she was a person from California.
Being in New York, wow, how do we contact each other? Time is measured in days, you know? Because... Therefore, there is a very high possibility that... The price is fundamentally wrong due to a genuine error. Uh, well, it's not even close to anything. That's the correct approach, but currently... Information spreads so fast!
Therefore, there will be a difference, like this: Firstly, I believe the market has reached a fair price point, meaning there is very little misinformation. Uh, it's not like it used to be. It 's the kind that builds upon the fundamentals. It means they stem from different causes, so it doesn't mean...
It means people received incorrect information, but that's what it means. It means that people are evaluating future value. Is that correct? Well, they do evaluate it every day. Ah, they evaluate it every day. Right now, they might say, "Okay, 30% growth per year," but at the beginning of the year, they estimated 7% growth for this year.
So it became quite inflated, but now... Things are starting to waver... Hmm, maybe I need to cut back? I need to add it, so it will become... It seems this period is a true fundamental bubble. The problem for everyone is assessing the future. Ah, that's enough information, but it's not the same... Well, it might just be that it didn't assess correctly.
So, what number should it be anyway? This is what's different from the third one, I think it's the difference between the three periods, let's say the three periods are... There's one really scary thing about this, okay, let's take a step back. The " Fast Road" phase involves a lot of investment. In the end, we didn't use it, so the bubble burst.
Oh, nobody actually came to buy, let's say we built a road... The train went into the strange state of Balta. The page is unused, just for fun, okay? That means the investment ultimately does n't yield a return on investment (ROI). You've already invested, and... well, you're essentially getting nothing in return.
The turnaround isn't going to happen, which is... One of the causes of the second type of bubble is that it's similar to, well, similar to the story... Regarding internet software, this is a story about... Internet software is really something. The software itself, we've already produced. But nobody's using it, and we haven't invested in it.
It's, uh, a really crazy infrastructure. Not much, really. We don't have anything that needs continuous maintenance. It's... Another type of bubble wrap... once it's done, it's the end. There's no continuous course, so it doesn't flow. That's really scary. As soon as it broke, we just deleted it. If we throw it away, we'll just start over, and it will come back up.
It's faster than the first one, but this time there's... Investing in actual infrastructure, like in the first scenario, would include data centers and their use. This is different from software because it also has maintenance fees. Especially, uh... My guitarist is sitting here pressing buttons on the AI.
Even if it's not profitable, we don't care. We'll still keep using the AI and keep asking questions. We also used pictures of, uh, what they call children. You guys came home dressed in weird outfits, or are you still doing that? What kind of things have low productivity but require high analytical skills?
That's what's coming next. It's alright, alright. And this one, they ca n't charge me for it. Absolutely, whenever he charges me. I'll make a comparison, okay? It turns out that... Uh, this is a terrifying bubble. The worst part is that the income can't keep up with the expenses. After paying, the expenses skyrocketed.
In terms of usage, so if you ask me... These tech companies are quite scary; their pricing is such that if earnings don't come in, there's a problem. The chances of it breaking are high, and it's happening. This has an impact on the US economy. It's good for the medium to long term, but the question is, will it break down?
The only thing I can say is, "When will it happen?" It's a bubble, and I can tell you another thing: it will definitely burst, but the timing, I'll tell you, nobody can predict it. So what will cause it, and what will lead to everything? People have lost confidence, and eventually they give up. Trading at a PE of 15, I'm telling you, that's equivalent to the long-term average.
Oh my god, if there's no resurgence in the economy, it's difficult. And if there's no resurgence in earnings, it's difficult too. Okay, so if you're answering the guitar question... I just went there, and we won't argue that in the end, this text isn't blurry or anything. No, it's definitely a bubble.
Point number 2 is about the scary aspect. Is it scary? I'll tell you... This is extremely scary, guys. But the timing is key, whether it will break or not. This is just like we've been discussing all along, that point... Here, we're looking at the expectations, specifically point number 1, which represents the early stages of AI.
We're currently searching for information. So, how can we profit from AI in this world? That's the first point, which goes back to something similar to... Around the year 905, we had n't yet seen the coolest, most disruptive, or innovative use of CAS (Computer-Assisted Comprehension) that would make money across the entire market because...
Therefore, I believe we won't be giving up. It's that simple, we might be here, but... Okay, we haven't seen the second point yet. We're on a cycle rate, which is from the end of 2000, 1999 to 2000, so there was something there. We're starting to smell something fishy about the income. It's definitely not coming, and that's the end of it.
In the end, will all of this be over for me? I believe we're only focusing on two points; we might be somewhere in the middle, around 1997 or so. I believe that's the key factor... What nobody knows the answer to for sure is that it will gradually evolve, but when? So, if we talk about it from a bubble perspective, for it to burst, there's no longer a story to continue with.
It means there's no longer a story to continue with. To move forward, you have to repeat the same thing over and over again. This is going to be difficult to move forward with, but whenever that may be. We can still create new things. Yes, there are new things too; we can use the phrase "we are still able to..." This allows you to create new stories.
It will be a series of bubbles, 2, 3, 4, they will appear and they will overlap with the previous ones. Then it will be able to continue, which is how I still view AI right now, because we still... Still looking at [a deep breath] that you're acknowledging. Jane, did they outline the loop design? Or...?
Everyone still thinks they can still pin the location. There are two points we need to see first before we can proceed. While acknowledging that there's a chance of... We're almost finished. Number 1 is AGI, right? It means there has to be a point at the edge of intelligence. We need to start to see the benefits of artificial intelligence.
We haven't seen it yet, but we can still feel it. It can keep improving; it can still go further. Continuing with the second point they mentioned, which is about physical things, or things like human robots, that's another peak aspect. Similarly, we still haven't seen a robot. Where are some things that we feel are ready, like, okay, the marketing has sold them, so we'll buy them?
Like, you could hire them as servants in your house or something like that. I have n't seen that part yet, so... People's expectations can still go on. It's progressing steadily, that's my perspective. Okay, now it's clear and very obvious. What direction should we take next? How is it different from the past now?
Beyond the valuation that Doktae mentioned earlier, there's also the policy of... The Fed might change the direction of the market. Yes, that's right. Last night, Kevin Watch went on stage at the ECB, along with the governor. Many people have made an effort to decipher it. Signals regarding views on interest rates.
Inflation, you see, and he seems to be being careful with the word. He talks a lot, but it seems like there are signs that he... It seems the risk of inflation has decreased. They didn't provide forward guidance, but we're still trying to interpret it as them being concerned about inflation. Is it decreasing, Doctor?
Well, actually, we should be less worried about inflation. Okay, so that's how we discussed it. Before that, many people might say, "Wow, everything!" It happened because of Donald Trump, you know. It's so volatile, but let's talk about it. Let's be fair first, because actually the capacity... Global production exceeds our capacity.
We were already consuming it, even before it existed. In this kind of situation, it means everyone, including... For me, too, it's a project about oil prices. It has a high SYSTEM rating because the supply is... Is there a risk, or is there a chance? It's rising faster than the N/A portion anyway. According to the usual structure, this time, uh, the reason...
One thing that has caused oil prices to rise. That's strong and it's pulling inflation up, okay, then... This is about the issue of Iran, you see. These are items related to Donald Trump, and right here... It disappeared suddenly, so it became known as the planet Cyprus. The importance of the economy or the important upside of...
The price of oil dropped, so inflation occurred. There's a chance it could stabilize or even decline, but... If you ask whether the horror still remains... This is exactly what happened; it's similar to... It creates a scar, you know, a bit of an economic scar. That means not all inflation will be able to...
It can adjust downwards once the price goes up. Some things just really get out of hand, and that anxiety... For example, in the case of transportation. Various things include things like travel. Other than oil, in the Middle East. Nowadays, everyone needs insurance. Okay, it's increased by at least 5-10%.
It's not going down anymore, even if the war ends, they'll still go up. It will continue like this, and it will have consequences. This has a ripple effect on other goods that have to pass through the root of the equation, something like that. So, in my opinion, the first point is that it does look scary.
It's less important because there's no event, right? This means that the event cannot be recreated. It ca n't be recreated, but... uh... it... It's actually less scary now, because mostly... Well, based on its foundation, it doesn't really go that far. It's already there, but there are things we need to be careful about.
Right now, we don't really know what the consequence is of doing the right thing. How much has been sent already? It might be a very large amount. Look at Japan as an example; it's a self-reliant entity. Basically, it seems he leaked out. From, uh, disinflation, or deflation, and then it went up. What we're stuck at now is the First 2 rate, which was before this event.
It's currently at 3% as a result of this situation. The question is, did it go down when the oil price was falling? Well, it's still stuck around that area. Because they happened to come across a yellow color indicating the currency value. Weaknesses in tight monetary policy on the other side. Uh, on the part of developed market countries, that causes their currencies to weaken.
That includes costs like speculation and other speculative expenses. This is a concern we weren't aware of. But we have to look at the numbers, so... If you're asking if you can trust them, it's hard to say. Ah, so if you look at it from their perspective, then I... That's true in the sense that it will go down in the short term.
And that's also true in terms of distance. The long run still needs to be monitored; that might be the only thing. He didn't tell us, so we don't know. Whether he's right or wrong, even if we know, we might... I don't know if it's right or wrong. So, what direction is monetary policy heading? If I look at it fairly, the truth is...
The Fed's policy interest rate of around 4 percent, with a real interest rate of approximately 1 to 2 percent, isn't exactly a high interest rate. The payout is too small, but it's sufficient. That would help to curb inflation to some extent. Therefore, I'm still against raising interest rates. Personally, uh, based on what I've heard this time...
And then there's the whole story that happened. I believe there's a good chance Kevin Watch will be able to raise interest rates, including... The Fed will be able to raise interest rates, to use the word... Okay then. As for whether there will be a discount or not... We'll have to wait and see about that.
Yes, but is this good news for the global market? No, it's because the market seemed scared before. It's about raising interest rates. Oh, actually, I should say that was just a concept. Ours, which they didn't mention, happened to be. What he said was, he was saying, "Okay, it's still..." We need to keep an eye on inflation right now.
So, I went to speak in Europe, and the central banks that were there were also present. Currently, OK is a global bank. These stocks are all on an upward trend because... So, no matter how you say it, it... That would look normal, I guess. So, this one... It turns out that in the short term, these will be...
There are already pressure factors in place, it's just that in the short term... It will be a long time if inflation doesn't return. Looking back at today's events, It's just a short event, uh, at Fedney Hawk. That's a bit much, but in the end, I have to go back to Dove. Or perhaps, we could revert to, uh, a monetary policy that...
It's appropriate, and it fits the overall picture. Inflation is just a future phenomenon. Thank you to everyone who has followed us all this time. Our goal is to take this channel to 1 million subscribers in order to create a learning community. Gain knowledge in economics, business, and investment.
It's getting broader now! We have YouTube Membership; simply subscribe and you'll receive... [Song] Exclusive access to events and seminars from PR KP and the Business Tomorrow team. Please subscribe!
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