저자: WarrenBuffett · 외국인
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버크셔 해서웨이 주주총회 계열 발언으로, 대중 여론이나 거시경제 예측에 기반한 투자는 무의미하다고 주장. 경제학자·애널리스트 예측은 부(富)로 이어지지 않으며 케인스도 주식 예측으로 실패 후 가치투자로 전환했다고 언급. 좋은 기업을 이해 범위 내에서 저평가일 때 매수하는 접근 강조. 위험관리는 모델보다 상상력과 독립성이 중요하며, 버크셔는 외부 평가에 의존하지 않도록 유동성과 보수적 레버리지를 유지한다고 설명. 의사결정은 5분 내 go/no-go 판단이 원칙.
다듬은 글
it it really doesn't make any difference I mean what what we don't pay any attention to what what people say about Coca-Cola stock or Gillette stock or any of those things I mean on any given day 2 million shares of Coca-Cola May trade that's a lot of people selling a lot of people buying if you talk to one person you'd hear one thing and talk to another it really you really should not make decisions in Securities based on what other people think if you're if you're doing that uh you should you should think about doing something else because it it a public opinion poll will just it will not get you rich in Wall Street uh uh so you really want to stick with businesses that you feel you can somehow evaluate evaluate yourself and uh I don't think I mean Charlie and I we don't read anything about what business is going the econom is going to do or the Market's going to do or what anybody anytime I see some article that says you know these analysts say this or that about some business it just it doesn't mean anything to us uh you cannot you cannot get uh rich with a Weather Vein and I would say this in terms of the of predictions and I I know the spirit in which you asked the question but in there's just there's a market out there all the time uh and and people love to hear predictions I mean if if I said I was going to offer a bunch of predictions today I mean we we would have a million people here I mean they they're dying to have predictions and speeches rotary clubs or trade associations or what that's they they they just plain love it and that's what a whole industry is built upon you know the the people coming out of Washington that to talk about political predictions and the I don't read those in the paper at all because it's just it's it's space fillers basically and uh uh you mentioned Edgar Casey Ben Graham knew Edgar Casey pretty well but I I I just have never seen any utility to any of that at all there will be some huge surprises in the world uh there's no question about that but I don't I don't think that betting on any specific one is is a very smart policy in fact our we usually bet against them in terms of super catastrophes we know there will be a 7.0 or greater quake in California in the next 50 years we don't know where it'll be or when it'll be or anything like that we're willing to pay out a lot of money if it happens tomorrow and because people do worry about catastrophes in this case it's perfectly proper with with with insured values but it it just isn't any way in in our view to get through economic life Charlie all of these economists with 160 IQs to spend their life studying it can you name me one super wealthy Economist that's ever made money out of Securities you know I mean just go down the list there no kan's kan's actually in his early years tried to make money in stocks by predicting what business would do and he gave it up and then he went over to a Graham type approach I mean it's very interesting to read his history on this cuz he thought he could by looking at various economic variables pick what he called the credit cycle and make a lot of money and and he went broke a couple times and doing it had to borrow from people and then he settled on buying good businesses cheap that he understood and concentrating his Investments and he did very well it's an interesting history but if you if you look at the whole history of them you know they don't make a lot of money buying and selling stocks but people who buy sell stocks listen to them which is I have a little trouble that you know I I've not I've not earned any uh any uh stars for my past economic predictions and the good thing about my economic predictions if I even do make them is that I pay no attention to them myself so uh I I really uh and the way we pick our investments is we just don't get into the macro factors I can't recall a time when Charlie and I have looked at a business either buying it in its entirety or buying uh pieces of it through the stock market I just macro conclusions or just never never enter into the discussion I mean I'll pick up the phone we've had these two in recent months and I'll tell Charlie about it and you know we we talk about a few things but we don't talk about anything remotely macro uh and and that's really the way it'll stay you know I I I've seen a lot of Bank mergers recently and one of the things they do because they want to cut the cost and and justify a merger which they're dying to do I mean that's the reason they they so they they cut costs they wouldn't have cut if they if they weren't dying to do the merger in the first place and get bigger but that frequently I know one in particular that I'm thinking of that you know they'll cut out the economics Department you know I always wonder why the hell they had it in the first place you know because what what what do they do you know I mean the guy comes in I says I think GDP will be 4.6 this year instead of 4.3 so what you know I mean you're still trying to make every good loan me and you're still trying to take in deposits of she could be trying to cut cost wherever you can it's got nothing to do with running the business but but you know it it's it's fashionable and every bank had its Economist and economics department and when a big client come in they take them to lunch and it just it always has struck me as it's just a lot of nonsense uh you know so if we ever get a economics department at Berkshire sell the stock short there was one other item in here believe um which I think achieved a little added relevance in the last year I said we therefore need someone genetically programmed to recognize and avoid serious risks and then I put in italic including those never before experienced and then I said certain perils that lurk in investment strategies cannot be spotted by one of the models by use of the models commonly employed today by Financial institutions well I think that proved to be somewhat uh prophetic of what happened last year all of these places had models I mean the major Banks the major investment Banks and they would meet weekly at a risk committee probably and go over their models and all of the statistics would be printed in nice columns and everything and they didn't have the faintest idea what risk they were involved you really need in the investment World someone very solid someone you trusts uh reasonable analytical skills but you also need someone that actually can contemplate problems that haven't popped up yet but which are starting to become uh uh possibilities uh in terms of new financial instruments or new behaviors and markets and that sort of thing and that's a rare quality I mean that that inability to Envision something that doesn't show up in your past model uh you know can be fatal and Charlie and I spend a lot of time thinking about things that could hit us out of the blue that other people don't include in their thinking and uh we may miss some opportunities because of that but we feel it's essential when managing other people's money or for that matter managing our own money so I would say that that you might go back and read the 2006 annual report again but those are the criteria uh we're looking for and uh we have identified as being met by the four people we're thinking about Charlie yeah you can see how risk averse Berkshire is in the first place we try and behave in a way so that no rational person is going to worry about our credit and after we've done that and done it for many years we also behave in a way it and after we've done that and done it for many years we also behave in a way that if the world suddenly didn't like our credit we wouldn't even notice it for months uh that if the world suddenly didn't like our credit we wouldn't even notice it for months uh because we have such liquidity and are so unlikely to be uh unable to be pressured by anybody that double layering of of uh protection against risk is is is like breathing around birkshire it's just part of the culture and the alternative culture is just the opposite you call the man the chief risk officer but often he is functioning as a guy that makes you feel good while you do dumb things so he's like the delphic or Oracle that convinced the Persian king to attack attack somebody or other I mean it's he's just a dumb soothsayer and and how can a guy be dumb he's got a PhD and he can do all this advanced math well you can you can but you can it's perfect all you've got to do is crave system and computation so much that you torture reality in Def fitting some model mathematical model which really doesn't match particularly under extreme conditions and then because of this work that you're putting into everything and these computations about daily trading risk and so forth you feel confident that you've clobbered the risk but you haven't you've just clobbered up your own head yeah we we really want to run Burkshire you I'll even applaud that one we we really want to run Berkshire so that if the world isn't working tomorrow the way it's working today or the and it's working in a way nobody expected that we don't have a problem we do not want to be dependent on anybody or anything else uh uh and yet we want to keep doing things so uh we found a way to we think we found a way to do that it may give up some of the well obviously gives up earning higher returns 99% of the time and maybe 99.9% of the time um obviously we could have run Berkshire with more leverage over the years than we have but we wouldn't have slept as well and and we wouldn't feel comfortable we have a lot of people in this room that have almost all their net worth in birkshire including me and we wouldn't feel comfortable uh running a business that way why do it I mean it doesn't it just doesn't make any sense to us to to uh be exposed to ruin and disgrace and embarrassment and uh for something that's not that meaningful if we can earn a decent return on Capital you know what's an extra percentage point it just isn't that important so we will always try to behave in a way that U uh a is not dependent on anybody else evaluating the risk except for us it cannot be farmed out and you've seen what happened to some institutions where the management thought they were farming it out and uh you know if that means a so reasonable return instead of a slightly unreasonable return we we just accept it uh number two hello Mr Buffett hello Mr manger my name is Brook ATK and I'm from Munich Germany um I would like to get back to your point that as a professional investor one should be able to act quickly and decisively that means being able to know what the intrinsic value is and to act within a day or within an hour if the Market of Earth opportunity my question is how large is the universe of companies which you have in your head whose intrinsic value you know where you would be able to act within a day or two if the market offered an attractive price to you and secondly how come you suddenly invest in southern Korea or China yeah we we can act our our immediate decision is whether we can figure the what's being offered out to us or not I mean there's a there's a go no go signal and Charlie and I are often thought to be rude when we think we're just being polite and not wasting the other person's time so as they start mids sentence in their first conversation with us we just say forget it and uh Charlie's pretty good at that and I'm picking it up the uh it's we know very very very early in the conversation whether somebody's talking about something that there's any chance is actionable by us and we don't worry about the ones we miss uh we we want to make sure that we don't waste any time thinking about things that when we got all through thinking about them we're not going to know enough to make the decision on so we just rule those out and that rules a lot of things out uh then if it gets through a couple of these filters uh and makes it in to a an area where it says this is something that we know enough about to make a decision on we're ready to move right then so we make decisions we can make a decision in five minutes very easily I mean it just is not that complicated now we know about a number of businesses and industries and there's a lot of businesses and industries we don't know anything about we know about a lot of things about certain kinds of bonds and we know some there's a variety of things we know about and it's nice if we can expand that Universe of of of knowledge but the most important thing is that that anything that gets through is in an area of knowledge and the truth is if we can't make a decision in 5 minutes we can't make it in five months you know there's we're not going to learn enough in the following five months Warren Buffett emphasizes the importance of ignoring public opinion when making investment decisions he highlights that the stock market is filled with various opinions with people constantly buying and selling shares relying on others thoughts about stock such as cocacola or Gillette can lead to poor decisionmaking instead investors should focus on evaluating businesses themselves and making decisions based on their own analysis Buffett asserts that public opinion polls will not make one rich on Wall Street and those who rely on them should reconsider their investment strategy Buffett argues that making investment decisions based on economic predictions or Market forecasts is futile he points out that there is a constant market for predictions with people eagerly seeking out forecasts and analysts opinions however he believes that such predictions hold no real value and are essentially just fillers in the media instead of relying on predictions Buffett advises focusing on the intrinsic value of businesses and making decisions based on a solid understanding of their fundamentals according to Buffett economists and analysts who spend their lives studying economic variables and making predictions rarely achieve significant wealth from Securities he cites the example of John Maynard kees who initially tried to predict economic Cycles but eventually shifted to a value-based investment approach which proved more successful Buffett stresses that making money in the stock market requires understanding and investing in good businesses rather than attempting to predict Market movements Buffett shares that he and his partner Charlie muner do not base their investment decisions on macroeconomic factors they avoid getting caught up in discussions about the economy or market trends and instead focus on the specifics of the businesses they are considering By ignoring macro factors they ensure their investment decisions are based on solid business evaluations rather than speculative predictions Buffett highlights the importance of recognizing and avoiding serious risks in investment strategies he mentions that many Financial institutions rely on models and statistics to manage risk but these models often fail to account for unforeseen events Buffett and muner spend considerable time contemplating potential risks that others might Overlook ensuring that their investment decisions are robust even in the face of unexpected challenges Buffett criticizes the role of Chief risk officers and the Reliance on mathematical models in financial institutions he argues that these models can create a false sense of security and lead to poor decisionmaking instead Buffett advocates for a more cautious approach emphasizing the need for individuals who can Envision and prepare for potential problems that are not evident in existing models Buffett explains that birkshire hathway operates with a strong emphasis on liquidity and Independence they aim to ensure that the company is not dependent on external evaluations of risk and can withstand unexpected economic changes this approach allows them to avoid being pressured by market fluctuations and maintain stability even in uncertain times buffit discusses the importance of making quick and decisive investment decisions he and munder can often determine within minutes whether an investment opportunity is worth pursuing they focus on areas where they have sufficient knowledge and avoid wasting time on opportunities that they cannot thoroughly evaluate this efficiency allows them to act swiftly when they identify attract active Investments Buffett highlights the need for solid analytical skills and the ability to foresee potential risks in the investment world he believes that having someone who can contemplate and prepare for problems that have not yet occurred is crucial this approach helps birkshire hathway avoid catastrophic losses and ensures that their investment strategies are resilient in the face of unforeseen challenges Buffett concludes by emphasizing the importance of maintaining a reasonable approach to risk and return He acknowledges that while Berkshire hathway could achieve higher returns with more leverage they prioritize stability and security by avoiding unnecessary risks and focusing on solid business fundamentals they ensure long-term success and protect their investors interests this conservative approach reflects Buffett's philosophy of achieving steady sustainable growth rather than chasing short-term gains
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