저자: HarshGoela · 외국인
요약 보기
워런 버핏의 성공 요인을 복리와 시간에서 찾는 교육 영상이다. 결론: 버핏의 최대 비결은 높은 종목 선택 능력보다 오랜 기간 복리로 보유한 시간이다. 사례 1 - 시간의 힘: 버핏이 10세에 투자를 시작해 30세에 100만 달러(인플레이션 조정 시 약 967만 달러)를 모았다고 설명한다. 같은 조건으로 30세부터 투자했다면 연 19~20% 복리 시 순자산이 약 1,190만 달러 수준이며, 실제 순자산 845억 달러와 비교해 시간 차이의 효과를 강조한다. 사례 2 - 짐 사이먼스 비교: 연 66% 수익률을 낸 짐 사이먼스(르네상스 테크놀로지)의 2020년 순자산은 210억 달러로 버핏보다 약 75% 적다. 이유는 사이먼스가 50세 이후 투자를 시작했기 때문이며, 10세부터 같은 수익률로 투자했다면 63퀸틸리언 달러에 이른다고 주장한다. 사례 3 - 릭 거린: 버크셔 해서웨이 공동 창업자 릭 거린은 빠른 부 축적을 위해 레버리지를 과도하게 써서 1973~74년 시장 폭락 때 파산했고, 버크셔 지분을 70% 할인된 가격에 버핏에게 넘겼다. 영상 기준 버크셔 주가는 432,800달러다. 주의점: 레버리지 과다 사용은 파산 위험이 있다. 개별 종목 선택보다 장기 보유가 핵심이다. 교육 상품 홍보: 'The Irresistible Stock Market Architecture' 프로그램과 1일 세미나 'The No Number Game'을 안내한다. 영상 내 정량 수치는 가정 시나리오에 기반하며, 실제 투자 성과 보장이 아니다.
다듬은 글
Oh wow! So, today’s lads are going to tell me about Warren Buffet!? If you are like that gentleman, then please stop this video right away, you will not be able to take what is coming ahead. If you know me from before, then you know that Warren Buffet is like my God. If my mother would allow, then I would put Warren Buffet’s picture in my house temple.
Whenever I closely analyze Warren buffet’s success story, there are some shocking facts. Yes! Warren Buffet is the richest investor, but my question is, is he the best investor? And if you have an open mind and you tell me, ‘Harsh, I have the hunger to learn’, then tell me right away, what is your analysis on the success story of Warren Buffet?
Friends, what are waiting for? Put on your headphones and watch this video in isolation. Today your mind will open up! Let’s start! Hi guys! My name is Harsh Goela, I am an investor, trainer and mentor in stock market, today we are going to talk about Warren Buffet. Before that, let me tell you the importance of Warren Buffet in my life.
According to me, whatever Warren Buffet says, it becomes a quote. The reason why I came in to public speaking, the reason why I am able to look in to the camera and record in front of you, because of Warren Buffet. When I was 18, I passed out of school, entered college, I had a lot of insecurities and there was a quote on public speaking by Warren Buffet, how public speaking helped him and since then started doing public speaking and hence I am able to do it, that is the importance of Warren Buffet in my life.
Now, I will share with 3 case studies: Case 1, Case 2, Case 3 We will see all these case studies, which study Warren Buffet’s success and then we will draw a conclusion. It’s going to be very exciting! Let’s start with case number 1. There is no argument with the fact that Warren Buffet is a phenomenal investor.
What I want to know is that, has Warren Buffet reached his level because he is a good investor or he has some other secret as well? Is his investing acumen really strong or is there some other secret too? Let’s find it today. What happened in reality was that, Warren Buffet started investing at the age of 10 and when he was at the age of 30, he had 1 million dollars, and if I adjust that 1 million dollars according to today’s value after inflation, then it is 9.67 million dollars.
People are not able to make this much in their whole lifetime. Now, in this example, suppose Warren Buffet just like us, a common man, then what would be the difference? Let’s say till the age of 18, Warren Buffet did not do anything, he went to school, spent time and came back home, and reached the age of 18 doing all this.
Then from the age of 20-30, he spent his time looking for love, job and passion and let’s say at the age of 30, he earned 20 lakh rupees, meaning if you have earned 20 lakh rupees by the age of 30, then you are much higher than the average worldwide, so it’s a big amount. If I convert 20 lakh rupees in dollars, then it would $25,000, so let’s say at the age of 30, Warren Buffet is a normal man and he has $25,000.
Then it struck to him that investment is very important, so he invested from the age of 30-60 and he would stop at 60, because then he wants to retire. The hypothetical situation I took, where Warren Buffet started investing at the age of 30, if his CAGR remains the same, where he earns 19-20% every year, you know what would be the reality?
What would be his net worth? 11.9 million dollars. What is the net worth now, in real? 84.5 billion dollars. Damn! Friends, this means that, thousands of books have been written on Warren Buffet Sir, where they say he chooses shares based on this or that, I also learn from him, but one of his biggest secrets is time!
One of his major secrets is the time invested in stock market. It is not that is an awesome investor, time invested is much more. Now let’s talk about case study number 2, Let’s compare Warren Buffet to one of the best investors out there. So, I am going to compare Warren Buffet to Jim Simons. You know who Jim Simons is?
Jim Simons is one of the people who have the most brilliant investment acumen out there. How much is his CAGR return since 1988 every year? 66% Trust me, no one can even come near to 66% CAGR, and still some people say this: Boss, we have a simple target! We have to earn 10% every month, which means 120% every year and beat Jim Simons!
These kinds of people have only one solution! Bash him! Don’t leave him! In 2020, the net worth of Jim Simons was 21 billion dollars and net worth of Warren Buffet, 84.5 billion dollars, 75% less was Jim Simons, why? Jim Simons CAGR is better, investment acumen is definitely better, then why is it 75% less?
You know what the reason is? Because Jim Simons started to invest after the age of 50, whereas Warren Buffet started to invest when he was 10 years old. Jim Simons started investing money after he was 50 years old. Now let’s take Jim Simons in place of Warren Buffet, and say he had a fixed CAGR of 66% and he started investing at the of 10.
What would have been the net worth of Jim Simons? Can you guess? Come here, 63 quintillion! One minute! Let me give you a perspective here. There are 5 zeros in one lakh, 7 zeros in one crore and there are 18 zeros in one quintillion! 18 Goddamn zeros! What does Warren Buffet have? He has 70 years of time investing in stock market, which no one else has, only Warren Buffet has it.
Now, let’s talk about the case number 3. This is not even a case, this is a real life story. This story is about Rick Guerin. Rick Guerin was the third partner, Warren Buffet, Charlie Munger and Rick Guerin, all of them together started Berkshire Hathaway. In an interview, someone asked Warren Buffet, ‘Sir, what about Rick Guerin?
Where is he?’. He replied, ‘Rick was a genius. He was no less smart than me or Charlie', but there was only one difference between Rick Guerin and Charlie Munger and Warren Buffet. Let’s have Rick Guerin at one side and Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger on the other side, what was the difference? Rick Guerin was in a hurry to get rich.
Because he was in a hurry to earn money, he took a lot of leverages and hence he took a lot of margins, and between 1973 and 1974, when American markets crashed, Rick Guerin got bankrupt. Situation was so bad that Rick Guerin had to sell his Berkshire Hathaway stock to Warren Buffet at a 70% discount.
As of now, when I am recording the price of Berkshire Hathaway, it is 4,32,800 dollars. For how much did Rick Guerin sell it? $40 Friends, what are we learning from all this? I am concluding it all. What have we learnt from the conclusion from 1, 2 and 3? Time! Understand this! Leave behind your expectations.
First of all, use the power of compounding. Warren Buffet has only one secret. One secret! Power of compounding! If you look at all Warren Buffet’s investments, have all of them been the best? No! He is not a great stock picker. What is he? Warren Buffet is a great stock holder! To quote Warren Buffet, his best holding period is forever.
If you want to be the best and if you want to reach that level, don’t learn how to get an investing acumen from Warren Buffet, learn from the fact, how he uses time to his advantage. This was my entire analysis on the success story of Warren Buffet. Comment below and tell me, Harsh, what do you think?
Tell me, Harsh, if you liked it, tell me. If you say, ‘Harsh I don't agree with you’, comment below and tell me what is the issue. And to bring you this content, we work really hard, and if you want to motivate us more, click the subscribe button and hit the like button. It really really helps us a lot!
And I can’t even tell you, how much that one single click of yours matter to us. And if you want more such case studies, we have our own stock market course, ‘The Irresistible Stock Market Architecture’ program, and there is a one-day training of stock market, ‘The No Number Game’ All the links are given below.
If you are interested, if you want, ‘Harsh, I want more case studies because that is opening up my mind’, because trust me, you will learn through case studies only. I have ample case studies, click below and we will meet you at the training. Till then ladies and gentlemen, please like and subscribe, and share this video with people who are younger than you, and understand it yourself before sharing, about power of time and the power of compounding.
Well! That is it for today. My name is Harsh Goela. Give my regards to your parents, give my love to young ones. This is Goela School of Finance, financially empowering you! [Music}
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