저자: MichaelWigginsDeOliveira · 외국인
요약 보기
찰리 멍거의 투자 심리와 가치투자 원칙을 소개하는 교육 영상이며 특정 종목·자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측은 없다. 멍거식 접근: 유행 추종이나 시장 타이밍이 아닌 검증된 가치투자 경로를 따르고, 좋은 기업을 장기 보유하는 것이 핵심이라고 주장한다. 독서와 멘토: 많은 책을 읽는 것보다 올바른 책을 읽는 것이 중요하며, 멍거처럼 뛰어난 과거 투자자들을 멘토로 삼아 그들의 원칙을 따라야 한다고 말한다. 역발상 사고: 멍거는 매년 자신의 최선의 아이디어를 스스로 반박하며 틀린 이유를 찾는 습관을 가졌다고 소개한다. 원칙 세우기: 버핏의 '원금 손실 금지' 규칙 등 명확한 원칙을 세우고, 한 기업에 자본의 20% 이상을 넣지 않는 등 개인 규칙을 두라고 권한다. 편향 극복: 과신, 과지불(고평가 매수) 등 인간의 편향을 인식하고, 안전마진과 투자 후 지속적 성찰로 이를 줄여야 한다고 강조한다. 능력 범위: 이해할 수 있는 단순한 사업에 투자하고 '원숭이도 운영할 수 있는 사업'을 찾으라는 피터 린치식 조언을 언급한다. 근면과 실행: 매일 5~10분씩 꾸준히 기업을 공부하라고 권하며, 체크리스트 활용을 강조한다. 실전 팁: 재무제표에서 현금·부채와 부채 만기를 먼저 확인하고, 10-K의 유동성 항목과 리볼빙 금리(6% 이상이면 비싸다고 봄)를 점검하며, 경쟁사와의 차별점을 비교하라고 설명한다. 결론: 시장 예측이 아닌 원칙, 편향 관리, 꾸준한 기업 분석이 장기 수익의 기반이라는 메시지를 전한다.
다듬은 글
hello value investors welcome today we're going to talk about Charlie Munger and Charlie Munger's portfolio investment advice how he uses psychology to make better returns so if you new to the channel please press the subscribe button now so you can get out my next video installment and remember drop comments below and I respond to all the comments with your questions and whatever discussion however it may go so let's get started so Charlie is left as a template of how we should go about investing we do not need to reinvent the wheel we can just go down the tried-and-tested path charlie and warren have just laid out how we should go about this it's not about trying to be the smartest guy in the room while smartest killed in the room age is trying to be humble and understand that this is competitive you are competing with people in your country across the next country people that are older the new people that are younger the new people with more contacts than you people with more connections more privileges so just bear that in mind as we progress for the video stick to the value investing path we have learned over time that's straying from the path what sometimes is called speculating doesn't lead to outstanding returns because a speculator can go and he can have a he or she can have a very good period but ultimately it will go through a loss at some point and the market itself tends to follow the businesses so if the business does well over time the invest that is well over time trying to market time will not lead to superior results yet investors as mentors you can look for people such as Charlie such as Mohnish Pabrai that have gone down this route and he don't need to be a hero you just need to follow the path as a value investor so many vasa say I'm a ferocious reader and that they read a lot of books now the truth of the matter is everyone is reading a lot of books and that is gonna put you on par with everyone else it is more important to read the right books because ultimately there's only a certain number of hours in a day Charlie says that he made friends amongst the eminent dead and how trying to make himself think as a friend of down wit tried to be why not journey with him I allowed him to understand the the allowed him to understand how to look for contradictory hypotheses trying to find a reason for why he is wrong so he talks about killing his best idea each year so he looks for a reason to find out that he was wrong and this is very very attractive there is a helpful quote that we are the average of the five people we spend the most amount of time with so if you position yourself amongst value investing mentors even if these can be like voltage loss that are no longer here and you just try and follow those rules like Walter has I have ruled it don't sell into the bad news everyone else is trying to sell into the bad news don't play that game so yes you're gonna make investment mistakes but but try to understand that just part of the nature to our child part of the course so when Buffett comes to investing here he has rules that it can jokes but these are real rules so probable rule number one don't lose capital rule number two don't forget rule number one so what Charlie talks about having these understanding our biases as investors as people and how to overcome them and we overcome them by understanding our tendencies understanding human nature so the way to go about this is to try to to stick to a circle of competence try to invest in businesses that are simple so a quote that sometimes gets Mis attributed to Warren is how to compete a Lynch that is invest in a business that even a monkey can run because one day a monkey will run their business now when Buffett's Hill do we made a mistake in investing in IBM the idea was the IBM is an entrenched business it should work out there's always a doubt that it will work out but it should work out so it's just going along this type of idea like his investment in an Apple is the same is an entrenched business you know Apple is the core of the technology technological revolution so this is just going well the Buffett Rule books so having rules understanding the biases that we accumulate and trying to avoid them by having a margin of safety and by reflecting a lot whenever we make an investment next this is along the same path so as investors it's very important not to get carried away Conor McGregor says the worst thing for a fighter is not losing the fight but winning the fight will become overconfident so that's another bias how do we be how do we overcome being overconfident how do we overcome the problem of of overpaying for business it's gonna happen you know and john templeton says that the best analyst is only right two out of three times that means in the best case a third 33% of time the best analyst is gonna be wrong and and so you gotta incorporate that into your investment portfolio you gotta figure out that certain rules one rule that I use is that don't put more than 20% of the capital into any business no matter how luring the story is no matter how cheap the stock is just have these rules that you set up face up I can tell you all my rules but they're not gonna help you as investor you have a different temperament to me you have a different horizon to me you have a different risk tolerance to me you might understand um I don't know like utilities couldn't figure that out so just try to say no be very very selective in what you invest in because ultimately the failure rate is so high what are the profession is a person able to fail close to 50% of time and still do tremendously well over time so let's move on here's a quote that is not from Charlie Munger is a quote from Winston Churchill but I believe that Churchill is is a pillar for our souls oh so I believe that it is appropriate here uh Churchill wrote this when he was approximately 23 years old and he wrote it would you rise in the world you must work while others amuse themselves so you need to be determined to work hard if you value rest if you value sleep more than you want to succeed this is not gonna work this is not a path for you investing is very very much hard work it's relentless it doesn't stop on Saturday he doesn't stop because it's a bank holiday there's people all the time coming up and trying to be smarter working harder so you have to even work even harder how can you work harder than someone else you have to think after it's not about being brute forces about smart force so try to follow as many businesses as you can so when M when Buffett was starting out he went for the Moody's manual four times if you can look this up online the Moody's manual is so so damn thick and the Moody's manual font is so small and there was a back when he was going for the Moonies manual which is approximately I'm in the ballpark of nineteen fifty and there were a lot more public businesses so it it nowadays it is like something like 3,500 public businesses in the US and probably listed businesses so it was it he was cooling through that and he went through the proxy I think four times so he just started he jokes about this in him in an interview online you can look it up with with rose and he basically says that jokingly that he starts with a and goes on to be but that is the mentality that you just have to work and you have to follow so the way that I think it's the way to do this is to do it little and do it often so for instance spend five or ten minutes each day trying to learn a business just try to kind of understand it can be business you already know very well like Apple whatever but just it's important to do it consistently there's no point doing let's say being a weekend investor spending a lot of time on Saturday and Sunday and then forgetting everything for all the week cuz you know things were life got in the way you have to kind of plug away five ten minutes each day so Charlie Munger talks about the importance of checklists so he talks about you know I'm a pilot having a checklist he talks about an ocean or going into outer space having a checklist this is the luck the kind of due diligence that you need to have in the back of mind so your checklist would most likely be there for the mind my checklist is things that I've made mistakes blunders that I've made in the past and I'm just trying to learn because your knowledge has compounded over time so here's one tip for example whenever I look at any business like any business the first thing I go to balance sheet I just want to figure out right up how much cash how much debt I just want to figure out when that death is due I just want to straight away go food a balance sheet spend ten seconds on it and then I'll go through it a little bit more detail I'll look at and if you look at the 10k you can look on the liquidity and you can go through and just figure out have they drawn down on the revolver how much is the revolver the interest rate is it high it could be if it's high at this time if if it's higher than six percent you know that that that is expensive so the creditors must not believe that the business is particularly safe that's why did the money such a high interest rate so go through the 10k spend a bit of time familiarizing yourself with the bottle sure that's the first thing another thing that I that I'll do because it's just so easy just try to look at it not number one number two competitor just trying to stand what distinguish business a from B and C what is the advantage and disadvantage of a versus B and C just because a business is smaller does not mean it will catch up to the to the larger competitor and vice versa just because the the top competitor is the leader in that sector does not necessarily mean it makes for a better investment so these two things balance sheet and competition so just before we wrap up here we talked about looking for someone smarter mental models biases how being hard-working being humble and the importance of checklists I hope you found out you video useful and as always this is our volume person journey please subscribe thank you for watching
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