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피터 린치식 가치투자 전략은 과거(1970~80년대 쇼핑몰 기반 성장 기업 중심) 환경에서 유효했으나, 현대 시장에서는 그대로 적용하기 어렵다는 주장. 린치 전략의 핵심은 주가수익비율(PE)보다 낮은 가격에 성장성 있는 기업을 사는 것이며, PEG 비율(PE÷성장률)이 1 미만이면 매력적이라고 설명. 예: PE 20, 성장률 30% → PEG 0.67 (매력적), PE 20, 성장률 10% → PEG 2 (비매력적). 린치 전략의 한계로 시대 변화에 따른 성장 기업 유형 변화와 쇼핑몰형 사업모델의 쇠퇴를 지적. 워런 버핏의 IBM 투자 실패 사례를 들어, 자신의 역량 범위(circle of competence) 안에 머무르되 적응력을 가져야 한다고 강조. 개인 투자자가 모든 산업을 깊이 알기 어려우므로, 불확실성에 대비해 더 큰 안전마진(margin of safety)을 확보해야 한다는 결론. 특정 종목에 대한 매수·매도 추천은 없음.
다듬은 글
hello Valley investors thank you for joining me in today's video I want to talk about P Hilditch and why is investment strategy he's not particularly applicable in today's modern market so if you knew the channel please subscribe now so you can get my next video installment this is our valiant person journey let's get started if you're watching this video I assume that you know who Peter Lynch is and I'll assume that you know that he was investing the Majella fund and that he threw out his 13 years as a compounded annual rate of 30% this by far and wise put him in the wall of fame all the top investors ever so why is this particular strategy not so clickable today so if you look back and you read one up on Wall Street you'll see the period that Peter Lynch was investing in so he was investing from approximately 72 I think the fund was closed for the first two years to investors to kind of just get a track record go in and then I think it kind of might have started in 74 I believe it might have been so out and if we run till the end of the 80s now that point in time when the US was protected by mostly the US and is particularly investing in companies that had business models there were very well predisposed to massive expansion so I barber shops and this sort of shops that work very well inside a mall so he could go and you could visit the mall and pretty much would works in a mall in one area could be pretty much put across many different moles in the United States Walmart this kind of idea now that problem is that there has been an over expansion over time or more shops furthermore if you look today we knew the brick-and-mortar is really shriveled so it's the message that things change all the time this you have to adapt you have to kind of know very well what is your circle competence however you cannot stay within that circle competence forever look at Buffett with his migration over to Apple yes you can justify that Apple is a consumer business you can say that iBM is an entrenched business but all the time you have to adopt it when when perfect originally made his investment in IBM he said jokingly I've been watching this business for 40 years and I believe now is the best time and that did not work out so favorably that is not in any way to push down Buffett is simply to say that adaptability of his mind so over time you have to go out of your comfort zone us why Charlie Munger calls Buffett the learning machine because he keeps on learning so we have to learn the same so you all know your circle of competence but he gotta be willing to adapt that so going back to the Peter Lynch and his investment shortly I'm a big fan of Peter Lynch and I get the absolute core of the strategy it's a volley strategy I know that there are some some aspects of it that you could say always a growth averse but by by a stretch you know this is kind of just getting bit nuanced and I do also delineate some of it as a growth and something that is a value but what we're all trying to do essentially is buy something for less than it could be worth so what I do like very much about Peter Lin strategy is that assumption that if you buying something on a smaller ratio or p/e ratio or p/e multiple price to earnings multiple then it's growing at like a make for a very strong investment for example something is priced on a PE of 20 that means you pay $20 you get in $1 in earnings but if that investment about business he's growing a let's say 30% for instance say that's a very good return because you got your price to earnings say a penny or $20 can $1.00 in earnings but that that dollar is growing at 30% in this example so if you do this 20/30 you can see it's less than 1 that is a reasonable investment you know that's found a PEG ratio is less than 1 that's particularly interesting conversely if you're saying that a business is growing at 10% and you're paying a PE of 20 so that 20 divided by 10 is known as an attractive business over 1 so you're gonna try to consider they grow for the business so Peter Lynch's idea is absolutely spot-on trying to get a business that is growing faster then it's multiple implies so that's right but it's not so clickable is that you as an investor can go and familiarize yourself either online or elsewhere with a product you can't possibly know the nuance of every sort of product you might be an engineer in a SAS world but if you despise a stockholder every day it kind of you know it's it's a competitive market if you haven't got a lot of diversification let's say you know a lot about cars okay youyou like Tesla Tesla like your thing okay fine no comments on Tesla but you might have an investment Tesla but you can Husson that versification so how do you get around that so it all circles back to demand in a circle of competence and the money not margin or safety so you intrinsically understand okay I need to buy something of a large margin of safety but I'm never gonna know everything about the business consequently I need a larger margin safety for that uncertainty that unknown so in summary I very much look to people into the mental and his PEG ratio is very strong he helps you he'd pretty much cut through a lot of noise however it's very difficult you as an investor to know about every sort of business because you might end up in a niche and that niche and go for some very difficult times so you have to go back have a large margin searched II hope you found this video useful I'll see you soon
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