저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
요약 보기
인플레이션 최악은 지나갔다고 보며 금리 3회 인상 가능성은 낮게 본다. 유가(브렌트 약 88~90달러)와 이란 분쟁 긴장 속에서도 시장은 충돌이 억제될 것으로 믿고 있으나, 10년물 국채와 엔화 등 안정적으로 보이는 시장은 불안정한 균형이라 경고한다. AI 인플레이션은 생산성 성장에 필요해 수용 가능하며, AI 인프라는 향후 3~4년 내 과잉 투자가 나타날 가능성이 크다. 예측 시장과 레버리지 ETF 확대로 접근성이 높아진 점에 대해서는 사회적 영향은 크지 않다고 평가한다.
다듬은 글
I'm going to move on to the markets, but on the way to moving on to the markets, I'm going to ask you a question about market forecasting. Right. I'm actually curious when you hear these numbers that we just talked about and just the sheer number of people that are playing the markets right now , uh, and that's in addition to, you know, the president's teleprompter operator.
Um, what do you think about this in terms of what's happening in the market? So, from the perspective of a mere animal spirit, does that say anything? Is it good or bad that everyone wants to trade on everything now? I think what this says, and we've seen it with leveraged ETFs, we've seen it with everything, is that if you lower the barriers to entry in markets where there's significant growth potential, you're going to get a significant reaction.
But is there significant growth potential? Because one of the things we constantly learn in prediction markets is that most people lose. Right. But if you ask an individual fan, well, they're going to think, " Look at the plane going to Las Vegas compared to the plane coming back from Las Vegas." I always compare people who fly there, happy , they look at the positives, and those who come back understand the reality of the odds, okay?
But people like to bet on tickets. Yeah, they really like the fact that you lower the barriers to entry and can bet on so many different aspects of the game, it allows people to think, “Oh, I specialize in this area. I am going to win in this field." I fully understand that these numbers do not surprise me at all .
But do you think this is good or bad in the long run? I mean, this is a really complicated question, okay? Yes, we have some time. Right. Um, do I think the social implications aren't very big. And you also see it in lottery numbers. Those who are inclined to bet are those who are least able to guarantee losses, okay?
But in general, I think that access to markets is good. And if it provides greater access to markets, that's good. Speaking of markets, one of the things that is exciting right now is that the fighting in Iran is ongoing. Unfortunately, another service member died in the process. But one of the things we're looking at this morning is oil...
We're at about 80... I don't know if we can turn this board around now... 88... 88... You're looking at Brent at 88 and crude at 82. And yet, by the way, stocks, although obviously Friday wasn't a very good day, are up this morning. Does this make sense to you? And when I went to bed last night, Brent was around the 90s.
Around the 90s. Listen, we talked about this last week. The fundamental view in the market is that these escalations will be contained. And that was tested this weekend because, unfortunately, and this is tragic, we lost service members. There has been an increase in attacks from both sides, but the market continues to believe it.
I think the biggest contrast, and Joe is talking about the determination gap, is between really volatile news and relatively stable markets. And this combination is very impressive. Usually, such a combination is not observed at all . And even if you look at the so- called stable markets, this is an unstable equilibrium.
Whether it's 10- year Treasury bonds or the yen. So, it's an exciting time because everything is in balance, but it's very unstable. Regarding inflation, where do you think we are ? What do you think will happen? And how do you think someone like Kevin Warsh should think about all of this? Hmm, I'm not thrilled that we need three rate hikes.
I don't think we'll get any rate hikes. I think the worst of inflation is over. So do you think we'll actually see a significant decline in inflation this fall, this winter? What's your... Yeah, I mean, one caveat is oil prices. And the regular price today is above four, and diesel fuel is above five.
And I'm keeping an eye on these two prices. I look at them every day. But if you look at tariff inflation, which is already behind us, most of the oil inflation is already behind us. AI inflation is inflation I can live with, because I truly believe that productivity growth depends on it . And will it decline because there are so many different details missing right now to make this whole ecosystem work at all?
And the question is, how long do you think this will last on one side? And then, by the way, there's the flip side: do you think there will be excessive construction on the other side? So, there will likely be overbuilding , because every innovation tends to be exaggerated in the initial phases. We can consider fiber optics.
I…I can take you back to each individual innovation. Years from now, when you wake up one morning and say, "Okay, there's overbuilding going on. " Probably in 3-4 years. So, yes. So this could take quite a while. It's possible, but we're talking to technical experts , and they believe it's almost impossible to determine where it will end up.
Right. OK? And for that matter, we simply have no imagination. Is this different from the late 90s with fiber optic cable or some other technology? I don't remember, and I should...We should go back and, for example, get the tapes. When you talk to CEOs of companies that are building fiber optic cables , do they say, “Oh, yeah, we’re just building, you know, there’s an end state here.
We're going to do this for another year or two, then we'll, you know, put in the railroad tracks, and everything will be fine, and this will stop." This is not true. It's like we're going to be laying railroad tracks forever, and by the way, we're going to have to constantly upgrade them. Yeah, I heard you say, you know, where is the endpoint, and a lot of people say there is no endpoint.
And there is a perfect reason for this. It's not just a universal technology like electricity. This is what James Manyika of Google calls the inventor of inventions. Hmm. Am I completely recursively improving myself? Right. This constantly allows more and more to happen, and it is very difficult to predict.
So I think the end point is almost impossible to predict. Apart from what I believe will be in higher performance, but also in the many glitches that come with it .
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