저자: 미상 · 외국인
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AMC 반등 후 기술적 분석 중심 영상. 주요 주장: AMC 주간 RSI가 코로나 저점보다 낮아 바닥 신호, 1달러 지지 방어 필요, 125/150/180 저항 단계. IWM은 컵앤핸들 돌파 후 리테스트 중이며 50일 EMA 지지가 중요. GME는 주간 200선 아래로 밀려 단기 약세, 갭 메우기(약 21.9~21.3) 가능성 언급. GME 워런트는 상승 추세선·200일선 지지 여부가 관건. 장기적으로는 기관 매집을 근거로 낙관적 입장.
다듬은 글
[singing] So, welcome back traders. Not wearing that Okay. Couldn't see anything. Um, I just want to talk about AMC GameStop and the broader market index IWM because you saw a lot a lot of movement today and specifically wanted to give a shout out to JLT. Not going to say the name. You guys see it. Um, and his post about uh Michael Bur actually the big short bought more GameStop today which I thought was fascinating.
Uh, and it now encompasses 13% of his overall position or portfolio. Uh, Greg's Kitty also mentioned uh the big short accumulating GameStop shares and I thought that was fascinating. We went on a tangent today so make sure to follow us on Twitter uh before we start the video. to slap the subscribe button and let's go into AMC to start because AMC saw at one point a 12% rally today.
Uh and Trend Spider was making a joke out of it. Mark's under pressure. So naturally, it's a meme stock season, baby. And that's exactly what you saw, right? You saw a nice size bounce off of AMC uh from the bottoms here. And when you look at right, we'll pull up the Weeble chart. When you look at the daily on the label chart, you see an inverted bullish hammer candle.
Now, if I look that up, inverted bullish hammer candle, that is so often the bottom of a trend showing uh sellers exhaustion, right? So, that is ideally what it looks like and that's what we got on AMC today. So, very very good sign. The only bummer was that you failed to hold above the 9-day EMA, but the 9-day EMA is beginning to curl up for the first time in what feels like a long time, over a month, right?
So, good deal, good volume, and good candle close. So, I'll take that. And you're up in after hours trading. Seems like the whole market's getting a little bit of a rally going into tomorrow, which is a good sign for tomorrow's open. We called this out on our discord which is free to join. Uh that you had some bullish divergence on AMC before this launched uh and it was on the five minute was also on the 30.
Uh you saw a higher low on the RSI lower low on the stock before you saw a pretty nice sized move from the bottom to the top. You ran around 15 and a half% and since then have seen a retracement into the $1 territory. Now on AMC, this is a general uh it's a big deal, right? It's kind of a big deal because when you look at the gap [snorts] fill that you made at $1, you've now filled that.
But what I'd like to see from buyers, right, you need to defend this $1 territory. And I say that because if you fail, right, you're just making a higher low in perspective to this. You're a higher low and you're inevitably most likely going to make a lower low. So you need this to be your moment. You need this to be your bottom, right?
When you look at the broader scheme of things, look at the sell-off, right? And then go to AMC and go to the weekly time frame. Look at where you are traders. Not only do you have your weekly RSI lower than COVID lows, which is crazy, right? in itself is crazy. Just gonna give you guys the perspective real quick.
Zoom out when in doubt. Zoom out. And you see that you are lower in the RSI. We'll make a horizontal trend line. Uh the relative strength index. You've officially marked your low and now you're beginning to curl up a little bit. Now, if this strength holds, right, maybe we see a deal with Iran or at least some positive direction.
I expect this thing to get a little squeezy. I do. And I think that because when you get these beachball bounce moves, right, coming from out of oversold territory and you gain the momentum, right, you break the falling wedge you've been in since January. You break the RSI midband that you've been underneath since October, guys, since the beginning of this move, right?
When you cross down, that spelled a minus 67%. 67. Not doing that joke. you know, uh, it spelled a minus 67%. That's terrible, right? You look at the MACD and you also showing strength. You're about to cross to the upside. You looked at the last time you got a cross. You got a nice 67% now 60% move, right?
So that is a beautiful, beautiful thing for the overall momentum trajectory because if you get that bounce right, there's a possibility here that you see a break and a hard one at that uh to your previous all-time low. We saw a little bit of a bare flag here and then a dump which hopefully right hopefully can give you enough momentum to swing out because it once you break this trend line guys, sorry not that one.
Once you break this overarching trend line on AMC is when things get very very crazy or can right. This is your all-time trend line for the stock. You created this during your squeeze up in June of 2021 and have held underneath since. You've had candles close above it, but you've inevitably always failed to hold above.
And once you freaking gap down here like crazy, you have not tested it until you got slammed in September. [snorts] So, what I'm watching for here is on the daily time frame, you have a beautiful, beautiful, beautiful close on AMC. You see this falling wedge you've been in, right? Respecting the highs and the lows.
You've now made a freaking outstanding candle on great volume. Your next step, guys, is claiming the 9-day EMA and closing above. Because if you guys can do that, you are going to see this thing ride the worm hopefully right out of this falling wedge. And we all know when AMC breaks out of falling wedges, you break hard, right?
That has just been the trend. This is a symmetrical triangle or a bull flag. But try to find a falling wedge for you guys. Um, there was one in the past here, but I'm not going to bring it up. We're going to keep m keep moving, [snorts] keep rocking and rolling. Right. So, that's what I expect for sometime this week is you're going to break this falling wedge and hopefully clear these highs.
You have resistance currently at the following trend line. Uh, what is that high? 125 is one resistance. that I expect you to bump your head on. I like to call them shelves, right? Because you're going up and you're going to bump your head, retrace, and then go higher. Uh you have another shelf at 150 and then one more shelf before $2 at 180 or 179.
So, those are your three price levels to watch on AMC if you are looking to ride this thing higher. And I do think you're going to see some positive momentum this week if you don't get rugpulled, right? Because today AMC over uh performed or outperformed the broader market. As you can see here on the daily time frame, IWM, SPY, right?
All these broader index funds were all red today. Very, very nasty red. So, what I expect to happen, let's pull this up on IWM. What I expect to happen if you fail to close the week, right, if you fail to close the week above this 50-day EMA, that is cause for concern because that would lead to, right, this kind of flush move because you're going to have the 9-day cross the 50 and once that happens, traders, you saw the biggest move happened during the sell-off down 2%, you got the cross officially and then 9.61% 61% one week and then a further flush before you Vshape out of it.
I would like to see this level hold. In fact, you wicked off of it today perfectly seeing uh 3 23961, right? That's your that's your close. Your low was 23869. So, you wked slightly below the 50 today and then closed above. So, I'd really really like to see this hold. You see the volume on the week so far very very small but we'll see how that develops.
Um beyond that you zoom out on IWM and it also looks great but I may just be a uh beyond bullish person. I promise you I try to stay as optimistic but also pessimistic and really really doubtful. And when you look at the structure of this IWM play, right, when you think of risk on season, you think of uh a lot of the small cap stocks squeezing.
In fact, you're up 1.66% overnight, which is crazy to think about on IWM. But this looks to me like a cup and handle or it looks to me like a broken out of cup and handle with a back test of the neckline. Now, whatever that happens, traders, let's say, right, let's move this up. Let's say you're just retesting this previous all-time high or you come all the way back, right, and you retest this one or this one.
Inevitably, I do believe the best is yet to come for risk on assets. And I do think you're going to bounce out of here very, very hard. and Vline very similarly to how you did here because the market guys when you go to uh IWM and you go to uh the RSI relative strength index you can start to see a story here you go to Yep daily and you can already see on the daily time frame I didn't plan this I'm just assuming because this has been the freaking trend right you see hidden bullish divergence lower low on the stock and you see a higher low on the daily RSI.
That is a good sign for the buyers showing that the strength of the stock even though you're selling off is relatively higher than it was back here and that things are beginning to shape up for a reversal. So, that's a good sign for the broader market and the broader market being in that um trajectory, right?
Once this swings back up, I expect AMC, GameStop, NEO to all follow with it because the fact that you have been holding right right around this dollar target while the broader market has dumped I think is some strength. It's a good sign. Now, you do have the gap fill currently sitting at 22632. that I would say raises uh a little bit of a alarm for me that you might see a broader market flush down to here down to that gap fill and then bounce out because what I always will say and what the word is uh words of wisdom right just as fast as things dump they can pump just as fast right you see this very low um and long selloff 24 days, 9%.
You then look at the next couple of trading days, 20 days, 11%. So, just as fast as this thing will dump, you can see buyers step back in and push this thing higher. Uh, as it happens time and time and time and time and time and time and time. Let's just make an example out of this. and time and time and time and time and time and time and time again.
So, I would not be surprised to see that happen at all. In fact, I think our thesis is still valid. So, that's IWM. Sorry, I left so much meat on the table there for IWM. We'll go into GameStop uh next, but I really really cannot say enough how good of a candle today was. And when you go to the weekly time frame for AMC, look at how close you are right to crossing on that weekly MACD.
That is my favorite indicator for momentum swing trading. So, watching that very closely for AMC uh IWM holding the 50-day EMA. Let's just change that to GME and let's rock and roll. Right. So, GameStop about to get you crossed down to the weekly MACD and you failed to hold the weekly 200. You've wicked into it and now you're creating some kind of dogee this week so far, right?
You've perfectly wicked and closed beneath it here as well. Not a good look, right? Not a look good, not a good look for GameStop, but I do believe in the fundamentals of this play and when you look at the broader market, that's AMC. When you look at the broader market and you watch what the big players, right, the institutions and the big buyers are doing, they're accumulating the absolute crud out of the stock.
So, I do believe in the long-term trajectory, it just might not look the best in the short term, and that's okay, right? you see this kind of flag formation. I don't know if it broke yet. We're going to find out. Um me see this kind of channel, right? Uh so it is possible to see relief in the short term if the broader market does, but I do expect this to cross down.
Whether or not it is some kind of flirt crossown, we'll we'll have to wait and see, right? But keeping in mind on the daily time frame, you do have a gap that you are literally sitting right on top of. Currently sitting at 2193 and 2125. I expect those both to fill in my opinion. Now, this would not be nearly the worst case scenario, but I do expect it to happen, right?
Uh volume ramp up today a little bit, not much. So, that's kind of a nothing burger. And then on the monthly, your monthly candle is really also nothing burger and very very low volume. So that is actually kind of promising as tomorrow is the last trading day of the month. So to see us close this low in volume allows for buyers to then step in and push this thing higher, right?
So that's that's also interesting to look at. Um yeah, not great. death cross on the daily below the 9-day EMA and trending into the gap fills. So until you fill those gaps, expect this thing to go a little bit lower. We do have that very very important trend line that is newly established below the gap fills.
So you had one, two, and this would be your third bounce off of this trend line. If that happens, right, you have a technical three uh rising valleys. higher low, higher, higher high, higher low, higher high, and then a higher low. Right? So, if that happens, you have the opportunity to ride this thing a little bit higher for what becomes a little bit of a broader a broader uh megaphone pattern, right?
So depending on where this thing tops out, you have the opportunity to take this thing from the low of 20 or 19, wherever it bottoms to all the way up here by the gap fill upwards of 28 to 30 to 72, right? Anything can happen once you get this thing rolling. So that's what we're watching for on GameStop.
That's what we're watching for. Um, beyond that, I did want to talk about the warrants because the warrants had some crazy price action uh a couple days ago and my boy Ollie in Paradise waiting for that update. GME Warrence um wow what a weird weird chart. So on the GME warrants, right, you of course you have this very very valid uptrend depending on where you draw it, right?
You I could totally draw it here and say that you've retested it and failed or you could say, "All right, you actually just pulling back to the original one, two, three." And and if if that's the case, right, the thing looks amazing because you've not only touched the trend line, but you've also tapped the 200 day EMA.
Now, you're finding a little bit of a relief uh and surviving this cross of the 9 through the 50, which is your shortterm overpowering your midterm uh momentum. However, right, you're basing at this 200. You need to see a hard shaped launch off of it, right? Vline out of this. Otherwise, it's very likely that the nine comes crashing crashing down and smacks the candle beneath this trend line.
If that happens, right, you're going to fill the gap sitting currently at 329. If that happens, it's great opportunity, right? But, uh, not financial advice. That's just what I'm looking at on this broader uh, warrant stock. Now, you did have a little bit of a rising wedge formation. So, part of me, right, part of me believes that it is possible to do one of these little false breakout and then back into the rising wedge, maybe chop around and then break down.
It'd be a little bit of a weird structure, right? Because typically when you false break out, you do break out. But taking the draw down, this would be your price target on that breakdown, right? Theoretically somewhere around this low of 250. So, we just have to wait and see on on the warrants. It's really really hard to predict this stock because it is so freaking fresh, guys.
Uh it's a it's a baby stock. You don't have a lot of price action to gauge this thing from. You can gauge the volume. So this bearish volume coming out here not a good sign when you look at the fact that the last two breaks of the volume trend have been actually this one was kind of one two candles of bearish and then uh the bulls overpowered and stepped in.
But when you look at the general trend here if there was ever a point for the bulls to step it again it's right now. So that's what I expect. I expect something to happen volatile whether you break or go up. I don't think you're just going to trade sideways forever. So, that is the G. Yeah, the GME warrants for you guys.
I think that's all for today. So, God bless each and every single one of your families. Make sure to slap the like button, slap the subscribe button, and have a wonderful rest of your day. Um, share it with everyone you know, and uh, let's rock and roll, apes. Peace.
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