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err from here when does this market crack well we don't know when he cracks and to be fair to me just around the election I said that the market would first go up because that the Trump victory would be positive for stocks and not negative and now now we're past the victory where we're close to the end of the first hundred days yes the point I want to make is that we are in the euphoric stage your previous commentator suspect people are piling into stocks I want to buy stocks and people are piling out of stocks right with an excelent and right now and this I maintain for a while european stocks and emerging market stocks are far more attractive than US stocks keep in mind the S&P is up 6% year today spain is up 20 italy 12% india 18% singapore 14% korea 16% and mexico who has been attacked by mr.
trump so badly he's up 19% all in US dollar terms well understood so i don't think that the rally in US stocks is such a great deal in addition to that it's driven by a few very expensive stocks from netflix tesla and of course mark let me ask you this what's the biggest risk to this market right now you mentioned trump euphoria which is certainly a piece of the puzzle but as the gentleman mentioned he hasn't actually gotten anything through so maybe this tax reform tomorrow coming is sort of a last-ditch effort if he doesn't do that is that the biggest risk well the point is no tax reform deficit will go up with tax reform that is it will go more so both scenarios are not particularly bombs friendly I'm still of the view that we are eight years into an economic engine eight years into an stock market bull market and I think that recession is overdue but some bull markets can last fourteen or fifteen years correct that's what I'm saying Trump has no principles he has now gone back before he wanted to audit the Fed and basically attacked mrs.
Yellen now he will go a meal in front of mrs. Yellen and said please don't increase interest rates please keep on printing money I'm sorry mark one of our traders wants to jump in here let's toss it over to Scott yeah market Scott in Chicago and I have a question you've been saying essentially the same thing since by my reckoning 2012 and been consistently wrong since then and on today today we have the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq Composite hitting all-time highs Nasdaq Composite above 6,000 the S&P is up nearly 1% today so if somebody piled in in 2012 or 13 or 14 or 15 they had done pretty well why were you so wrong then and why should we think you're right now well actually to correct you I wonder the correction in 2012 and we had 120 percent no I yes correct I tell you when all its over people love me for having warned them to have all their money into in stock and that musical memory will always attack me but in 2009 much more parented by dogs well that's great but in 2012 and 13 and 14 and 15 and 16 you said sell because it's going to crash and so people have missed more of the recovery than they would have caught if they bought in 2009 and sold in 2012 and I'm asking just a simple question what about your analysis was wrong in 2012 13 14 15 16 that that leads you to believe that your your-your-your more informed now well the market is far higher and the bull market has lost it a very long time and I have to also correct one point you're making in 2007 2012 I was relatively positive about bonds and I argued that the emerging markets would go up strongly and some emerging markets have a clip on up vertically and bonds have actually performed quite well there was recently a study done about how well individuals do in this market and as you can your self see many institutions in fact 80% of them have underperformed the market what about the hedge fund index and you're accusing me of being wrong I love party okay mark I have a question for you too we're talking and I'm not I am just changing the channel tiny bit here you we've talked about the price of the stock market am I to assume that you believe the under the underpinning economic fundamentals are awful in this country right now and is there something President Trump can do to push us more in the right direction of course I'm leaning toward are these tax cuts gonna help would capital gains tax cuts help would things like that help in your opinion I don't think so I think the US economy and Western economies in general or terminally sick and we have since 2007 before the crisis essentially almost doubled global pecks as a percent of GDP we have a huge debt load the US has run a deficit for as long as the eye can see the conditions today are more fragile than they were ever devote and unless somebody comes and introduces minus five percent interest rates which is a tax on the wealthy people I think the economy is really not in such a great shape I'm actually amazed that people are so optimistic we've you know got Consumer Sentiment Survey mark let me ask you this if you are not optimistic about the United States as a market fine what are you buying right now you mentioned some of the emerging markets that have you know gun straight up I'm assuming you want to avoid those where is the growth opportunity what should investors be looking at right now well basically as I mentioned to you India this year is up 18% in US dollar terms I think India still relatively I have to say relatively attractive I would rather than buy stocks like tomorrow I would rather build up cash position and essentially invest in Euros I think the euro is attractive very depressed I think european stocks are relatively attractive and among the stock markets detectors I think infiltrate sensitive stocks infrastructure place will do reasonably well great are EITS will do relatively well and consumer staples and I think all these hot stocks don't forget I mean people in fund management they never remember anything blackberry was the leader in smartphones nokia was the leader for many years in phones where are they today when Dorothy are very uncertain and the prices you pay for these new technologies are extremely high sure one wood will survive like IBM survived the IBM hasn't done anything for years mark always great to have you on the show thank you for yours and you've been saying essentially the same thing since by my reckoning 2012 and been consistently wrong since then and on today today we have the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq Composite hitting all-time highs Nasdaq Composite above 6,000 the S&P is up nearly 1% today so if somebody piled in in 2012 or 13 or 14 or 15 they had done pretty well why were you so wrong then and why should we think you're right now well actually to correct you I want of a correction in 2012 and we had 120 percent no I yes correct I tell you when all its over people love me for having warned them to have all the money into in stocks and a music you always attack me but it do well that's great but in 2012 and 13 and 14 and 15 and 16 you said sell because it's going to crash and so people have missed more of the recovery than they would have caught if they bought in 2009 and sold in 2012 and I'm asking just a simple question what about your analysis was wrong in 2012 13 14 15 16 that that leads you to believe that your your your your more informed now well the market is far higher and the bull market has lost is a very long time and I have to also correct one point you're making in 2007 2012 I was relatively positive about bonds and I argued that the emerging markets would go up strongly and some emerging markets have actually gone up vertically and bonds have actually performed quite well there was recently a study done about how well individuals do in this market and as you can your self see many institutions in fact 80% of them have underperformed the market what about the hedge fund index and you're accusing me of being wrong I love Patti okay mark I have a question for you - we're talking and I'm not I am just changing the channel tiny bit here you we've talked about the price of the stock market am I to assume that you believe the under the underpinning economic fundamentals are awful in this country right now and is there something President Trump can do to push us more in the right direction of course I'm leaning toward are these tax cuts gonna help with capital gains tax cuts help would things like that help in your opinion I don't think so I think the US economy and Western economies in general are terminally sick and we have since 2007 before the crisis essentially almost doubled global debts as a percent of GDP we have a huge debt load the US has run a deficit for as long as the eye can see the conditions today are more fragile than they were ever before and unless somebody comes and introduces minus 5% interest rates which is a tax on the wealthy people I think the Karim is really not in such a great shape I'm actually amazed that people are so optimistic if you know got consumer sentiment service mark let me ask you this if you are not optimistic about the United States as a market fine what are you buying right now you mentioned some of the emerging markets that have you know gone straight up I'm assuming you want to avoid those where is the growth opportunity what should investors be looking at right now well basically as I mentioned to you India this year is up 18 percent in US dollar terms I think in still relatively I have to say relatively attractive I would rather than buy stocks like tomorrow I would rather build up cash position and essentially invest in Euros I think the euro is attractive very depressed I think european stocks are relatively attractive and among the stock markets the fella and suppose mark let me ask you this what's the biggest risk this market right now you mentioned trump euphoria which is certainly a piece of the puzzle but as the gentleman mentioned he hasn't actually gotten anything through so maybe this tax reform tomorrow coming is sort of a last-ditch effort if he doesn't do that is that the biggest risk well the point is no tax reform deficit will go up with tax reform deficit will go even up more so both scenarios are not particularly bombs friendly I'm still of the view that we are eight years into the economic engine eight years into an stock market bull market and I think that recession is overdue but some bull markets can last fourteen or fifteen years correct that's what I was saying from have no principles he has now gone back before he wanted to audit the Fed and basically attacked mrs.
Yellen now he will go a meal in front of mrs. Yellen and said please don't increase interest rates please keep on printing money I'm sorry mark one of our traders wants to jump in here let's toss it over to Scott yeah market Scott in Chicago and I have a question here from here when does this market crack well we don't know when he cracks and to be fair to me just around the election I said that the market would first go up because that the Trump victory would be positive for stocks and not negative and now victory now we're past the victory where we're close to the end of the first hundred days yes the point I want to make is that we are in the euphoric stage your previous commentator says that people are piling into stocks I want to buy stocks when people are piling out of stocks right when the an excelling and right now and these are maintained for a while european stocks and emerging market stocks are far more attractive than US stocks keep in mind the S&P is up 6% year today spain is up 20 italy 12% india 18% singapore 14% korea 16% and mexico who has been attacked by mr.
trump so badly he's up 19% all in US dollar terms well understood so I don't think that rally in US stocks is such a great deal in addition to that it's driven by a few very expensive stocks from Netflix
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