저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: 기술주 주도력은 약해지고 에너지·금융·경기민감주가 새 주도주로 부상하며, 미국 경기 회복은 강하고 인플레이션 우려는 과소평가되어 있다는 주장. [시장 주도주 전환] - 기술주 중심 장세가 끝나고 에너지·금융·경기민감(cyclical)주가 새 리더십으로 등장 중이라고 진단. - 경기민감주가 성장주로 전환될 수 있어 전통 성장주가 상대적으로 매력이 떨어진다고 봄. - 한국·중국·일본 증시가 먼저 반등을 주도했고, 칠레와 미국 경기민감주가 뒤따르는 흐름. [인플레이션·금리] - 과거 12년간 인플레이션이 시장 사고에서 사실상 사라져 금리·기대인플레이션에 과민 반응하는 상태. - 에너지·원자재 상승으로 CPI가 오르는 것은 진짜 인플레이션이 아니라고 봄. 연준의 관심은 기대인플레이션 고정(anchor) 변화. - 경기가 뜨겁게 달아오를 수 있으나 연준의 방향을 강제하지는 않을 것이라 봄. 채권시장이 연준을 시험하고 있다는 점은 핵심 쟁점으로 언급. [유럽·가치주] - 유럽 레버리지 가치주(특히 화학), 유럽 금융주가 리오프닝과 가치 랠리에서 수혜 가능. 유럽 금융주가 가치 트레이드의 진원지라는 언급. - 국내 경기민감주는 초기 단계이며 아직 과열되지 않았다고 판단. [기술주·성장주 비중] - 기술·성장 섹터가 시가총액의 약 2/3를 차지, 기관 자금 운용의 기준이 되는 섹터. - 시장을 이기려면 경기민감 노출 23~30%가 필요하다는 견해. 에너지는 연초 대비 약 30% 상승, 고객 중 에너지 비중은 극소수. [코로나·경기 재개] - 코로나 변이는 여전히 불확실하나, 플로리다 등 개방 주의 경제는 호조. 노스다코타·사우스다코타는 접종률 60% 이상에서 확진 95% 감소. - 재개방 낙관이 충분치 않고 실질 투자 지출 중심의 재건 국면이라는 역발상 시각 제시. [출연자 추가 전망 (Karen 측 대화 후)] - 미국 GDP 성장률이 6~7%까지 나올 수 있으나 시장 컨센서스는 약 4%로 과소평가. 1.9조 달러 부양책 이후 약 10조 달러 지출, 여름 중반 인프라 법안 가능성 언급. - 인플레이션이 과소평가되어 있어 가치주 매수 필요하다는 결론.
다듬은 글
our next guest believes the tech wreck is far from over tom lee is head of research at fundstart global advisors and a cnbc contributor tom always good to see you um you have said the tech trade is done is that what in fact we are witnessing right now uh yeah i think tech's leadership um which was so astounding for the past decade i think we're seeing a new leadership emerge i think that's one of the things that is sort of central to our thinking is what is the market telling us and the leadership of energy and the financials and cyclicals to us is is really telling us that a vigorous economic recovery is underway these growths these cyclicals could turn into growth stocks which means traditional growth stocks aren't as shiny and as interesting does that um necessarily mean i mean tom if you believe in all these sort of growthy cyclical not excuse me not growthy but leverage to the growth story i should say um names are going to go higher and that's where the leadership is does that necessarily mean that inflation will in fact go higher as well and so will bond yields uh well i think uh we're struggling with what that means and i think the market is because inflation has essentially been eradicated from the markets thinking for the last 12 years and i think that's why there's this hyper sensitivity to both rates and inflation expectations but you know i think the fed's been pretty clear if energy rises or commodity prices surge and it causes cpi to rise that's not really inflation it'll show up in cpi but what they're worried about really is a change in how people's inflation expectations are anchored i think that's going to take quite a lot of time so i think you have a a period where the economy could run really hot that's why the cyclicals are rallying but it's not something that's going to force the fed's hand and i know the bond market's been testing the fed but that's really the question that's a key question so tom i'm in i'm in your camp i've been playing the value trade as well are you playing what i've been doing is playing uh european levered value plays especially in the chemical space europe has lagged and they have a bigger leverage towards a reopening trade because they're based more on tourism than we are are you thinking about that dynamic uh i'm here it's interesting because it has led uh you know we did a little global sort of look look around for our clients yesterday and the leadership for equities has come out of china korea and japan those have really led the turn and then we're starting to see like chile and then u.s cyclicals sort of start to participate so to me it feels like domestic cyclicals are really early and turning up and they're not extended but eventually i agree i think then it would lead to european financials um starting to rally because you know they're the they're the epicenter of the value trade within europe tom it's karen let me ask you something if you think this rotation is really happening and uh tech is going to be sort of a somewhat of an anchor on the market do you think the market as a whole will rise uh yeah it's a dilemma tech tech and growth is 67 or two-thirds of the market cap and it's really what builds careers for most institutional investors so growth stocks are really what the professional money manager trades and understands i i think there's a chance that growth just does okay jeff degraff mentioned that because there's money flowing into the market but for someone to have beat the market outperform it's really that 23 or 30 percent cyclical exposure that's going to do it and of course energy is an example energy is up 30 percent this year i would say out of our entire client base maybe five percent have dabbled in energy most have actually essentially zero weight in the energy sector most think it's just an annoying little group that's risen you know tom it's interesting that consensus is now that the economy is going to come roaring back and so you know i want to go to the contrarian uh thinking on this and that would be so many states are are you know lifting their restrictions now and while president biden moved up the timeline on getting u.s adults vaccinated to the end of may there's still that critical time period and the variants are still out there is that a possib you know a possible sort of caveat to this whole forecast of yours uh yeah i mean kovit's unpredictable it's super dangerous the variants are out there um so nobody can say kovitz been vanquished but if you look at a state like florida uh that's been open really relatively open for a while their economy has actually been quite booming and then if you look at states like north dakota and south dakota where the prevalence of covet plus the amount of vaccinations is over 60 percent they've seen a 95 drop in cases i mean south dakota now has like less than 100 per day and so those economies as they open also have what appears to be a lot less risk so i i might say that the contrarian view would be people aren't this isn't people aren't bullish enough about the reopening because this is really like a post-war reconstruction period with government stimulus that is extremely boomy for real investment spending which is the biggest multiplier to gdp wow tom always great to get your thoughts thank you yeah thanks tom lee a fun strat wow people might not be bullish enough grosso which says to me inflation inflation inflation i don't know about you it does and if you if you look at we talked about spending we're on the first relief bill uh of the biden administration and we're talking about i've thrown that number out there of 10 trillion dollars in spending coming we haven't even spoken about infrastructure that'll be probably coming in the middle of the summer you're looking at gdp probably of six to seven percent all the street is focused on is about four percent they've underestimated that inflation is coming and that's why you want to buy valu
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