Jim Cramer on rate-driven market sell-off: 'Let's keep things in perspective'

요약 보기

결론: 금리 상승에 따른 성장주 급락은 과도할 수 있으니 시장을 균형 있게 보자는 취지다. 최근 채권시장 급락(10년물 금리 상승)이 성장주를 강타했다. 엔비디아는 실적이 매우 좋았음에도 약 10% 하락했고, 금리 변동이 종목 자체의 실적보다 더 큰 영향을 미쳤다. 10년물 금리는 약 1.46%에서 고점 1.61% 부근까지 올랐으며, 성장주 중심의 조정은 수주간 이어졌다. 은행주는 상대적 수혜를 받았다. 스플렁크, 펠로톤 등은 고점 대비 30% 이상 하락했다. 크레이머는 과매도 후 가치주(애플, 페이스북, 트위터 언급)로 관심이 이동할 수 있다고 봤으나 구체적 매수 지시는 없다. 모기지 금리는 3%대 초반 수준이며 역대 최저(2.65%)보다는 높지만 최근 몇 달 중 가장 높다. 그러나 채권·모기지 시장의 수요가 강해 금리 상승 속도는 예상보다 느릴 것이라고 본다. 리스크: 금리가 계속 오르면 성장주 추가 하락 가능성이 있으며, 금리 상승이 주택시장 등 경기에 미치는 영향은 불확실하다. 출연자 전망: 과매도 국면에서 가격 반등 가능성은 언급했으나 기간을 특정하지 않았다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. a lot of corporate news to get to but jim just a macro view of the market as we look at what the dow's done over the past 24 hours you know a lot of commentary from some traders saying yesterday at least in the bond market was the craziest day of trading they've seen outside of crisis days in a long time you feel that way yes i've got to tell you that the panic that went through many stocks let's take nvidia i thought nvidia is one of the best quarters they far exceeded everything particularly in data center and the stock went down almost 10 percent and why well i had jensen wong you know i think he's brilliant but it was the bomb market the bomb market was the villain uh sales force bomb market villain i mean it was almost as if it didn't matter what you had to say and how good what mattered was the ten year the seven year david at one point the five year was crushing a lot of good stocks yeah well listen it's the it's uh it's growth stocks and growth stocks with high with with yields moving higher were the ones and have been by the way not just yesterday jim but for a period of a number of a period of weeks now getting hit um losing ground as hard as it is to imagine actually going down as you look at we're at 146 but we hit what 161 i think yesterday was our high and yield on the tenure um uh meanwhile the banks obviously are our beneficiaries and they've been quite strong over that period as we've pointed out many times isn't it time that ran its course well that was my question to you is it i think it is my chapel trust sold some of these i mean really if you're going to have inflation you can't hide in the banks they don't it doesn't work uh yes it can work for jay farner and rocket mortgage right but at a certain point if you really want to extrapolate things i mean business will dry up i mean that's what's supposed to happen and when does this rotation out of growth stocks or at least slow down and or reverse if we use the december of 2015 to feb second parade uh really i think that is the great analog because you had a rate hike you have another month where people are skittish about these stocks particularly david the companies that say you know what we don't care how much we spend we're growing that works so great when rates are going lower but people just despise it when rates are going higher it's the common thread of the companies who that are really getting crushed here yeah and of course i mean carl we always want to put it in perspective we look at 146.

02. i know we all remember a time during the last i mean boom of course which we referred to many times in the late 90s carl you can remember where rates were then they were multiples higher than they are now but to put it in perspective it's higher than we've been in a while uh yeah a 30-year fixed guys is going to have a three handle before much longer of course it was 265 back in i think well the all-time low was 265 but it's the highest now that it's been since august jim uh to follow on david's question you know names like splunk and uh peloton down 30 plus from the highs right i mean does the does the inverse of your of your financial thesis work do you buy them here uh i don't know i mean kathy wood's been selling splunk uh she seems to sell it she has some sort of printing press of splunk it seems to go by every day uh i kathy wood being the premier growth investor of this of this moment uh look i think that we're going to get oversold and you have to start looking at value uh but you know what value is now value is something like apple which has come down furiously it's like facebook it's just come down horribly and the businesses i mean twitter is having a good quarter and people are just saying listen i can't touch facebook facebook's very cheap david by the way you'll probably want to know i got a three and a half uh floating yesterday yeah i heard you mentioned that on squawk three and a half floating well like five year average okay got it but right you know what two weeks ago it was the same rate so let's not panic if you're trying to divine the toll brothers quarter it's not going to impact jay farner this morning not going to impact so i think your original issue about 1.6 where things are yeah let's keep things in perspective the rates are not moving nearly as much as you would expect yet because i think that the mortgage people just don't believe in it interesting and the mortgage market has its own i mean mortgage-backed securities there's there's different things that affect it not just the overall right rate uh as anybody who sort of looked and said hey can i lock in lower now and they're like no sorry no and it also has to do with demand and certain at search but demand is so strong david yeah it's so strong