Jim Cramer predicts peak inflation is here, reacts to RH's lowered outlook

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결론: 인플레이션 정점은 지났다고 보지만 경기침체 우려로 시장 심리는 아직 바닥이 아니다. 거시 상황: 올해 상반기는 1970년 이후 최악이며, 선물은 물가 둔화에도 하락 중이다. 근원 PCE는 4.7% 상승, 10년물 금리 3.02%, 2년물 2.95% 수준이다. 중앙은행: 연준 발언이 여전히 긴박함을 강조해 경기침체 우려를 키운다는 평가다. 기업 실적: RH가 가이던스를 하향했고 베드배스앤비욘드, 리스토레이션하드웨어와 함께 시장 분위기를 어둡게 했다. 월가는 목표주가를 대폭 낮추는 중이다. 심리: 모든 것이 하락한다는 비관이 커져 Cramer는 이 공포가 최고조에 달해야 바닥이 나온다고 본다. 소매·소비: 백화점과 몰 소매는 여전히 부진하며, 콜스는 반등 근거가 없다고 봤다. 메이시스는 실적이 좋았지만 회복은 전반적이지 않다. 종목: 윌리엄스소노마는 RH와 다르지만 게리 프리드먼이 먼저 경고했다는 점을 언급했다. 아메리칸익스프레스는 140달러 아래로 떨어졌다. 기타: 제트블루의 스피릿 인수 시도와 정부의 방산·출판 합병 제동을 언급했다.

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01. we finally get to put to bed today the worst first half of the year since 1970 futures are red despite another cooler than expected inflation print and core pce up 4-7 bonds rally 10-year 302 the two-year is back to 295 jim so we had german cpi this week umish revised and now this are you can we definitively say peak inflation's here uh i think yes but i also think that when you listen to what the central banker said yesterday they still speak in terms of ultra urgency which then gets everyone worried obviously about a recession i have marty museum listen paychecks is a terrific ceo there's a 30 page conference call and it's all great great great great and then there's one line which is you know of course it can't continue if there's a recession and it was like the wolves just the wolf pack went against him and we were talking about how the fact that everything was going well but he felt he had to say that but that was the tenor and now people are all cutting their price targets i think that's what's consumed people that in the end we were bookended yesterday by bed bath and beyond in restoration hardware now rh and we left here just stolen and gloomy uh well i mean it's funny because rh was one of the initial earnings calls that said look out ahead and now the second guide lower in the course of a month gym didn't buy stock and got a big spy back and gary uh gary freeman it was just a one you know just released saying things are bit when he first started he was the first to say uh to talk about mortgage rates doubling first say that luxury home sales were down but also first to say that all these things like ukraine are changing the way the stock market so gary's got the zeitgeist now i i wanted gary to come on he did he did not come on people have different things to do but uh he's come on multiple times and the emphasis is kind of how a lot of people feel right now he was ahead of us which is that stocks aren't going up uh bond's not that great a deal the future is worse than the past uh everybody if it's a stock therefore it goes down i mean you know i'm doing research on stocks and i'm like saying what am i doing as the stock goes down so why why am i bothering to do research that's where we are that typically has actually led to a a better moment but only because everyone's got negative and i just think we're still not there yet but on that crescendo that the late mark haynes used to talk about so you think there's some people who are not negative enough exactly i mean we need any every strategist to embrace mike wilson like you know i mean 3 400 yes mr wilson mr wilson everyone and by the way there are people who say listen if we don't go to 3 900 today uh it's katie bar the door well i mean every single price target that i see is so far away from where a stock is it's incredible and i'm doing work today and say okay so what happens if bed bath can't pay its leases well who gets hurt i mean i haven't done that kind of work since the great recession i mean it it's this is just a not great time right not a great time right um yeah as for you you're right about some leftover positivity wells is defending rh today cowan's target remains 300 uh they're growth they're operating margin guidance jim also 21 5 at the midpoint now they were in the mid-20s 24.

02. this is a tremendous place to shop with all the way back it is a a they had big expansion plans for this year i'd like to know whether they feel like they've got to pull some back gary friedman's amazing operator and now immediately people say well you got to sell william sonoma because it's very different they're very different but i just think that that gary called it first uh i think retail's terrible i look at something like kohl's and say well wasn't there supposed to be a deal kohl's i don't see a deal i look at macy's after a great quarter it's all the way back anything in the mall is just a disaster and i and then some people say listen uh it's because everyone's traveling well if that's the case why is american express down under 140 i think the answer is is that everybody's confused uh you you want to take a trip and then you hear phil labo say that your plane's been canceled it's like like i literally when i if i want to go on a trip i would book like five different airlines and then of course the the biggest joke of all the punchline is that jetblue wants to buy spirit when the government's trying to block a deal between two defense contractors and they still haven't even start the trial of simon and schuster merging amendments so i mean the government doesn't want any merch