저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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캐시 우드는 2030년 비트코인 100만~150만 달러 도달 가능성을 주장하며, 현물 ETF 승인과 해시레이트·활성 사용자 증가를 근거로 제시한다. 비트코인을 슘페터식 파괴적 혁신 자산이자 신뢰 기반 금융을 대체할 기술로 보고, 장기 보유(hodl)를 권장한다. 영상은 ARK의 과거 테슬라 투자 성과와 2020년 급락을 함께 언급하며 변동성은 성과의 대가라고 서술한다.
다듬은 글
one Bitcoin for $1.5 million in 2030 is what Kathy Wood said on January 11th on CNBC just a few hours after the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF in the US we believe that the probability of our prediction has significantly increased with this as the SEC approval is the green light we were waiting for here are her own words according to her the significant increase in global hash rate the amount of a liquid Bitcoin and the evolution of active users on the network show that the technology perfectly follows the footsteps of other disruptive Technologies and the value of Bitcoin should explode in the coming years even though it's a very complicated metric to determine it is estimated that there are as many Bitcoin users today as there were internet users just before the 2000s so one Bitcoin at over a million dollar before the next decade absurd or possible stay with us until the end of the video you will understand who Kathy Wood is and why her prediction may not be as absurd as it seems Kathy Wood was born on November 26th 1955 in Los Angeles to a family of Irish immigrants with a military father she received a religious education and earned her bachelor's degree in 1974 3 years later she graduated in economics and finance from the University of Southern California with a very special mention given to the top 1% of graduates after her studies Cathy began her financial career at the capital group one of the world's three largest Pension funds she stayed there for 3 years and then moved in 1980 to start her Adventure in New York at janison Associates a Wall Street investment firm managing over $175 billion she would remain there for 18 years years in 2001 she took her career to the next level by joining Alliance Bernstein another investment fund but managing almost $800 billion this time she became Chief investment officer and that's when Kathy Wood style is growing and starting to make waves on Wall Street she is a risk taker who favors High returns despite the associated risks for her the most important thing is the expectation of gross gain the approach garnered her many criticisms during the 2008 financial crisis as the funds she had responsibility for performed even worse than benchmarks but Kathy Wood persevered and signaled that she is convinced her strategy is the best for the long term unfortunately Peter Krauss the president and CEO of Alliance Bernstein at the time didn't see things the same way Kathy Wood left the fund in 2013 and created Ark invest a few months later this time taking the lead and finally having the freedom to implement her own investment strategy investing is defined as radically different from what investors may find in the market where we exclusively invest in disruptive Innovations here is her Mantra different from other investment funds that usually focus on analyzing the past to identify companies with short and medium-term yield prospects she guides her studies toward the future in search of what could be the next big thing this reminds me of one of Charles gaff's recent videos on his Channel The Institute of freedoms where he explains the two sources of economic growth on one hand there is what we call ricardian growth this is based on the law of comparative advantage basically it's an optimization of processes and markets through specialization if a country for example is more efficient or competent in producing a certain good or service compared to another then it should focus on that sector you gradually end up with carf iies in Germany and hotels for tourists in Spain it's very simplified so this is ricardian growth an increase in productivity through specialization and optimization of marginal processes on the other hand you have sharian growth based on the works of Joseph shumpeter here everything is based on Innovation and Entrepreneurship an economic phenomenon that this economist explained it's simple as the world evolves there are inventions and innovations that arise out of nowhere and question everything this is what Joseph shumpeter did destroying entire sectors of the economy to allow other companies to emerge this is how we can see sharian growth the Advent of the automobile for example in a few decades radically disrupted the entire horse and carriage related sector leading to the almost complete disappearance of actors associated with that old technology and this is what Kathy Wood is betting on putting everything on shumpeter the investment thesis is simple identify disruptive Innovations and the companies that use them best according to Arc invest for an innovation to be considered disruptive it should enable three things drastically reduce intersectoral costs and finally serve as the basis for the emergence of new Innovations in other words disruptive innovation should profoundly change our lifestyles and ways of working Arc invest is for example very interested in Technologies related to human genome sequencing energized stor AI driven robotics 3D printing space exploration and not least blockchain and fintech there is no focus on Apple Amazon Google or Microsoft but rather on Zoom Tesla coinbase Robin Hood or blockfi Define it as Innovations of Separation but they simply believe that the potential for returns is no longer sufficient although these companies have proven themselves so far the trees don't grow to the sky so you have to look for returns elsewhere in companies that haven't exploded yet as we said a little earlier Kathy Wood's investment strategy is unique and has already gained criticism she diverges deeply from the rest of the players with more classic strategies one of her most well-known bets that solidified her reputation and explains her exceptional performance is her recent Year's investment in Tesla at $15 in 2016 when almost no one was talking about Tesla stocks it is worth almost $200 today if you trusted her since the creation of her investment Fund in 2014 putting for example $110,000 in her three ETFs at the top of the last Bull Run you'd have $30,000 worth about $250,000 that's a performance of 830 in in contrast Arc invests approach is even more vulnerable to the market reversal from the top of the bubble in February 2020 a cumulative drop of 65% for these ETFs but as we repeat many times in our videos volatility is the price to pay for performance you can't expect to achieve significant multiples without a little shake that would be too easy in summary I think you're starting to understand Kathy Wood's character strong conviction obsessed with new technology IES and applications that result from them planning for the long term without being impressed by the extreme stock price volatility she claims that Kathy Wood has the perfect profile to be a Bitcoin hodler when you dig a bit to discover the relationship between Kathy and Arc invest with Bitcoin you realize it's a subject that has concerned them for many years for the first research article she publishes on her site linked with Satoshi nakamoto's invention date of 2015 the paper deals with protecting the network by miners and the specific issues of this matter reading it we realize that their understanding of Mining and network operation is excellent they insist on the importance of geographical decentralization of miners to maintain Network resilience and also address the issue of transaction fees that should lead to the relay of subsidiary blocks in the long run they express a critical opinion on the matter even allowing themselves to make a proposal for improving Bitcoin proposal in some way to solve the problem of the 1.2% basic fee on all Bitcoin transactions to sufficiently encourage miners to protect the network they published a new article in 2017 this time discussing the uniqueness of Bitcoin as a financial asset according to them it is absolutely necessary to define a new framework to grasp the Bitcoin asset and allow the local implementation of specific regulation for this unique object we we believe that the volatility jargon is a malicious technique prices and sensationalist media have discouraged much of the general public from addressing what could be the greatest technological development of the entire internet you can find on their website no less than 20 monthly reports 19 published blogs 17 episodes of their podcasts seven white papers and six episodes of their public brainstorming all dedicated to bitcoin its techn techology its development prospects but also its ecosystem and community so I understand that Arc invest has been interested in Bitcoin for many years not just as an asset but especially for the technological object it is in 2020 they publish two new research articles that go even further Arc explains how the technical characteristics of Bitcoin make its emergence in a financial World obvious based on trust a according to them the fragility of the current Financial system stems from a model based solely on centralized institutions in the occurrence of central banks commercial Banks and human payment processors create an unpredictable environment for economic activity in this trust-based model the Integrity of an institution depends on those who control it the rules imposed from the top down are guaranteed if those responsible for the processes are trustworthy decision-making is a matter of discretion for those who wield power as institutions are gaining importance entities that control them accumulate more power potentially engaging in harmful behaviors according to Arc Bitcoin could completely change how a financial system distributes trust eliminating the roles of various institutions relying on centralized authorities and thus creating an ecosystem based on it and cryptography in this article they also mention the fact fact that Bitcoin allows you to regain control of your inheritance a crucial feature in jurisdictions where property rights are not recognized or enforced according to Arc Bitcoin is the most robust tool in the asset protection Spectrum better than real estate cash or even gold it is true that we truly understand the power of these new technologies when we take possession removing intermediaries and minimizing counterparty risks monong Bitcoin ik block F Celsius FTX history repeats itself cycle after cycle if you're interested in taking control of your cryptocurrencies we have a free training prepared to guide you and properly secure your cryptocurrencies as explained earlier the reason Arc invest selects disruptive technologies that will change our way of life and for them Bitcoin perfectly fits that definition unlike some Wall Street players who consider Bitcoin primarily a highly volatile speculative asset set AR invest has been investing in it for several years because according to them it is truly a revolutionary technological invention Satoshi Nakamoto allows a significant reduction in costs and presents applications that transcend sectors and serve as a basis for other Innovations in a podcast Kathy explains that what initially attracted her to bitcoin was the development of open-source code she explains that a technology developing in this organ way has a better success rate but above all a development Pace Superior to technology developed in a closed Manner and in an interview with CNBC after the approval of ETFs Cathy states that Bitcoin is a public good it is the zero layer of the internet if you thought you were optimistic Cathy the Wall Street maximalist is even more so than you as she said at the beginning of the video she sees Bitcoin above a million dollars by 2030 according to her Bitcoin is one of the most significant Investments of Our Lives if you want to understand why Satoshi nakamoto's invention is not just to revolutionize money and finance but also the entire electricity production and management sector subscribe to the channel for more videos like this video and see you next time
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