저자: VincentDesiano · 외국인
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2021년 10월 14일 S&P500 하락추세 돌파를 근거로 엔비디아 11/19 215콜을 매수. 시장 바닥 판단, 엔비디아 수요·기술적 지지선 근거. 옵션 약 800% 수익 상태로 최종 2주 남은 계약 보유 여부/행사 여부를 고민 중. 엔비디아 1조달러 시총은 주가 약 400달러 필요 언급.
다듬은 글
today we are obviously going to have to talk about the insane move that we saw today on nvidia for those that are unaware back on october 14th i purchased some november 19th 215 calls on nvidia with a plan looking for potential upside i get a lot of questions what made you hold this long what did you see in the stock why did you enter when you did and how are you still holding this as you watching video go higher and higher in today's video i want to break down the plan that i had entering this trade i want to break it down from a to b to c to d all the way through my total plan why i got in what did i see in the market what do i believe you know is the future for nvidia a lot about nvidia i am very bullish on this stock there's a lot of reasons that i want to talk about in today and not only that the technicals that i saw back in october to make me believe that this stock would move higher so let's just go ahead and totally talk about this trade there's a very distinct plan that i had behind this trade and when you go into a trade with a plan it is much easier to hold because you have beliefs you have conviction you have ideas of what you want to see and that is what i went ahead and did on this trade up over 800 today so let's go ahead and break this down today i hope you guys enjoy this video press the bell down below to stay tuned for more videos all right guys so here we go let's go ahead and break down my entire trading plan on nvidia let's break this down let's talk about what i saw in the market why i chose nvidia how i've been able to hold this long everything from the beginning to now almost coming up to the end we have about two weeks left on this contract it's going to be a sad day when i go ahead and sell it because it has performed so great but i am going to have to decide i also will have to decide whether i want to exercise this contract i'm about 85 dollars in the money just around there so i could potentially own 100 shares of nvidia back at 215 so let me know down below guys in the comments would you take your profits you'll see the profits that i'm up about 800 percent or would you go ahead and exercise the contracts and own 100 shares of nvidia for potential upside you guys let me know what you think i should do in the comments but let's go ahead and start on your screen you are looking at the s p 500 now why am i showing you the s p 500 when we talk about nvidia the s p 500 we are going to zoom back in time back to the 14th of october the 14th of october guys is this daily candle here on your screen i'm gonna go ahead and zoom in and just focus in on the dip that we saw back uh back in september and october right here this daily candle is october 14th now i made it very clear in a youtube video here on my channel that i believe that the market did bottom that was my plan i saw the market i thought it was bottoming and i wanted to go ahead and look for a position that i could take advantage of the market upside so i had that conviction that was part of my trading plan i said okay i believe the market has bottomed i like the inverse head and shoulders that i've talked about plenty of times here on the es i've talked about the downtrend breakout that we went ahead and saw on the 14th and when i saw that i knew that we needed to be opportunistic here and we needed to look for market upside it's not every day that you get an eight percent pullback on the market and you get to take advantage of a huge move higher from the breakout of that day it was a very clean breakout of the downtrend on the market and i believe that we would move higher i made that very clear here on the channel that was my first plan so coming into that and believing that the market was going to bottom it makes me want to get into position and it makes me want to hold it for a long period of time right because i believe that there was upside from october 14th i believe that there was upside on this market so i first of all want to get a long-dated contract something with time that i won't panic out of that i can hold for multiple days because i thought this would be a multiple day move and of course it's been more than a multiple day this is about a three week move that we are currently seeing here on the market so this has worked out great in hindsight right so square one step one of the of the trading plan was where did i believe the market was going to bounce the 10th the 14th of october that was the day that i entered nvidia and that was the day that i believed that the s p 500 as well as with the nasdaq we're starting to find their bottom and move back to the upside so that is the step that is step one i believe that the market was bottoming and i had the confidence and the conviction to hold the position long term something that some people you know out there may not make trading plans that way right maybe you're just coming into every single day looking for a quick scalp maybe you're just looking for a day trade you're not really making a formulated plan around the trade nvidia was a trading plan this was not just supposed to be you know a one day trade a two-day trade this was a longer dated full-on trading plan and it worked out beautifully so that's step one right now nvidia let's go ahead and talk specifically about nvidia why did i go ahead and choose nvidia on you know for my market bounce stock right because i was thinking which stock did i want to go with i think the market's going to bottom here i think it's going to move higher what stock do i want to take advantage of that with i didn't want to just buy qqq calls i wanted to take advantage of a specific stock and that i went ahead and i chose nvidia now there's two reasons the first reason was technicals which we'll get into in just a second the second reason was the macroeconomic factors behind choosing nvidia if you guys think about it right now nvidia in my opinion you may disagree is the most in-demand company probably in the world right now it is the most in demand product you can't get their products there is so much demand for them you can't get it for retail price you can't get any graphics card for retail price we know this from people that are building computers very you know small ma micro retailer right uh you know consumer level type stuff uh building computers um you know building with with their graphics cards very difficult to get their products the second they make them they're gone so extreme demand now on top of that we know what's going on with chip shortages we know that the future of the metaverse if facebook really does what they say the future of any type of technology in the future it's all going to be around graphics cards graphics cards are probably the most important things that we could foresee the most important technology in my opinion into our future right maybe over the next 10 years i really do see that graphics cards invidious core business is one of the most in-demand things in the world right now and when i realized that when i really thought about that you know in bed at night thinking about why is nvidia you know not absolutely going crazy right now why is nvidia i mean it's the most in-demand product in my opinion i was very confident about this i was very uh decisive about that and i had that conviction behind the nvidia stock because i just saw how much demand there was for that product right so that was my macro economic thought process wanting to choose nvidia now the technical reasons you guys can see i mean this was just a fantastic trendline hold right here right one two and three a beautiful trend line hold uh three times touching the trend line 100 sma and on the 14th of october guys which is right here after we broke out of this little downtrend that we went ahead and saw that was my signal to go ahead and get in this position right so that was my signal i don't need to bring this up i mean i will again it's in the discord chat if i go back to 10 14 where are we 10 14 i'll go ahead and pop this up for you guys right here nvidia right here guys 10 14 november 19 215 call i got in for eight dollars and 20 cents right that was my entry this is where we went ahead and started this fantastic trade here congratulations to everyone in the discord today um today i think together almost a hundred thousand dollars in profits for the whole squad uh so fantastic day uh just absolutely unbelievable um about a hundred and two thousand dollars uh for everyone combined i'm sure there's more in here but shout out to all of you guys that took this trade with me it was absolutely incredible um so technicals back in the october now i wasn't so confident on nvidia alone right it was not just nvidia technicals it was market technicals right so the s p 500 the nasdaq i loved the nasdaq and the s p 500 formations i love the inverse head and shoulders the downtrend breakout on the s p 500 and this i believed would obviously follow the market nvidia usually follows the market and that is why i chose nvidia the technicals on video were solid the technicals on the market were solid i thought the market was gonna bounce and i had a very strong conviction around nvidia in general because of their products because of the demand for their products and uh at this point guys the rest is quite history i want to go ahead after this talk more about what has made me hold this for so long so before we do that i'll go ahead and pop up the profits for you guys to see the position i'm in um i did go ahead and sell one of my two uh my one of my two contracts before amd earnings i'll pop up the orders uh when i sold when i bought um so you guys can see everything but i did sell i had two i started out with two i did sell one before amd earnings just to lock in some profits i was a little bit uneasy around the amd earnings wasn't sure if that was going to affect uh nvidia in any way so i didn't want to go in with my full size into that uh into that potential sympathy move on nvidia so i did unload one there but i definitely wanted to hold at least one more to see if there was more upside and i thank god every day that i did go ahead and hold one right so now you guys can see today just pretty much a parabolic move up over 12 at one point i think it was up over 16 so a huge move right and we're back here at 215 we are about 85 in the money um so it is a very very big move since the entry here on nvidia now i want to talk about why i've continued to hold this last contract right and and it really comes down to the daily chart guys there has not been a single day on the daily chart that nvidia has showed me any type of concerning technical factors there has not been a single reversal a single downtrend a single breakdown of previous levels it's been on a daily basis a move higher a move higher and as long as i see that guys there is just absolutely no reason to get out of a position like this if you had conviction if you have a plan if you believe that nvidia is a strong stock and should move higher there is the conviction that i needed to continue to hold this right if you guys see this daily chart here on your screen which candle here would make you you know panic out of a position that you had a plan of continuing to hold so if you guys have problems of you know getting out of positions too soon i think it most likely stems from either being in too large of size not being comfortable with your position or two just simply not having a plan around your trade you don't know where you should get out you don't know where you're gonna take profits you don't know you know what's going on you just jump in you hope for the best and you know that makes you very uneasy that makes you get out of positions that are actually very very good so in this situation i had the plan i wanted to hold this this was something that i wanted to continue to hold and there's not a single day that i come into the stock market and think about even think about selling this position because there's just not a single day here that makes you think the technicals break down i'm not using my p l as my stop loss or my take profit i am using the technical factors as my take profit at this point i don't care how much money i make i don't care if it hits a price target all i care about is if the technicals hold up as long as they do i will continue to hold this position right so that is where i'm at right now i've continued to hold for the last two to three weeks there has not been a single reason to sell out of this and i continue to hold my last contract now moving forward there is going to be a few decisions that i have to make here in the coming two weeks right number one is earnings nvidia earnings they are approaching do i want to hold this into earnings the answer to that is most likely not that is not something i am interested in the second thing that i need to decide is do i exercise these contracts own the 100 shares at 215 or do i take my profits i move on and i look for maybe another opportunity on nvidia post earnings that would be the other opportunity right the third is do i consider just taking my profits here after this parabolic move do i think there is more upside after this parabolic move that we saw today i believe that we should see a little bit of a pullback right that is probably something that we will see uh do i think there is more upside i absolutely do um after seeing this move after seeing the strength in this stock the price target increases the positivity around nvidia i definitely believe there is more upside on this stock in the longer term right today we went ahead and calculated what would make nvidia be a trillion dollar market cap and it comes in right around 400 a share why is nvidia not a trillion dollar company right you got tesla apple um i think microsoft a few others right i'm sorry i'm not you know totally uh inverse with all the trillion dollar market caps but why is nvidia not there right could nvidia be the next club the club member of the trillion dollar market cap companies it very well could be the stock would have to be around 400 a share so does that happen by the time of my expiration most likely not um so those are some decisions that i have to make here coming up soon guys i'll make sure to update you guys on that i'm not looking forward to those decisions because i really hate to get rid of this position this is probably the best trade in my career um it's not the largest percent trade but it is the most is most definitely the best trade from a to b with a plan with conviction with an idea that worked out beautifully like this so i am very happy uh with this trade one more thing that i wanted to go ahead and you know go over i have this over here on my screen just making a checklist is the risk management that i had coming into this trade and that was another factor that made me be able to hold as long as i did right so i went into this position with an amount that i was willing to lose when i go into a trade with an amount that i am willing to lose i do not care about pullbacks i don't get panicked because even if it goes to 10 100 loss i am totally okay so that's another thing to consider guys going into positions with you know an amount that you're okay with losing 100 percent maybe that will allow you to hold longer because that allows you to go ahead and not panic over small dips in the market small dips on the stock because when you went into the trade your plan was to lose 100 anyway so even if you give back a few percentage points it's not a big deal but when you go into something with too much money you panic you get out early maybe when you should not have and that's usually what leads to you guys looking back and saying why did i get out right so i know a lot of talking in this one guys if you made it this far uh you know thank you for listening i hope you guys enjoyed this little breakdown my trading plan around nvidia i will keep you guys updated congratulations to anyone that caught this with me let's go ahead and wrap up this video alright guys so that is going to be it for today's video if you enjoyed it press the like button subscribe to the channel i know it was a long one so thank you so much for listening if you guys want to join the discord chat where i post all of my trades the link is the first in the description this is not a signal service this is a legit trading community a community of traders that help each other on a daily basis i do post my trades but they're not just signals i post my analysis my technicals everything that i like about the trade either a win or a loss i am fully transparent there so i hope you guys do decide to join us if you do first link down in the description below thank you guys again for listening and i hope to see you in the next one peace
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