원문 보기
so a very nice rally to finish off last week as we expected in our previous videos which if you are new here just subscribe below is free we pump all these out on wednesday and sunday of every week uh but i do want to bring up some things for this week uh to kind of that are notable because there's a potential that we could have a end to this kind of mini rally that we are seeing right now and one of the things i do want to bring up is the fact we have a head and shoulders on the hourly chart so the hourly chart gives us a better sense on what can happen slightly in a slightly longer term sense than the 15 minute which i like to look at and also the daily or at least it'd be the middle of the the 15 minute in the daily but you can see here we have a head and shoulders pattern left shoulder right here we have the head and the right shoulder and then we fell down below the key level of roughly like 406 407 once we fell below we had a lot more to go down until we did have a base around a previous key support which you can see here very very key support um that goes all the way back to kind of before we even gap down big over here uh it's been a key resistance one two and three times until we broke above uh and then also acted as support afterwards so obviously this is gonna act as some form of support uh when it re-tests in the future which it did this week so this is gonna be a very very key pivot especially this month of september if this breaks to the downside decisively especially with the daily candle there's going to be a lot more downside and that will be our confirmation that we are most likely going to fall to the lower end or close to the lower end of this downward channel that we have so you can see around like 370 right now is the downward channel uh if we go with time or as time kind of passes this will go lower and lower because of the angle of the line but you can see here the top of this the resistance is starts all the way back at the all-time high level uh you can see the perfect pivot right here as a resistance and we had a big sell-off off of here this third time that it touched so the bottom end of it starts all the way back here uh previously back in september of 2021 so i can't even believe that was a year ago crazy to think that but it goes along these key pivots where we had big down days and big pickups off of it um and you can see here that it roughly is around like 370 365 at the moment and there's two variations of it but the first one is the one i'm paying attention to right now uh so this right here everybody is your pivot uh 389 roughly on spy 389.50 um so definitely mark this on your charts because bias aside on what i think this is your key pivot for if we're going to continue lower or if if we stay above here if we continue higher and at least re-test this top edge of the downward channel in the future so definitely mark this on your charts very very key here but also another thing i want to mention is last time we had kind of this size of a sell-off or at least a very swift sell-off was back here after the big march rally of 2022.
if you remember this rally we kind of started to sell off just a bit over here and then it started to get more aggressive just like it got back it got really aggressive back here after jacksonville meeting you can see here on the hourly chart comparison this stage right here very very aggressive selling over here very very aggressive selling again and then right after that aggressive selling kind of sold a little bit further down as you can see here and there was some chop but it based around this mid-range so you can see here this fits perfectly i'll just draw an arrow make it a bit easier to see here but this right here all of this in this range is the mid-range of this downward channel so you can see the top and the bottom here this is smack in the middle of both the bottom and the top of the range just like what's happening right here you can see there's a lot of volatility we had an upward move straight down off of that so a lot of volatile action the last like three days or at least three days of this week and then a big upside move very similar to how this played out a lot of choppy price action where we fell down back up back down up and then we had a big upward move with if you go to the daily candle here which i'll also reference a lot this daily candle ended very very very bullish this was fomc on may 4th of 2022 uh ended very bullish and then there was a big gap down the following day on may 5th which ended up being the deciding factor where we ended up falling down all the way to the lower end of the channel so you need to watch for something like this to happen if we have a very swift sell-off off of all this like choppy price action in the middle of this channel that we're in right now kind of like how we are right here if we had a big sell-off off of this that is something you need to watch out for because history doesn't have to repeat itself but it can when you see similar outcomes we saw a big rally here even larger than march but march was a rally we saw a big rally in july and then we had a swift sell off and you can see here we had a swift sell off so this is starting to be a very similar pattern to what we had earlier and again it doesn't have to happen it doesn't have to have the same exact outcome as we had back here but it's something to note you need to be very careful of this uh because this candle right here in itself if you traded a candle like this in any of the past 10 years you could you would almost always see continuation off of a candle like this this is super super bullish candle and the fact we gapped on the next day and just fell a lot lower is pretty crazy to think so you need to watch out for those kinds of traps uh over here because stuff like this trap bowls like crazy just because they get very bullish when you have just such a large candle that you can see here this was 3.05 percent on this day so you need to be very careful of stuff like that next thing i want to go over is the flow from last week from september 5th to today on sunday of september 11th uh this flow is crazy and i filtered it for over 1 million in premium the fact like this flow in september is probably some of the craziest we've seen maybe we saw some stuff similar in may uh kind of back when we were around this kind of like range over here we had the big update and then a lot more downside we saw a lot of puts coming in around may and may was pretty volatile as well this is probably like the first or second most amount of puts we've seen in terms of premium and how far out the money they are of all of this year and there's no surprise because seasonality says that september and october are very very bearish months in the s p 500 and just the markets in general so scrolling through some of these remember it's filtered for over 1 million premiums so every single one of these is over 1 million you can see there's so many like the premium side right here the premium tab is just insane like these two orders back to back you're at 11 million plus alone and these just these two prints right here 11 million plus of 385 strike that is very far out the money from where we are expiration is 10 21 that's literally like a month and a half from now so that's also crazy to think of and then all these that are highlighted here are above the ass they really wanted to get into these orders and hit the ask they went above the ask on these and you see a ton of these highlighted ones just scrolling down through all of them just crazy 380s right here and just like even just normal ones that you can see going down we see 390 even closer uh to strike for 11 18.
this is still a crazy print um but yeah just all of these just pretty insane amount of puts so definitely something to look at in itself uh you need to be careful because this is big money this is not just like your typical retail trader uh that's buying puts because they think oh all these new news articles are bad i need to buy puts right now these this is big money and they've been characteristically right all of this year you can go back into like look at our historical flow type this is what i used to do and this is like a 30 second tangent i'm gonna make but listen up to this i used to look back at historical flow and i used to back test how this type of flow on spy and also individual tickers back in like 20 20 20 21 i used to see how individual tickers uh and their flow corresponded to the price of a stock or individual ticker stock and also uh for an etf like spy or index spx and i used to see how it kind of like corresponded with the price afterwards and you can do that using our historical flow tab this is a very useful tool i don't think enough people are using this they just want to go to the options order flow and see oh there's a big spy order i need to follow that immediately with no regard to anything we're never going to tell you to just use one order i use order flow is like 10 to 15 percent of my thesis for what i think is going to happen for my bias that's pretty small it's still a very sizable amount but a lot of what i use is like a lot of other stuff like technical analysis is a huge one right there and also i like to use dark pools as well but you need to have your own setups and use this as a tool it's not your sole reason to get into a trade i cannot stress that enough but yeah this type of flow is just incredible to see and if we consistently keep seeing this and we're most likely going to see a consistent drop going forward and it just is a matter of time of when that drop will happen but you need to watch out for a lot of these puts i am looking at spy specifically there are a lot of ones in like apple and google as well which i do want to check out those charts really quick here for you guys um basically apple this is the the main kind of pattern we're in the middle again so again this is not a surprise that we're seeing a support around here you can see this got picked up three separate times around this 152 to 150 roughly five range so this is a small range but it's acted as a big demand as you can see back here so again no surprise we saw a bounce off of this and also by the way apple is showing relative weakness look at apple's daily chart and compare that to the s p 500 look at this huge bounce off s p 500 apple very very opposite of that we only saw a two-day pickup off of that so this is showing relative weakness not a good sign for the sp500 because this is starting to see kind of like a rebalancing in terms of how apple's performing right now so you definitely watch how apple's faring because it's the biggest uh holding in the in the nasdaq and also the s p 500 so when this thing is weak that's not good for people and also september is the worst month for uh apple historically so again yet another thing going against it right now but yeah you need to watch out for stuff like this so on this alternate view for apple which i've shown you guys probably more than the other one we have the support here of this channel and then the resistance of this channel and right now we are below the support yet again we had a weekly close below this part of the support of the channel that is not good for apple that is bearish uh the bulls would want to see a gap up above this channel to start off next week and also they want to hold it because it could still get rejected off of a gap up and fall lower down off of this but definitely watch both of these charts i shared with you apple is the main leader of the market right now you need to be careful when you see weakness like this in apple because that is going to correlate eventually to the spf 500 and that is mainly what i like to trade uh spx and spy so that's what i like to share with you guys in the market because it's helpful for every ticker that you can possibly trade because all of them follow to an extent the general market and you can also trade the svp 500 so i appreciate you guys watching this video today best of luck trading this week and i'll see you guys on wednesday for another video
Comments 0